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US Session: Yen Devaluation Deepens While High-Yielders Rally
February 26, 2009 8:42 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | AUd | 0.95 |  | | | Gbp | 0.89 | | | | Cad | 0.85 | | | | Chf | 0.56 | | | | Eur | 0.34 | | | | Dkk | 0.32 | | | | Nzd | 0.26 | | | | Sek | 0.00 | |  | Nok | -0.44 | | | Jpy | -0.96 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 7,290.00 | + 0.86 | | S&P 500 Index | 766.50 | + 0.53 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,149.00 | - 0.43 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 7,470.00 | + 0.54 | | Hang Seng Futures | 12,862.00 | - 0.60 | | FTSE 100 Index | 3,854.50 | + 0.46 | | SMI Futures | 4,706.00 | + 1.27 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 45.03 | + 5.95 | | Gold | 941.05 | - 1.34 | | Silver | 13.05 | - 4.81 | | USD Index | 87.62 | - 0.33 | | VIX | 43.67 | - 2.24 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6643
R 2: 0.6554
R 1: 0.6522
CURRENT: 0.6504
S 1: 0.6456
S 2: 0.6417
S 3: 0.6388
EURJPY
R 3: 129.72
R 2: 126.12
R 1: 125.15
CURRENT: 125.00
S 1: 124.12
S 2: 123.13
S 3: 119.41
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5500
R 2: 1.5407
R 1: 1.5365
CURRENT: 1.5315
S 1: 1.5314
S 2: 1.5243
S 3: 1.5201
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Market Brief |
The dollar was unable to carry yesterday’s gains into the current session, with the Aud being the largest gainer. The EurUsd picked 24pips to the mid range of 1.27, while the UsdJpy surges 129pips to high 98 level. The GbpUsd rallied over 120pips to the low 1.43 price area moving very consistently with risk aversion. Equity markets rose in the US and Europe with the Dow up less than 1% or 23pts, while the DAX added a solid 2.5% or 96pts. Bond yields increased the UST curve, but even more interesting was the jump in 10yr rates throughout Europe. UK bonds gained 18bps, French, German, and Italian securities all added 10+bps to their current interest rate levels. Commodities were mixed with oil up 4.4% to $44bbl, and gold down 1.3% to $941oz.
Speculation builds around the ECB’s approach to monetary policy, with the refinance rate at 2% well above its counterparts in the US, Japan, and the UK. Several key components to focus on is the rising unemployment situation in Germany serving as evidence that it will be difficult for them to subsidize a bailout for its Eastern European neighbors. The rapidly deteriorating economies within the Eurozone, and those surrounding the region are adding substantial pressure to the currency. The lack of clarity within the marketplace has left will have an adverse effect on the performance of the Euro. In the UK, the BoE expressed concerns regarding the money supply and how to prevent a rapid rise in inflation when the markets do recover. UK financial institutions are utilizing a new asset protection program created by the govt. totaling about 325bln GBP. These actions should ease the possibility of future risks, it is important to note that BoE MPC member Blanchflower expects the UK recession to deepen and unexpected occurrences cannot be completely ruled out.
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Asian Session – Market sentiment continues to seesaw.
February 26, 2009 10:45 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | SEK | 0.39 | | | | CAD | 0.17 | | | | NOK | 0.06 | | | | AUD | 0.02 | | | | GBP | 0.01 | | | NZD | -0.04 | | | EUR | -0.08 | | | DKK | -0.09 | | | CHF | -0.13 | | | JPY | -0.65 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 7457 | - 0.04 | | Hang Seng Index | 12894 | - 0.84 | | Shanghai Index | 2121 | - 3.86 | | FTSE 100 Index | 3923 | + 1.93 | | DAX Index | 3905 | + 1.54 | | DJIA futures | 7288 | + 0.83 | | Nasdaq futures | 1165 | + 0.95 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 955.48 | + 0.18 | | Silver | 13.73 | + 0.17 | | VIX | 44.67 | - 1.80 | | Crude wti | 42.87 | + 0.87 | | USD Index | 87.8 | - 0.11 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Euro-zone Economic confidence (FEB) | 68.5 | 67.1 | EUR / 10:00 | | Euro-zone Consumer confidence | -31 | -31 | EUR / 10:00 | | Euro-zone business climate indic | -34 | -34 | EUR / 10:00 | | US Durable goods orders (JAN) | -2.5% | -3.0% | USD / 13:30 | | US Durables Ex Transportation (JAN) | -2.2% | -3.9% | USD / 13:30 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6643
R 2: 0.6554
R 1: 0.6522
CURRENT: 0.6504
S 1: 0.6456
S 2: 0.6417
S 3: 0.6388
EURJPY
R 3: 129.72
R 2: 126.12
R 1: 125.15
CURRENT: 125.00
S 1: 124.12
S 2: 123.13
S 3: 119.41
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5500
R 2: 1.5407
R 1: 1.5365
CURRENT: 1.5315
S 1: 1.5314
S 2: 1.5243
S 3: 1.5201
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Market Brief |
Asian indices were broadly lower today with the exception of the ASX which posted modest gains on the back of strong Capex numbers (+6%) and a revision of the Q4 GDP figures from +0.2% to +0.5%. The central themes to currency price action today focuses on the continued heightened demand for the Greenback, the Yen’s uncanny decline while the Aussie and the NZD defy gravity. News that the UK Government has established an asset protection scheme and the U.S Bank stress testing has been met with enthusiasm across the board.
While the EURUSD broke it’s week long downward channel last Friday it seems the dollar has regained strength against the Euro as the focus shifts back to the Old continent for concerted action. Dollar demand remains strong and a break below 1.2700 would refocus the 1.2516 support (18 Feb low).
USDJPY trades higher as the Japanese economy weakens further. The pair tests 98.00 at the time of writing and seems set for 3 digits. This said, a substantial retracement shouldn’t be overlooked. Bullish trend bringing the pair from 89.70 to 98.00 has run largely unabated since the 11th of Feb, if we test current level several times we could refocus 96.00.
Price movement in gold was positive at the early part of the trading session, experienced a reversal once it reached a high of $978oz. Much of this move was not due to ETF selling, but some technical pullbacks after stops were hit triggering further downside. The combination of marginally positive equity market performance, light ETF flows, led to a freefall in gold prices.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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