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US Session: Dollar Strength Prevails on Another Wave of Risk Aversion.
February 12, 2009 9:03 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
 | Jpy | -0.10 | | | Chf | -0.62 | | | Eur | -0.62 | | | Dkk | -0.63 | | | Sek | -0.99 | | | Cad | -1.05 | | | Gbp | -1.20 | | | Aud | -1.25 | | | Nzd | -1.25 | | | Nok | -1.61 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 7,770.00 | - 1.60 | | S&P future | 816.50 | - 1.80 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,225.00 | + 0.04 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,179.00 | - 0.73 | | CAC futures | 2,965.50 | - 2.08 | | DAX futures | 4,417.50 | - 2.66 | | SMI Futures | 5,040.00 | - 0.20 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 34.73 | - 3.37 | | Gold | 946.85 | + 0.84 | | Silver | 13.50 | - 0.22 | | USD Index | 86.25 | + 0.56 | | VIX | 45.22 | + 1.55 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6849
R 2: 0.6622
R 1: 0.6569
CURRENT: 0.6491
S 1: 0.6482
S 2: 0.6360
S 3: 0.6250
EURJPY
R 3: 117.24
R 2: 116.78
R 1: 115.96
CURRENT: 115.52
S 1: 114.47
S 2: 113.23
S 3: 113.00
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5182
R 2: 1.5161
R 1: 1.5113
CURRENT: 1.5099
S 1: 1.5077
S 2: 1.5037
S 3: 1.4972
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Market Brief |
The dollar dominated the FX market posting gains across the G10 this trend is consistent with the pattern of risk aversion in the marketplace. The EurUsd declined 100pips finding support at 1.28, while the UsdJpy was marginally higher at the mid range of 90. The Sterling collapsed nearly 200pips to the low range of 1.42, on rumors their sovereign credit rating is at risk again. Equity markets are negative in the US and Europe, with the Dow off 2.8% or 221pts. Bond yields are tighter across the curve, particularly at the 10yr portion with rates down 7bps to 2.7%. Commodities were mixed with oil down to $33bbl and gold surging by 1.2% to $950oz.
During the European session, Eurozone Industrial Production declined -2.6% vs. -2.3% exp, this is the largest drop. The region’s industrial sector continues to face a very difficult economic climate due to the falling global demand and relatively tight credit condition. Australian unemployment rate jumped to a worse than expected 4.8%, and the Parliament voted down the $28B economic stimulus package.
In the US, January Advance Retail Sales increased 1.0% vs. -0.8% exp. breaking a 6-month slide due to the higher gasoline prices and more spending on clothing and food. Business Inventories fell a more than forecast -1.3% vs. -0.9% exp. in December as companies sought to dump their unsold goods. Meanwhile, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims came out 623K vs. 610K exp. which rose for a fourth straight week as companies accelerated cutting jobs. The total number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits hit 4.81 million. Considering the continued massive job losses, we think the gain of retail sales is unsubstantial. On the policy side, The House and the Senate agreed on a reduced $789B compromised stimulus plan with a vote possible within days. The G7 meeting this weekend in Rome would also be closely watched.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMNY makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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Asian Session: Stimulus, rescue plans fail to stimulate or rescue…
February 12, 2009 3:16 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NOK | 3.02 |  | | | NZD | 2.48 | | | | SEK | 2.27 | | | | AUD | 1.73 | | | | DKK | 1.36 | | | | EUR | 1.34 | | | | CHF | 0.898 | | | | CAD | 0.684 | | | | GBP | 0.517 | | | JPY | -1.10 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 8023.3 | - 4.92 | | Hang Seng Index | 13242 | - 3.37 | | Shanghai Index | 1920.2 | - 0.45 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4142.5 | + 0.27 | | DAX Index | 4435 | - 0.30 | | Nasdaq futures | 1143.5 | - 1.88 | | DJIA futures | 8140 | - 0.23 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 938.91 | - 0.05 | | Silver | 13.37 | - 1.27 | | VIX | 49.14 | + 13.56 | | Crude wti | 37.68 | + 1.07 | | USD Index | 84.33 | - 0.11 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| EUR - Industrial Production (MoM) | -2.5% | -1.6% | EUR / 10:00 | | USD - Initial Jobless Claims (JAN) | -0.8% | -2.7% | USD / 13:30 | | NZD - Retail Sales | -0.7% | 0.0% | NZD / 21:45 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6849
R 2: 0.6622
R 1: 0.6569
CURRENT: 0.6491
S 1: 0.6482
S 2: 0.6360
S 3: 0.6250
EURJPY
R 3: 117.24
R 2: 116.78
R 1: 115.96
CURRENT: 115.52
S 1: 114.47
S 2: 113.23
S 3: 113.00
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5182
R 2: 1.5161
R 1: 1.5113
CURRENT: 1.5099
S 1: 1.5077
S 2: 1.5037
S 3: 1.4972
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Market Brief |
Asian markets continued to dwindle as the U.S Stimulus package failed to impress anyone. This was further exacerbated by the lack of response by the U.S government to this generalized pessimism. The Nikkei dropped by a frightening -4.92% this morning, while the Hang Seng fell by -3.3%. The ASX plunged by -4.2% after a $28Bn economic stimulus package was rejected by lawmakers. The AUDUSD traded amidst heightened volatility as a result – seeing the Aussie decline sharply to 0.6480 territory, however it seems a lot of this was already priced in.
