|
|
European Session: Majors In Line With Risk Sentiment Euro Stirs Worries Among FX Traders
February 18, 2009 7:02 PM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Sek | 1.06 |  | | | Cad | 0.48 | | | | Nzd | 0.21 | | | | Aud | 0.16 | |  | Nok | -0.07 | | | Dkk | -0.19 | | | Gbp | -0.19 | | | Eur | -0.20 | | | Chf | -0.69 | | | Jpy | -1.34 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| DJIA Index | 7,546.39 | - 0.08 | | S&P 500 Index | 787.85 | - 0.17 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,469.06 | - 0.11 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 3,941.00 | - 1.49 | | Hang Seng Futures | 7,570.00 | - 0.13 | | Shanghai Futures | 12,959.00 | + 0.54 | | SMI Futures | 3,354.00 | - 0.68 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Crude wti | 35.08 | + 0.43 | | Gold | 967.41 | - 0.29 | | Silver | 14.21 | + 0.57 | | USD Index | 88.00 | + 0.47 | | VIX | 49.56 | + 1.85 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6798
R 2: 0.6643
R 1: 0.6567
CURRENT: 0.6416
S 1: 0.6249
S 2: 0.6077
S 3: 0.6009
EURJPY
R 3: 120.01
R 2: 118.80
R 1: 117.76
CURRENT: 116.64
S 1: 114.90
S 2: 114.22
S 3: 113.15
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5458
R 2: 1.5339
R 1: 1.5323
CURRENT: 1.5278
S 1: 1.5130
S 2: 1.5036
S 3: 1.4930
|
|
Market Brief |
The dollar slipped against the majors based on a shift in risk appetite, after yesterday’s steep losses within the market place. The EurUsd declined 50pips to the low range of 1.25, while the UsdJpy rallied strong on a series of events hindering the Yen’s status as a safe-haven currency. The GbpUsd gave up roughly 40pips to the downside, finding support around 1.42. Equity markets opened lower in the US and are negative in Europe. The FTSE is down 1.4% or 57pts, while the Dow is marginally lower by less than 1% or 18pts. Bond yields increased at the short end of the UST curve, but were mixed across the pond. We think there is still some degree of liquidity in the 10yr, and have been using trends on the interest rate side as a indicator to bias in risk appetite.
The Eurozone has been hit with additional negative data in the construction sector, output was released at -2.2% vs. the previous reading of -1.1%. German ZEW ticked higher, but the short-term euphoria is unlikely to hold any longevity as economic growth continues to suffer. Credit concerns in Eastern Europe have taken the forefront of factors driving the Eurodollar. Polish and Hungarian officials are exploring a wide range of options to stabilize the recent price movement of their respective currencies. In the UK, BoE minutes showed an 8-1 vote to cut rates by 50bps, the one dissenter was Blanchflower favored a 100bps cut. The central bank is in the process of formulating an asset purchase program to buy commercial paper and corporate bonds generating liquidity. The Sterling has fallen out of the spotlight, as Traders refocus their attention on rising risk in the Eurozone.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMNY makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
|
|
Asian Session – Risk Aversion on the Rise
February 18, 2009 9:12 AM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 0.77 | | | | SEK | 0.71 | | | | AUD | 0.70 | | | | NOK | 0.58 | | | | CHF | 0.52 | | | | GBP | 0.46 | | | | DKK | 0.33 | | | | EUR | 0.32 | | | | CAD | 0.18 | | | JPY | -0.15 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 7,534.44 | - 1.45 | | Hang Seng Index | 12,941.85 | - 0.02 | | Shanghai Index | 2,209.86 | - 4.72 | | FTSE futures | 4,002.00 | - 2.47 | | DAX futures | 4,225.00 | - 0.26 | | SMI Futures | 4,873.00 | + 0.08 | | DJIA futures | 7,567.00 | + 0.79 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 972.20 | + 0.20 | | Silver | 14.27 | + 0.99 | | VIX | 48.66 | + 13.34 | | Crude wti | 34.49 | - 1.26 | | USD Index | 87.50 | - 0.09 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| BoJ monetary policy meeting starts (to 19 Feb) | -- | -- | JPY | | BoE MPC minutes, vote Feb | 8-0-1 | 9-0 | UK / 9.30 | | Construction output, % m/m (y/y wda) Dec | -- | -1.1 (-4.7 | EZ / 10.00 | | CBI industrial trends, total orders net balance Fe | -45 | -48 | UK / 11.00 | | Import prices, % m/m Jan | -1.5,-11.9 | -4.2,-9.3Y | US / 13.30 | | Building permits, mn units saar Jan | 0.528 | 0.547 | US / 13.30 | | Housing starts, mn units saar Jan | 0.530 | 0.550 | US / 13.30 | | Industrial production, % m/m Jan | -1.4,-9.3Y | -2.0,-7.8Y | US / 14.15 | | Capacity utilisation, % Jan | 72.5 | 73.6 | US / 14.15 | | Minutes of 27-28 January FOMC meeting published | -- | -- | US / 19.00 | | Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks at a National Press C | -- | -- | US / 17.30 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6798
R 2: 0.6643
R 1: 0.6567
CURRENT: 0.6416
S 1: 0.6249
S 2: 0.6077
S 3: 0.6009
EURJPY
R 3: 120.01
R 2: 118.80
R 1: 117.76
CURRENT: 116.64
S 1: 114.90
S 2: 114.22
S 3: 113.15
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5458
R 2: 1.5339
R 1: 1.5323
CURRENT: 1.5278
S 1: 1.5130
S 2: 1.5036
S 3: 1.4930
|
|
Market Brief |
The Usd was firm in the Asian session, despite yesterday’s strong bout of risk aversion. Markets saw heavy USD, Gold and Treasury buying and equity selling. The EurUsd was perhaps the biggest loser in the FX market dropping from 1.2810 to 1.2563 day lows. The main cause of the negative sentiment was the markets renewed focus on European credit rating (due to Moody's warning of ratings reviews) on corporate side in European banks and sovereign side, specifically Ireland. However, some relief was supplied today as a few European banks posted higher than expected profits, providing a short reprieve in Euro selling. President Obama will be launching his initiative to halt bank foreclosures, but due to the markets fatigue we don’t expect a significant decrease in risk aversion.
In Australia, December’s retail sales rose by 0.8% q/q, but below market expectations of +1.0%q/q. Weakness was skewed to discretionary spending, with large drops in cafes and restaurants spending,-1.5%q/q, -7.4%y/y.
In the European session, the market will be focused on the BoE MPC minutes release and UK CBI Industrial Trends Survey. The minutes are likely to show that all members wanted to cut rates by at least 50bp. What will be interesting will be any revolution on why the members voted for only 50bp cut when the Inflation Report clear stated deeper cuts were needed. Due to the recent drops in manufacturing, the more timely CBI survey will capture the markets attention and deserve very close examination.
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|