|
|
Asian Session: Orderly Decline in Risk Sentiment
May 15, 2009 11:58 AM CEST
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.28 |  | | | NOK | 0.13 | | | | GBP | 0.12 | | | | CAD | 0.01 | |  | AUD | -0.14 | | | SEK | -0.19 | | | CHF | -0.21 | | | EUR | -0.25 | | | DKK | -0.28 | | | NZD | -0.97 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,265.02 | + 1.88 | | Hang Seng Index | 16,790.70 | + 1.50 | | Shanghai Index | 2,645.26 | + 0.20 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,380.72 | + 0.41 | | DAX Index | 4,735.82 | - 0.05 | | SMI Index | 5,371.11 | + 0.20 | | DJIA futures | 8,371.11 | + 0.20 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 926.35 | - 0.01 | | Silver | 14.06 | - 0.01 | | VIX | 31.37 | - 6.77 | | Crude wti | 58.81 | + 0.32 | | USD Index | 82.51 | + 0.28 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| GDP (Q1 Prov.) q/q(y/y) | -2.0%,-4.1 | -1.6%,-1.5 | EUR / 9.00 | | CPI (Apr Final) EU Harm. | 0.4%, 0.6% | 0.6% | EUR / 9.00 | | Core CPI (Apr) | 0.2%, 1.6% | 0.7%, 1.5 | EUR / 9.00 | | Consumer Prices (Apr) | 0.0%,-0.6% | -0.1%,-0.4 | USD / 12.30 | | Core Consumer Prices (Apr) | 0.1%, 1.8 | 0.2%, 1.8 | USD / 12.30 | | Empire State Manufacturing Index (May) | -12.0 | -14.7 | USD / 12.30 | | Net Foreign Purchase US Securities (Mar) | -- | -$97.0bn | USD / 13.00 | | Industrial Production (Apr) | -0.6% | -1.5% | USD / 13.15 | | Univ. of Michigan Cons. Conf. Index (May Prov.) | 67.0 | 65.1 | USD / 13.55 | | Banxico Interest Rate Announcement | 5.25% | 6.00% | MXN / 14.00 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8520
R 2: 0.8095
R 1: 0.7738
CURRENT: 0.7566
S 1: 0.7460
S 2: 0.7338
S 3: 0.7233
EURJPY
R 3: 134.80
R 2: 133.60
R 1: 132.40
CURRENT: 129.42
S 1: 128.87
S 2: 126.63
S 3: 124.40
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4880
R 2: 1.4803
R 1: 1.4745
CURRENT: 1.4667
S 1: 1.4500
S 2: 1.4446
S 3: 1.4270
|
|
Market Brief |
The Usd was generally stable in the Asian session. The EurUsd traded between 1.3576 and 1.3660, while the Jpy continues to be the primary recipient of swings in risk appetite. UsdJpy traded through the 95.78 resistance down to 94.95. The EurChf continues to consolidate about the 1.5000 level (despite Chf strength against the Usd) as SNB Roth's verbal intervention has kept the sellers sidelined. SNB's Jordan once again warned that the SNB does want any further Swiss franc appreciation against the euro and is decisively implementing the currency intervention policy. Only a surge in equity markets today would stop the markets from end the week lower, for the first time in nine weeks. The data flow coming out has been rather less supportive, but nonetheless investors were not too interested in a strong reality check in any form. Data continued to drive sentiment lower weak guidance on Q2 Japan machinery orders and soft NZ retail sales data today follow a potential turn in the US jobless claims trend yesterday. While in European session Germany reported a -3.8% contraction in Q1 GDP, worse than the -2.2% contraction in Q1. Declines in risk sentiment have been controlled and appetite managed to stage a minor recovery. Major Asian stock indices overnight were also firm, though major FX pairs generally traded in very tight ranges. Gold managed to continue its recent rally after knee jerk reaction to weak employment data out of the US . The spark of risk aversion that granted the dollar a boost early in the session dissipated as the day continued, based on better than expected corporate earnings from several major corporations (CA, etc.). Gold can hold a strong position between 875 and 950 as the flight to quality story provides a source of buyers, while inflation expectations grant gold the momentum needed to trade close to the historical highs. RSI was fairly stable with some choppiness in the signal line, but the general buying and selling signals are apparent. We saw a strong rally when the RSI dipped below 30, as technical Traders found this as an entry point to go long, consistent with our support and resistance levels.
|
|
US Session: Dollar Strength Faded After Reversion to Heightened Risk Appetite
May 15, 2009 4:11 AM CEST
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Aud | 0.93 | | | | Nok | 0.90 | | | | Nzd | 0.81 | | | | Sek | 0.69 | | | | Gbp | 0.53 | | | | Cad | 0.43 | | | | Dkk | 0.29 | | | | Eur | 0.29 | | | | Chf | 0.21 | | | | Jpy | 0.21 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| DJIA Index | 8,283.00 | - 0.05 | | S&P 500 Index | 888.50 | - 0.11 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,353.00 | - 0.06 | | FTSE futures | 4,336.00 | + 0.39 | | CAC 40 Index | 3,154.00 | - 0.08 | | DAX Index | 4,740.00 | + 0.21 | | SMI Index | 5,360.00 | + 1.90 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Crude wti | 58.77 | + 0.26 | | Gold | 925.93 | - 0.06 | | Silver | 14.04 | - 0.14 | | USD Index | 82.43 | + 0.18 | | VIX | 31.37 | - 6.78 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8520
R 2: 0.8098
R 1: 0.7738
CURRENT: 0.7514
S 1: 0.7460
S 2: 0.7337
S 3: 0.7233
EURJPY
R 3: 134.80
R 2: 133.60
R 1: 132.40
CURRENT: 129.80
S 1: 126.63
S 2: 124.40
S 3: 122.15
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4882
R 2: 1.4800
R 1: 1.4745
CURRENT: 1.4672
S 1: 1.4500
S 2: 1.4445
S 3: 1.4271
|
|
Market Brief |
FX Traders took long positions in the dollar following worst than expected jobless claims data in the US. The trend of risk aversion tapered off after corporate earnings within the tech sector, led by Apple, Intel, and Computer Associates. The positive news flushed the negative economic data released earlier in the session, and the dollar slid thereafter. Currency Pairs like Aussie, Kiwi, Cad, Nok, and Sek all benefited from the positive bias in the market. Crude oil continues to range trade between $57bbl and $60bbl, a significant pivot to the upside parallel to the overall uptrend in commodities. Gold followed suit as Traders looking to guard their portfolios from inflationary risk assumed long positions to support a price of $926oz. Bond yields continue to hold strong to levels below historical averages, the 2yr rate for example stands at 0.85% versus levels well above 1.00% in a normalized market environment. Until the yield curve reverses the steepening its undergone over the last year or so, a true extended bull market is not viable, supporting the dollar within current ranges against major currency pairs. Traders will be watching the Empire Manufacturing which is expected be at -12.00, and CPI data estimated to be released at -0.6%. The economic fundamentals will become increasingly significant in projecting price movements in the FX market as Investors move away from extreme risk aversion.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMNY makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|