The EURUSD is seen converging around a 1.2900 handle, however further news impetus will continue to weigh on the pair – 1.2707 seen as short-term target, passing by 1.2847 as key currency level. The USDJPY see’s Japan’s haven currency appreciate – much to the disdain of the home economy – largely supported by exports.
In the news today, Spain announces it is officially in recession as its GDP declines by 1.00%. US Initial Jobless claims are expected at 13:30 GMT – expected to come out lower than the previous -626K at -610K.
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US Session: Market Struggle to Digest New Rescue Plan
February 12, 2009 12:05 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Jpy | 0.06 | | | Nzd | -0.06 | | | Dkk | -0.12 | | | Chf | -0.12 | | | Eur | -0.14 | | | Gbp | -0.14 | | | Cad | -0.22 | | | Nok | -0.23 | | | Aud | -0.29 | | | Sek | -0.37 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 7,912.00 | + 0.20 | | S&P future | 832.70 | + 0.14 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,225.25 | + 0.06 | | FTSE futures | 4,209.50 | - 0.14 | | CAC futures | 3,028.50 | + 0.38 | | DAX futures | 4,538.00 | - 0.26 | | SMI Futures | 5,050.00 | - 0.69 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 35.94 | - 4.29 | | Gold | 938.88 | - 0.01 | | Silver | 13.53 | + 0.01 | | USD Index | 85.78 | - 0.04 | | VIX | 44.53 | - 4.59 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7003
R 2: 0.6849
R 1: 0.6799
CURRENT: 0.6533
S 1: 0.6476
S 2: 0.6355
S 3: 0.6249
EURJPY
R 3: 122.17
R 2: 121.57
R 1: 120.01
CURRENT: 116.51
S 1: 115.71
S 2: 114.22
S 3: 113.15
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5338
R 2: 1.5258
R 1: 1.5178
CURRENT: 1.5056
S 1: 1.4935
S 2: 1.4904
S 3: 1.4805
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Market Brief |
The Usd surged in the early part of the session, but lost steam as risk appetite crawled higher. The EurUsd slipped 30pips falling below previous support of 1.29, while the UsdJpy was marginally lower down only 7pips to the mid range of 90. The GbpUsd dropped over 170pips correcting to the downside as more investors express their dismal outlook for the UK economy. Equity markets were volatile toggling back and forth in the negative and positive range in the US and Europe. The Dow was able to close higher adding 50pts a little less than 1%, but the index remains below 8000. Bond Yields were mixed with 2yr slightly higher at .91% and the 10yr a bit lower at 2.75%, bonds are clearly overbought and an unwind is inevitable before we see a true return to risk. Commodities were mixed with oil at $35bbl, and gold skyrocketing over 2% or $24 to $938oz.
Markets were range-bound as investors continue to digest the “Financial Stability Plan.” Investors are unable to give the plan an endorsement or disapproval due to the lack of specifics and this will increase the volatility across asset classes. The U.S. Trade Balance number came out to be -$39.9B vs. -41.6B previously in December, which pushed down the trade deficit to the lowest level since 2003. The vast improvement in trade coming from imports collapsing more than exports are collapsing. A shrinking trade deficit may eventually turn into a surplus as protectionism is the way the U.S. government is leaning right now. During the European session, investors remain focused on ECB commentary. Considering comments made by Axel Weber, we are hearing more ECB members become dovish regarding monetary policy. European Central Bank council member Guy Quaden said he’s absolutely ready to cut key rate below 2%.
In the U.K., the BoE predicted inflation will slow to 0.5% by the end of 2010 in its quarterly report. Governor Mervyn King said U.K. economy is in deep recession and further monetary policy easing may be required. King also added the BoE will buy gilts in an APF (Asset Purchase Facility). The Sterling sold off on the back of his comments regarding rates. The market was simply lacking confidence in terms of how effective those steps will be. In a surprise move, the Sweden’s Riksbank cut by 100 bps vs. 75 bps exp. to 2.00%. Our positive outlook remains for the SEK against the euro in the long term due to Sweden’s aggressive central bank, strong government fiscal measures and healthy fundamentals.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMNY makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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