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Asian Session: FT Reports of Potential US Ratings Downgrade
May 13, 2009 10:24 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | SEK | 1.29 |  | | | NOK | 1.18 | | | | AUD | 1.05 | | | | CAD | 0.78 | | | | NZD | 0.69 | | | | DKK | 0.64 | | | | EUR | 0.60 | | | | CHF | 0.48 | | | | GBP | 0.23 | |  | JPY | -0.17 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,340.49 | + 0.45 | | Hang Seng Index | 17,046.03 | - 0.67 | | Shanghai Index | 2,663.77 | + 1.74 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,421.05 | - 0.10 | | DAX Index | 4,859.54 | + 0.11 | | SMI Index | 5,347.44 | + 0.02 | | DJIA futures | 8,428.00 | - 0.09 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 927.18 | + 0.41 | | Silver | 14.31 | + 0.49 | | VIX | 31.80 | - 3.22 | | Crude wti | 59.73 | + 1.49 | | USD Index | 82.03 | - 0.34 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Claimant count unemployment apr | 79.3 | 73.7 | GBP / 8.30 | | ILO unemployment rate % mar | 6.9 | 6.7 | GBP / 8.30 | | Industrial Production | -1.0 | -2.3,-18.4 | EUR / 9.00 | | Import Price | 0.4,-16.9 | 0.5,-14.9 | USD / 12.30 | | Retail Sales apr | -1.0,-9.7 | -1.2,9.6 | USD / 12.30 | | Retail Sales x-auto | 0.0,-6.8 | -1.2,-9.6 | USD / 12.30 | | Business Inventories | -1.1,-4.7 | -1.3,-3.6 | USD / 14.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8520
R 2: 0.8097
R 1: 0.7738
CURRENT: 0.7690
S 1: 0.7508
S 2: 0.7460
S 3: 0.7337
EURJPY
R 3: 137.40
R 2: 135.57
R 1: 134.80
CURRENT: 132.03
S 1: 130.72
S 2: 129.87
S 3: 128.90
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4800
R 2: 1.4745
R 1: 1.4972
CURRENT: 1.4587
S 1: 1.4500
S 2: 1.4446
S 3: 1.4270
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Market Brief |
The Usd was weaker in the Asian session, as an article in the Financial Times weight on the greenback. The EurUsd traded to 1.3720 from 1..3606,vwhile the UsdJpy traded down to 95.80 from 96.60. The Sterling has been supported by stronger than expect data, breaking decent topside levels at 1.5315. The FT report has an opinion piece by David Walker, the former comptroller general of the US , arguing that the US needs actively respond to steer clear of a downgrade in its AAA rating. It’s important to mention that the US is a global benchmark and would lead to other sovereign downgrades. Wall Street closed slightly lower, but Asian regional indexes closed higher and European are currently in the positive.
Expectations for higher inflation pushed gold into a new range, trading well above the 50 day moving average of $908oz. Oil surged to $59bbl, providing the perfect opportunity for Traders looking to benefit from hedgers going long to thwart price pressure on other asset classes. The US and most of Europe are in a extremely low interest rate environment, setting the stage for rapid inflation if the demand for higher yielding assets becomes a longer-term trend.. Gold has been fairly volatile over the last several sessions with a 5 day low of $895oz , versus the current price of $925oz. This wide range is atypical for the precious metal and should act as a sign of caution for investors speculating in gold. If the market continues to move towards a recovery phase, inflation concerns will rise bolstering gold even higher.
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US Session: Dollar Retreats on Shift in Global Risk Sentiment Investors Repositioning For Recovery
May 13, 2009 1:16 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Cad | 0.15 | | | | Aud | 0.13 | | | | Nok | 0.01 | | | | Jpy | 0.01 | | | Chf | -0.02 | | | Eur | -0.02 | | | Dkk | -0.03 | | | Gbp | -0.07 | | | Sek | -0.08 | | | Nzd | -0.08 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 8,469.11 | + 0.60 | | S&P 500 Index | 908.35 | - 0.10 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,715.92 | - 0.89 | | FTSE futures | 4,396.50 | - 0.10 | | DAX futures | 4,863.00 | - 0.12 | | CAC futures | 3,230.00 | - 0.09 | | SMI Futures | 5,341.00 | - 0.26 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 59.43 | + 0.99 | | Gold | 924.67 | + 0.14 | | Silver | 14.27 | + 0.18 | | USD Index | 82.31 | - 0.63 | | VIX | 31.80 | - 3.26 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8520
R 2: 0.8097
R 1: 0.7739
CURRENT: 0.7661
S 1: 0.7460
S 2: 0.7337
S 3: 0.7233
EURJPY
R 3: 138.57
R 2: 137.40
R 1: 135.57
CURRENT: 133.54
S 1: 130.72
S 2: 129.87
S 3: 128.95
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4980
R 2: 1.4882
R 1: 1.4803
CURRENT: 1.4574
S 1: 1.4500
S 2: 1.4445
S 3: 1.4270
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Market Brief |
The risk aversion is losing relevance as concerns of a collapse in the financial sector or a shift from the current recession to a depression is subsiding. There are several key components needed to confirm an all out exit from the risk aversion trade that has dominated global markets over the last several months, but early signs are emerging. Dollar deleveraging has just begun, as the possibility for a serious correction will be seen when investors unwind treasury positions. Govt. securities have provided false support to the dollar, and the attractiveness of secure assets will diminish with growing risk appetite. The euro broke previous resistance of 1.37, but has since retreated to the mid range of 1.36. The Jpy also rallied against the Usd, gaining 100pips and settling near 96.50. This trend is likely to continue despite bouts of heightened volatility and spotty economic data. Commodities will be the first beneficiaries of a prolonged weakening in the dollar, and currencies like the Aud, Nzd, and Cad should all follow suit. Crude oil climbed higher to $59bbl, seeing $60bbl as a psychological resistance point. If the see a break in oil above $60bbl, it should continue to define a new range on the upside. Equities and bonds have a variation of other factors to work through before positive risk sentiment alters price action in these sectors.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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