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US Session: DOLLAR STRENGH PUMMELS THE MAJORS
February 05, 2009 12:12 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
 | Jpy | -0.01 | | | Gbp | -0.10 | | | Cad | -0.23 | | | Nok | -0.42 | | | Aud | -1.27 | | | Sek | -1.27 | | | Nzd | -1.51 | | | Chf | -1.51 | | | Dkk | -1.60 | | | Eur | -1.61 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 7,920.00 | - 0.83 | | S&P future | 830.50 | - 0.12 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,219.00 | + 0.93 | | FTSE futures | 4,141.50 | + 0.33 | | CAC futures | 3,017.50 | + 1.19 | | DAX futures | 4,444.00 | + 1.58 | | SMI Futures | 5,164.00 | + 0.19 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 40.33 | - 1.10 | | Gold | 906.41 | + 0.67 | | Silver | 12.56 | + 0.97 | | USD Index | 85.70 | + 0.77 | | VIX | 43.88 | + 1.90 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6844
R 2: 0.6732
R 1: 0.6546
CURRENT: 0.6437
S 1: 0.6249
S 2: 0.6077
S 3: 0.6011
EURJPY
R 3: 122.17
R 2: 119.56
R 1: 116.68
CURRENT: 115.33
S 1: 113.15
S 2: 112.52
S 3: 112.12
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5312
R 2: 1.5249
R 1: 1.5178
CURRENT: 1.5090
S 1: 1.5029
S 2: 1.4924
S 3: 1.4809
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Market Brief |
The dollar surged against the major currency pairs, and even the yen succumbed to the greenback. The EurUsd dropped the most among the G10, seeing a decline of 188pips to the mid range of 1.28. The UsdJpy was mostly flat nearly unchanged from its previous close of 89.44. The GbpUsd held ground at 1.4460, with limited activity ahead of the BoE interest rate meeting tomorrow. Equity markets managed to close higher in Europe, but sunk in the US based on disappointing corporate earnings. Bond yields were flat across the UST curve, but are likely to see movement tomorrow abroad depending on the outcome of the monetary policy meetings. Commodities were mixed but the precious metals and energy sectors experienced marginal losses, with the oil at $40bbl and gold at $905oz.
Eurozone retail sales were flat as expected, beating estimates of 0.2% decline (MoM). The annualized reading did take a hit coming in at 1.6%, and the prior reading was revised to any even lower level. The PMI and services components were within scope of expectations, but adversely affect the overall resolution to the crisis abroad due to the fact the ECB may use this data as leverage to hold rates. The Euro took a dip today, and is still overpriced in our opinion the true value is somewhere between 1.23‐1.26. The ECB is set to meet tomorrow regarding the refinancing rate, which is likely to be hold at 2.00%. The UK consumer confidence dropped to 40 vs. the consensus figure of 45, but PMI actually improved to 42.5 breaking the string of severely weak economic data in the region. Look for a 50bps cut in the BoE meeting tomorrow, most of which is priced in leaving the Sterling in a position to react to the ECB action or follow in line with the risk aversion trade.
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Asian Session – Positive Sentiment Creates Pressure on USD
February 04, 2009 10:57 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | GBP | 0.64 |  | | | SEK | 0.44 | | | | JPY | 0.13 | | | | NOK | 0.13 | | | | EUR | 0.10 | | | | DKK | 0.07 | | | | CAD | 0.06 | | | NZD | -0.16 | | | AUD | -0.23 | | | CHF | -0.37 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,038.94 | + 2.72 | | Hang Seng Index | 13,063.89 | + 2.24 | | Shanghai Index | 2,107.75 | + 2.27 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,171.13 | + 0.16 | | SMI Index | 5,196.06 | - 0.40 | | DAX Index | 4,385.86 | + 0.24 | | DJIA futures | 7,999.00 | + 0.16 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 898.12 | - 0.15 | | Silver | 12.38 | - 0.48 | | VIX | 43.06 | - 5.04 | | Crude wti | 40.82 | + 0.09 | | USD Index | 85.43 | + 0.44 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| BoE MPC policy meeting starts (to Feb 5) | -- | -- | UK / -- | | PMI services, index | 40.2 | 40.0 | UK / 9.28 | | Retail sales, % m/m | -0.3,-1.5Y | -1.0,-2.3Y | EZ / 10.00 | | Norway: Norges bank interest rate announcement, % | 2.50% | 3.00% | NO / 13.00 | | ADP private employment change, thous | -515 | -476 | US / 13.15 | | ISM non-mfg composite, index | 39.0 | 37.4 | US / 15.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6844
R 2: 0.6732
R 1: 0.6546
CURRENT: 0.6437
S 1: 0.6249
S 2: 0.6077
S 3: 0.6011
EURJPY
R 3: 122.17
R 2: 119.56
R 1: 116.68
CURRENT: 115.33
S 1: 113.15
S 2: 112.52
S 3: 112.12
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5312
R 2: 1.5249
R 1: 1.5178
CURRENT: 1.5090
S 1: 1.5029
S 2: 1.4924
S 3: 1.4809
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Market Brief |
The Usd was weaker in the Asian session for the second day in a row US data release surprised to the upside and supported risk taking. The EurUsd traded between 1.2949 and 1.3070, while the UsdJyp fell sharply from 89.69 to 88.83. Risk sentiment was supported by a plethora of positive news: stimulus packages were announced in Australia and Sweden, the BoJ indicated its intent to buy stocks held by Japanese banks, US pending home sales figures for December rose by 6.3% and Fed's announced that five emergency lending programs are to be extended by 6 months. These events helped US equity markets to close in positive sentiemnt and were carried over into today. USD activity overnight were related to buzz arround a proposed bill allowing US corporates a major tax discount on repatriated earnings from abroad.
In Australia, seasonally adjusted retail sales jumped by a whopping 3.8% in December. The data includes the one-off $8.4bn fiscal stimulus package but highlights the fact that consumers felt confidence to spend rather than save.
We are in line with the near-unanimous consensus in forecasting the Norges Bank to lower rates 50bp, to 2.5%, (followings Dec 175bp cut) .Given the deterioration in the global economic outlook there is increased probability of a larger cut.
Today brings service sector PMI data, Eurozone retail sales, US mortgage applications and the ADP employment report. We expect the weak data to hinder growing optimism and support Usd buying. The US labour market has been sheding jobs at a unprecedented pace, bringing a downside risk to the consensus expectation in todays ADP report.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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