|
|
JPY Weakens As Possibility Of Pakistan Coup Dismissed
December 18, 2009 5:01 PM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | CAD | 0.29 |  | | | CHF | 0.09 | |  | AUD | -0.01 | | | NOK | -0.06 | | | SEK | -0.09 | | | NZD | -0.39 | | | GBP | -0.43 | | | EUR | -0.45 | | | DKK | -0.47 | | | JPY | -0.99 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| FTSE 100 Index | 5'221.38 | + 0.07 | | DAX Index | 5'872.29 | + 0.48 | | SMI Index | 6'490.20 | + 0.01 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'097.67 | + 0.15 | | DJIA Index | 10'309.77 | + 0.01 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10'190.00 | + 0.39 | | Hang Seng Futures | 21'135.00 | - 0.97 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 1'098.88 | 0.00 | | Silver | 17.15 | + 0.09 | | VIX | 22.35 | - 0.71 | | Crude wti | 73.27 | + 0.85 | | USD Index | 77.99 | + 0.32 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| No further releases | --- | --- | --- |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.4600
R 1: 1.4480
CURRENT: 1.4275
S 1: 1.4180
S 2: 1.4000
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.6515
R 1: 1.6375
CURRENT: 1.6090
S 1. 1.6080
S 2: 1.5990
USDJPY
R 2: 91.30
R 1: 90.87
CURRENT: 90.80
S 1: 89.50
S 2. 88.55
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9070
R 1. 0.9010
CURRENT: 0.8870
S 1: 0.8760
S 2: 0.8645
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0780
R 1: 1.0750
CURRENT: 1.0675
S 1: 1.0610
S 2: 1.0555
|
|
Market Brief |
Since the drama of the Asian session and the rumours of a Pakistan coup that sent FX markets rushing to buy JPY in a spasm of risk aversion, the European session has been altogether less thrilling. The Pakistan headlines were quickly dismissed by officials, and thus began the USD’s gradual recovery back toward flat on the day. Indeed the rally in USDJPY back from its 88.97 lows has since surpassed yesterday’s highs to trade at 90.70, and given the ultra dovish rhetoric from BoJ officials since this morning’s rate meeting, there is plenty of scope for further gains for USDJPY going into 2010. Most other currencies have had a mixed day against the USD (DXY is only slightly higher on the day at 77.85, +0.15%), but trading has been somewhat choppy due to patchy liquidity – no doubt a consequence of the seasonal wind down into the Christmas break.
There were no US economic releases today, and the European session provided only a handful of second-tier data. German IFO surveys revealed that the business climate, current assessment and expectations components were all higher than expected, but the release did not have a significant impact on EURUSD. UK M4 money supply data was much lower than forecasts at 0.0% MoM, 9.2% YoY against expectations for 0.6% MoM, 10.0% YoY; a good indication that the massive injection of liquidity from the BoE is not likely to pose a significant inflationary threat in the near term.
As we head towards the European close, equities are mixed on the day, but patchy liquidity and good USD buying interest since the start of the US session looks to be pushing EURUSD and gold lower, and we expect the USD to remain supported into the close.
|
|
Asian Session: Pakistan Coup Denied but Scares Markets
December 18, 2009 10:56 AM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NOK | 0.65 | | | | CHF | 0.59 | | | | SEK | 0.43 | | | | JPY | 0.35 | | | | DKK | 0.31 | | | | EUR | 0.31 | | | | CAD | 0.29 | | | | NZD | 0.23 | | | | AUD | 0.18 | | | | GBP | 0.16 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 10,142.05 | - 0.21 | | Hang Seng Index | 21,173.38 | - 0.81 | | Shanghai Index | 3,113.89 | - 2.05 | | FTSE futures | 5,230.50 | - 1.62 | | DAX futures | 5,854.00 | + 0.33 | | SMI Futures | 6,512.00 | + 0.33 | | DJIA futures | 10,372.00 | + 0.33 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 1,106.49 | + 0.69 | | Silver | 17.25 | + 0.64 | | VIX | 22.51 | + 9.59 | | Crude wti | 72.95 | + 0.41 | | USD Index | 77.62 | - 0.14 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| German IFO business climate, index Dec | -- | 93.9 | EUR / 09.00 | | GE IFO current assessment, index Dec | -- | 89.1 | EUR / 09.00 | | GE IFO business expectations, index Dec | -- | 98.9 | EUR / 09.00 | | Current account, € bn (sa) Oct | -- | -5.4 | EUR / 09.00 | | Final business investment, % q/q (y/y) Q3 | -- | -3.0,-21.7 | GBP / 09.30 | | PSNB/PSNCR, £ bn Nov | -- | 11.4/5.9 | GBP / 09.30 | | Trade balance, € bn (sa) Oct | -- | 6.8 | EUR / 10.00 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9070
R 1. 0.9010
CURRENT: 0.8877
S 1: 0.8760
S 2: 0.8645
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0780
R 1: 1.0750
CURRENT: 1.0685
S 1: 1.0610
S 2: 1.0555
EURJPY
R 2: 131.60
R 1: 130.77
CURRENT: 129.09
S 1: 126.90
S 2: 126.65
USDMXN
R 2: 13.020
R 1: 12.995
CURRENT: 12.860
S 1: 12.710
S 2: 12.645
|
|
Market Brief |
FX markets were choppy in the Asian session, as the thin liquidity amplified small moves. Asian equities were slightly weaker, with Shanghai down -2.0% following yesterday’s drops across Europe and the US . Risk appetite was damaged as rumors of a Coup in Pakistan sent traders into scrambling USD. However, Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari’s spokesman denied rumors of a coup, after the defense minister Supreme Court this week threw out an amnesty protecting Defense Minister Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar and thousands of others from corruption charges. Perhaps the most interesting move was in the EURCHF, which traded down to 1.4908 for the fist time below 1.500 since March and just a few days after the ECB's last 12 month liquidity tenor. There has been increasing speculation that the SNB is relating its intervention stance and becoming comfortable with the prospect of a stronger CHF. We believe this is somewhat premature given the continued rhetoric by SNB officials (although slightly less hawkish) and EUR weakness. As was universally expected, the BoJ unanimously voted to hold rates at 0.10%. They also used the meeting to solidify their position on price stability as a critical objective of monetary policy. Previously, the definition stated a goal of "approximately between 0 and 2%" with a median figure of "around 1%". Now CPI "must be in a positive range of 2% or lower" with the language clearly conveying the BoJ intolerance for a deflation environment. Given the tools left, the BoJ would most likely increase their monthly purchases of JGBs which would have a negative JPY (and given recent weakness in JGB yields, the markets seem to have increased probability of this scenario).
In Australia, the November business sales grew vigorously +6.8% y/y, the strongest reading in 22-months. In New Zealand, the December consumer confidence index slipped -2.9 pts to 118.6, however still a decent read.The AUDUSD traded up to 0.8902, after finding support on its 100-day moving average at 0.8848. The economic data highlight of the day should be the German IFO, which is expected to have shown sentiment index improved to 94.5, vs. 93.9 prior, and expectations index rising to 99.0 vs. 98.9 prior.
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|