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US Session: The Bailout Battle Rages on in US Lesgislature Pressuring Risk Appetite
February 13, 2009 11:56 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Gbp | 0.95 |  | | | Jpy | 0.66 | | | | Sek | 0.25 | | | | Dkk | 0.17 | | | | Chf | 0.04 | |  | Eur | -0.016 | | | Nok | -0.27 | | | Cad | -0.43 | | | Aud | -0.75 | | | Nzd | -0.85 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 7,900.00 | - 0.47 | | S&P future | 832.00 | - 0.41 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,239.00 | - 0.50 | | FTSE futures | 4,171.00 | - 0.06 | | CAC futures | 3,007.00 | + 1.42 | | DAX futures | 4,431.50 | + 0.32 | | DJIA Index | 5,051.00 | + 0.22 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 34.70 | + 2.12 | | Gold | 937.85 | - 0.94 | | Silver | 13.37 | - 1.17 | | USD Index | 86.10 | - 0.53 | | VIX | 41.65 | + 0.97 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6849
R 2: 0.6798
R 1: 0.6617
CURRENT: 0.6625
S 1: 0.6432
S 2: 0.6354
S 3: 0.6249
EURJPY
R 3: 125.28
R 2: 122.17
R 1: 120.01
CURRENT: 117.93
S 1: 114.22
S 2: 113.15
S 3: 112.53
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5339
R 2: 1.5258
R 1: 1.5178
CURRENT: 1.5065
S 1: 1.5036
S 2: 1.4935
S 3: 1.4908
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Market Brief |
The dollar regained momentum on waning risk appetite, and uncertainty regarding the outcome bailout
bill. The EurUsd settled mostly flat in today’s session at 1.2862, while the Usdjpy gained 100pips to
seeing resistance at 92. The GbpUsd gained 85pips to the mid range of 1.43 after a volatile week in the
marketplace. Equities were mixed in the US and Europe with the Dow lower by 1% or 82pts and the CAC
higher by 1% or 33pts. Bond yields were mixed as well with the 2yr higher by 2bps at .96% and the 10yr
unchanged at 2.8%. Commodities saw a rise in the energy sector with oil at $37bbl up 10% and gold
slightly lower by .53% at $941oz.
During the European session, the Eurozone GDP contracted 1.5% QoQ vs. 1.3% exp, the biggest fall in 13
years. Meanwhile, German GDP declined 2.1% QoQ vs 1.8% exp, and this is the largest drop since the
reunification of the country. These sour figures reminded the market that the Eurozone still faces a very
difficult economic challenge. We expect that risk sentiment will remain a main driver of all markets and
the EurUsd will persist in a broad downtrend in the long term. In the US, the House and the Senate
continue to work over final details on the reduced $789B compromised economic stimulus plan. The G7
meeting starts in Rome today would be closely watched. No major data releases scheduled today.
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contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be
aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing.
The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMNY makes a strong
effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or
complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material
change.
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Asian Session – AU Stimulus Passes on 2nd Try
February 13, 2009 4:43 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | AUD | 1.85 | | | | GBP | 1.59 | | | | CAD | 1.17 | | | | NZD | 1.16 | | | | NOK | 1.10 | | | | SEK | 1.02 | | | | DKK | 0.80 | | | | EUR | 0.81 | | | | CHF | 0.44 | | | JPY | -0.82 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 7,779.40 | + 0.96 | | Hang Seng Index | 13,544.73 | + 2.39 | | Shanghai Index | 2,320.79 | + 3.23 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,251.36 | + 1.16 | | DAX Index | 4,463.00 | + 1.61 | | SMI Index | 5,165.32 | + 1.13 | | DJIA futures | 7,925.00 | - 0.15 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 937.63 | - 0.96 | | Silver | 13.42 | - 0.80 | | VIX | 41.25 | - 7.36 | | Crude wti | 34.61 | + 1.85 | | USD Index | 85.86 | - 0.82 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| E16: "Flash" GDP, % q/q Q4 | -1.3 | -0.2,0.6y | EZ / 10.00 | | ECB Executive Board member Gonzalez-Parámo speaks | -- | -- | EZ / 11.00 | | Michigan consumer sentiment, index Feb-P | 61.5 | 61.2 | US / 15.00 | | G7 meeting of Finance Ministers and CB govs | -- | -- | Global |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6849
R 2: 0.6798
R 1: 0.6617
CURRENT: 0.6625
S 1: 0.6432
S 2: 0.6354
S 3: 0.6249
EURJPY
R 3: 125.28
R 2: 122.17
R 1: 120.01
CURRENT: 117.93
S 1: 114.22
S 2: 113.15
S 3: 112.53
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5339
R 2: 1.5258
R 1: 1.5178
CURRENT: 1.5065
S 1: 1.5036
S 2: 1.4935
S 3: 1.4908
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Market Brief |
Markets are still buzzing around two surprise figures from the Eurozone & US released yesterday. The Eurozone industrial production figures were simply shocking. Production fell by -2.6% in December, after deteriorating by a downwardly revised -2.2% in November. This decline in industrial production now placed the annualized figure at -12.0% y/y. (cons -8.9% exp.). In addition, with the rapid deterioration in growth and business activity globally, a near term recovery would be a fantasy. Confronted with these dire figures, ECB board members have become increasingly dovish in their rhetoric. US retail sales saw a 1.0% m/m rise and were perhaps the first tentative sign the domestic economy has reached it bottom. However, with weakening labour market, lending being tightened and real household wealth declining, the consumer sector currently doesn't have the muscle to drive a recovery.
In Australia, NAB Business Survey, Q4 Business conditions declined to -16, their lowest level since 1992. Business confidence dropped a whopping 24 pts to -31, a record low. Also, unemployment rate surprised to the upside printing at 4.8% vs. 4.7% exp. Australia's A$42 bn stimulus package, which was rejected yesterday, was passed by the Senate today, after a slight modification. In New Zealand, House sales dropped sharply in January to -8.7% m/m which partly negated December's positive reading 25.9% m/m.
The build-up to to this weekends G7 Finance Ministers and CB Governors meeting should keep FX volatility high as comments by policy makers hit the newswires. We expect this meeting have lots of hype but little impact.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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