|
|
Markets Continue To Unwind Positions Into Year End
December 17, 2009 5:32 PM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
 | JPY | -0.46 | | | CAD | -0.80 | | | CHF | -0.86 | | | NZD | -1.17 | | | GBP | -1.21 | | | EUR | -1.28 | | | DKK | -1.29 | | | SEK | -1.33 | | | AUD | -1.45 | | | NOK | -1.79 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| FTSE 100 Index | 5'238.11 | - 1.54 | | DAX Index | 5'855.86 | - 0.81 | | SMI Index | 6'489.89 | - 0.65 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'102.58 | - 0.60 | | DJIA Index | 10'366.15 | - 0.72 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10'100.00 | - 0.79 | | Hang Seng Futures | 21'343.00 | - 1.35 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 1'114.10 | - 2.09 | | Silver | 17.34 | - 2.09 | | VIX | 21.46 | + 4.48 | | Crude wti | 71.94 | - 0.99 | | USD Index | 77.77 | + 1.12 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| Fri 18 Dec | --- | --- | --- | | BOJ Rate Announcement, % Dec | 0.10 | 0.10 | JPY/AM | | Germany: PPI, % m/m (y/y) Nov | 0.2 (-5.9) | 0.0 (-7.6) | EUR/07:00 | | Germany: IFO business climate, index Dec | 94.5 | 93.9 | EUR/09:00 | | Germany: IFO current assessment, index Dec | 90.0 | 89.1 | EUR/09:00 | | Germany: IFO business expectations, index Dec | 99.0 | 98.9 | EUR/09:00 | | Current account, € bn (sa) Oct | --- | -5.4 | EUR/09:00 | | PSNB/PSNCR, £ bn Nov | 23.0/17.3 | 11.4/5.9 | GBP/09:30 | | Trade balance, € bn (sa) Oct | 5.7 | 6.8 | EUR/10:00 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.4600
R 1: 1.4480
CURRENT: 1.4340
S 1: 1.4330
S 2: 1.4180
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.6515
R 1: 1.6375
CURRENT: 1.6140
S 1. 1.6080
S 2: 1.5990
USDJPY
R 2: 91.30
R 1: 90.75
CURRENT: 90.20
S 1: 89.50
S 2. 88.55
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9170
R 1: 0.9030
CURRENT: 0.8875
S 1: 0.8847
S 2: 0.8570
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0870
R 1: 1.0750
CURRENT: 1.0700
S 1: 1.0660
S 2: 1.0570
|
|
Market Brief |
The USD rally has continued throughout the European session; EURUSD’s slump through major technical support at 1.4480 in Asia has followed through today to lows of 1.4329; whilst gold and silver are down over 2% on the day at $1113 and $17.30 respectively. There has been very little headline news to add to yesterday’s FOMC statement; US claims data was slightly higher than forecasts but Leading Indicators for November beat estimates (0.9% vs. 0.7% expected), and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index was also better than expected at 20.4 (16.0 expected, 16.7 last). The economic releases are certainly not first tier data, but the current mood of the market seems to suggest an unwind of ‘risk assets’ in favour of buying back USDs, and investors have seized upon any excuses to do so.
The disappointing UK Retail Sales earlier in the day (-0.3% MoM vs. 0.5% expected) ensured GBPUSD also breached downside support at 1.6200 to touch 1.6080 lows; and from a technical standpoint, a close below 1.6150 today will open up the 1.6000 levels on the downside. Canadian CPI figures for November fared little better in supporting CAD; despite higher than expected readings at 0.5% MoM against forecasts for only at 0.3% rise, USDCAD went on to touch highs of 1.0747, but has however pared back a little since then to 1.0700.
Tomorrow will be a quiet day for US data, but we will get the latest rate announcement from the Bank of Japan. It has been less than a month since the last Japanese rate announcement, after the BoJ called an emergency policy meeting on 1st December, and rates are certain to be unchanged at 0.10%. Given the recent necessity for the government to unveil another massive package of stimulus, it is highly unlikely that the statement or subsequent press conferences will contain much upbeat analysis on the economy. Although USDJPY has climbed back above 90.00 levels thus easing immediate pressure from JPY strength, we remain vigilant of comments that the central bank is still primed to engage in active intervention to evoke further currency depreciation.
