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US Session: Risk Appetite Sends Equities, EURUSD And Gold Higher
November 09, 2009 6:17 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 2.14 |  | | | SEK | 1.98 | | | | CAD | 1.77 | | | | NOK | 1.71 | | | | AUD | 1.04 | | | | EUR | 1.00 | | | | DKK | 1.00 | | | | CHF | 0.95 | | | | GBP | 0.63 | |  | JPY | -0.06 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'232.72 | + 1.75 | | DAX Index | 5'619.72 | + 2.40 | | SMI Futures | 6'385.14 | + 1.45 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'085.19 | + 1.49 | | DJIA Index | 10'166.86 | + 1.43 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9'860.00 | + 0.82 | | Hang Seng Futures | 22'134.00 | + 1.32 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'106.78 | + 1.07 | | Silver | 17.67 | + 1.61 | | VIX | 23.62 | - 2.36 | | Crude wti | 79.82 | + 3.09 | | USD Index | 75.03 | - 1.04 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Tue 10 Nov | --- | --- | --- | | BRC retail sales monitor, total sales, % y/y Oct | - | 2.8 | GBP/00:01 | | Final CPI, % m/m (y/y) Oct | 0.1 (0.0) | 0.1 (0.0) | EUR/07:00 | | Industrial production, % m/m Sep | 0.5 | -2.9 | SEK/08:30 | | Norway: CPI, % m/m (y/y) Oct | 0.2 (0.9) | 0.8 (1.2) | NOK/09:00 | | Trade balance, £ bn Sep | -6.1 | -6.2 | GBP/09:30 | | ZEW economic expectations index Nov | 55.0 | 56.0 | EUR/10:00 |
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Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.5100
R 1: 1.5063
CURRENT: 1.4995
S 1: 1.4810
S 2: 1.4700
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.7041
R 1: 1.6843
CURRENT: 1.6720
S 1: 1.6405
S 2: 1.6240
USDJPY
R 2: 92.50
R 1: 90.75
CURRENT: 89.90
S 1: 89.60
S 2: 89.20
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9475
R 1: 0.9330
CURRENT: 0.9290
S 1: 0.9090
S 2: 0.9025
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0870
R 1: 1.0800
CURRENT: 1.0560
S 1: 1.0500
S 2: 1.0380
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Market Brief |
Risk Appetite Sends Equities, EURUSD And Gold Higher
With no significant data events to excite FX markets, today’s moves have been largely driven by improving risk sentiment since the G20 meeting. Global equity indices are up 1-2% across the board, gold remains supported above $1105 (having touched a new high of $1111.19), whilst most major and EM currencies have spent the day grinding gradually higher vs. the USD. EURUSD has climbed back above 1.5000 levels, but with few catalysts (other than higher equity markets), the pair has not yet re-tested 26 Oct highs at 1.5063.
The one exception to the trend has been GBP; after spending the morning tracking other currencies higher (hitting a peak of 1.6843), the announcement of Kraft’s latest offer for Cadbury Plc. hit the wires and showed the offer of 300 pence per share from 7 Sep had not been raised higher, disappointing some who were anticipating they would increase their bid this time round. Cadbury subsequently rejected this offer, and the GBP has spent the time since the announcement easing lower to trade at 1.6720 last.
Tomorrow’s data calendar is again quite sparse; UK BRC retail sales monitor due overnight, with Swedish Industrial Production, Norway CPI, German Final CPI and ZEW economic expectations completing the docket.
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European Session: No Mention of FX in G20 Communiqué
November 09, 2009 12:14 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | SEK | 1.77 | | | | NZD | 1.59 | | | | NOK | 1.25 | | | | AUD | 1.07 | | | | GBP | 1.00 | | | | CAD | 0.88 | | | | DKK | 0.84 | | | | EUR | 0.82 | | | | CHF | 0.79 | | | JPY | -0.30 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,808.99 | + 0.20 | | Hang Seng Index | 22,207.55 | + 1.73 | | Shanghai Index | 3,175.59 | + 0.36 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,196.38 | + 1.04 | | DAX Index | 5,559.50 | + 1.29 | | SMI Index | 6,359.13 | + 1.04 | | S&P future | 1,073.40 | + 0.67 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1,106.38 | + 1.02 | | Silver | 17.70 | + 1.78 | | VIX | 24.19 | - 4.87 | | Crude wti | 78.75 | + 1.70 | | USD Index | 75.20 | - 0.81 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Industrial production nsa, % y/y | -7.4 | -6.3 | TRY / 08.00 | | GER Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 1.0 | 1.7,-17.4 | EUR / 11.00 | | CPI, % m/m Oct | 0.44 | 0.50 | MXN / 15.00 | | Current account, JPY trn Sep | 1.51 | 1.17 | JPY / 23.50 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9475
R 1: 0.9330
CURRENT: 0.9263
S 1: 0.9090
S 2: 0.9025
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0960
R 1: 1.0872
CURRENT: 1.0644
S 1: 1.0595
S 2: 1.0500
EURJPY
R 2: 135.90
R 1: 135.70
CURRENT: 134.85
S 1: 133.25
S 2: 132.50
USDMXN
R 2: 13.535
R 1: 13.455
CURRENT: 13.341
S 1: 13.269
S 2: 13.205
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Market Brief |
The G20 communiqué released over the weekend didn’t mention FX, which cleared the way for risk appetite to surge. Asian regional equity indexes moved higher, with Hang Sang up 1.14%. Spot Gold surged to $1108.40 today, EURUSD followed up to 1.4986 and GBPUSD hit 1.6801. The risk correlation was tested on Friday, as the US released another disappointing set of payrolls (came in at -190k vs. -175k exp ) and unemployment numbers (10.2% vs. 9.8 exp). The high unemployment rate caused a knee jerk reaction of USD safe have buying, but was quickly reversed into USD sell as we had expected. The market rapidly changed their view that the weak US labor numbers were not a sign of impending collapse, but rather argued for the Fed to keep monetary policy ultra loose for an even longer period of time. In addition, after last week's three major central bank decision (Fed, BoE & ECB) it's clear that they will not tighten policy until recession and deflation risk are completely out tof the picture. So, from the markets' and our perspective, trading will be driven by the liquidity aspect of low rates, creating an environment to acquire high beta currencies. In this light calendar week, it will be important to see what Fed officials have to say following the worrying labor data, with Lockhart, Yellen, Rosengreen, Tarullo, Fisher and Evans all due to speak. Any signals of a decline in hawkish rhetoric should keep the USD under pressure.
Today in Australia, home loans outstanding rose by 5.5% m/m in September well ahead of the market expectations. The RBAs December meeting is still a close call and heavily data dependant. While 25bp is currently priced, we believe this result is conditional on Thursday unemployment data which is expected to tick higher to 5.8%.
In the UK, the highlight of the week will be the Inflation Report. Markets are leaning towards the MPC indicating a pause rather than a full stop in QE. Inflation is likely to rise above 2.0% as indicated by the BoE (a reflection of higher energy prices and reversal of last year’s reduction in VAT). However, this will not cause members to become overly hawkish given the weakness in the underlying domestic economy.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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