|
|
Dollar Powers Higher On Fed’s Assessment Of Employment
December 17, 2009 9:44 AM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.04 |  | | CAD | -0.52 | | | CHF | -0.68 | | | SEK | -0.70 | | | GBP | -0.71 | | | EUR | -0.82 | | | DKK | -0.82 | | | NOK | -0.92 | | | NZD | -1.00 | | | AUD | -1.03 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 10'163.80 | - 0.13 | | Hang Seng Index | 21'347.63 | - 1.22 | | Shanghai Index | 3'179.08 | - 2.34 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5'289.87 | - 0.57 | | DAX Index | 5'872.72 | - 0.52 | | SMI Index | 6'513.04 | - 0.30 | | S&P future | 1'110.40 | + 0.15 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 1'130.69 | - 0.63 | | Silver | 17.55 | - 0.90 | | VIX | 20.54 | - 4.42 | | Crude wti | 72.32 | - 0.47 | | USD Index | 77.39 | + 0.63 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| Unemployment rate, % Dec | 8.2 | 8.1 | SEK/08:30 | | Unemployment rate, % Dec | 2.6 | 2.7 | NOK/09:00 | | Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Nov | 0.5 (3.7) | 0.4 (3.4) | GBP/09:30 | | Construction output, % m/m (y/y wda) Oct | --- (-1.1) | ---(-8.0) | EUR/10:00 | | CPI, % m/m (y/y) Nov | 0.3 (0.8) | -0.1 (0.1) | CAD/12:00 | | Philadelphia Fed mfg index Dec | 16.0 | 16.7 | USD/15:00 | | Leading indicators, % m/m Nov | 0.7 | 0.3 | USD/15:00 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9170
R 1: 0.9030
CURRENT: 0.89.10
S 1: 0.8873
S 2: 0.8570
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0750
R 1: 1.0700
CURRENT: 1.0675
S 1: 1.0555
S 2: 1.0480
EURJPY
R 2: 131.60
R 1: 130.75
CURRNET: 129.15
S 1: 128.80
S 2: 126.90
USDMXN
R 2: 12.955
R 1: 12.820
CURRENT: 12.740
S 1: 12.645
S 2: 12.590
|
|
Market Brief |
The USD has extended gains today after yesterday’s FOMC meeting highlighted a more optimistic assessment of the US labour market. As expected, there was no change to the Fed Funds rate and the accompanying statement retained the crucial remarks that rates would stay at their “exceptionally low” levels for an ”extended period”; however the alteration to last month’s wording that was interpreted as a strong USD-positive was the claim that the decline in the labour market was “abating”. The USD move exploited EUR-negative sentiment from earlier in the session when S&P joined Fitch in cutting Greece’s credit rating and threatened to take further action unless Prime Minister George Papandreou tackled the daunting budget deficit. EURUSD’s dramatic fall throughout the Asian session has taken out major supports at 1.4480, touching a low of 1.4369.
The other major events of the previous session included central bank meetings from both the Riksbank and Norges Bank. There were no surprises at all from the Riksbank as they kept rates unchanged at 0.25% and offered very little new information to the market other than the widely expected confirmation that they would be ending their fixed rate tenders. Today we will get the latest Swedish Unemployment figures which are expected to tick slightly higher to 8.2% from 8.1% prior.
In contrast to the Riksbank, the Norges Bank wrong-footed consensus by hiking rates by 25bps to 1.75% - in line with our own predictions. They noted that the impact of the October hike had been “limited”, but the statement did however ensure that markets did not start pricing a more aggressive hiking cycle going forward by noting that the outlook for 2010 was still uncertain, and revealed that members had considered keeping rates on hold. Norges Bank Deputy Governor Qvigstad said in a subsequent press conference that the expectation was for no further rise in February, but he did not so far as to rule out an increase at that meeting. EURNOK plunged from 8.4400 to 8.3670 on the announcement, and NOK has managed to hold on to gains into today’s session where we await the release of the Norwegian Unemployment Rate (currently standing at an impressively low 2.6%).
The key events coming up in today’s session include UK Retail Sales for November which are expected to post at 0.5% MoM increase after the 0.4% reading last month; and will likely be a major catalyst of GBP direction from here. GBPUSD is currently fighting hard to remain above 1.6200 support, and a surprise either way in this release will likely determine whether we see a further collapse towards 1.6000, or whether we head back into the range for a retest of 1.6484. The afternoon session will be focused on Canadian CPI, and US Leading Indicators.
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|