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US Session: Risk Assets Rally As US Data Disappoints
November 04, 2009 5:45 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NOK | 1.97 |  | | | SEK | 1.30 | | | | GBP | 1.14 | | | | CHF | 1.06 | | | | EUR | 1.03 | | | | DKK | 1.01 | | | | AUD | 0.93 | | | | NZD | 0.77 | | | | CAD | 0.48 | |  | JPY | -0.69 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,844.31 | + 0.42 | | Shanghai Index | 21,614.77 | + 1.76 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,115.99 | + 1.56 | | DAX Index | 5,458.53 | + 1.96 | | DJIA Index | 9,901.67 | + 1.32 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,059.16 | + 1.31 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9,880.00 | + 0.61 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1,092.47 | + 0.74 | | Silver | 17.53 | + 1.80 | | VIX | 26.83 | - 6.87 | | Crude wti | 80.73 | + 1.41 | | USD Index | 75.85 | - 0.59 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Czech Republic rate announcement Nov | 1.25 | 1.25 | CZK / -- | | CPI, % m/m (y/y) Oct | 0.6,-0.8 | 0.0,-0.9 | CHF / 08.15 | | Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 1.3,-10.2 | -2.5,-11.2 | GBP / 09.30 | | Manufacturing output, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 1.0,-9.9 | -1.9,-11.3 | GBP / 09.30 | | Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.4 | -0.2,-2.4 | EUR / 10.00 | | BoE MPC Bank Rate decision, % Nov | 0.50 | 0.50 | GBP / 12.00 | | ECB rate announcement, % Oct | 1.00 | 1.00 | EUR / 12.45 | | ECB press conference | -- | -- | EUR / 13.30 | | Initial jobless claims, thous (4wk ma) 31-Oct | -- | 530 (526) | USD / 13.30 | | Non-farm productivity, % q/q saar (y/y) 3Q p | 6.0 (3.4) | 6.6 (1.9) | USD / 13.30 | | Unit labour costs, % q/q saar (y/y) 3Q p | -3.2,-3.1 | -5.9,-1.2 | USD / 13.30 |
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Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.4860
R 1: 1.4810
CURRENT: 1.4841
S 1: 1.4625
S 2: 1.4580
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.6690
R 1: 1.6605
CURRENT: 1.6585
S 1: 1.6240
S 2: 1.6127
USDJPY
R 2: 92.30
R 1: 91.65
CURRENT: 90.94
S 1: 89.87
S 2: 89.20
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9220
R 1: 0.9130
CURRENT: 0.9094
S 1: 0.8905
S 2: 0.8865
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0960
R 1: 1.0870
CURRENT: 1.0626
S 1: 1.0500
S 2: 1.0380
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Market Brief |
The remaining European PMI releases this morning offered little to get FX markets moving, and Eurozone PMI was right on expectations at -0.4% MoM in Sep (-7.7% YoY). The breakdown of the PPI data highlighted ongoing deflation in consumer and capital goods components, but failed to unnerve EUR bulls as the broader trend of USD-selling prevailed across all assets classes. Gold has subsequently eased through the last remaining stops at $1090 and touched a high of $1095.60. With no residual technical levels in its path, the march towards $1100 now seems inevitable.
Equity indices across Europe and the US are broadly higher on the day as market consensus gradually converges toward the belief that tonight’s FOMC meeting will repeat the promise of low rates for a prolonged period, and cheap liquidity to fuel the rally. The afternoon’s main data event has been the US ADP Employment data that reported the loss of 203k jobs last month; slightly more than the -198k reading expected, but a little less than last month’s -254k. The continued deterioration of the US labour market has been a significant snag for theories that the Fed may be in a position to change stance or bring forward a possible tightening cycle. The ADP figures, whilst being lower in stature than Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls, have been a decent indicator of the overall trend in the past few months, and the slightly worse than expected figure today has reinforced the idea that the Fed will want to steer clear of rattling consumer confidence just yet with any statement that could be interpreted as hawkish. The other release out of the US, ISM Non-Manufacturing, was also slightly worse than anticipated at 50.6 in Oct vs. 51.5 expected. EURUSD has since rallied strongly to 1.4845 but thus far has been contained by the resistance between 1.4850-60.
All markets now await the FOMC meeting, where the all-important wording of the statement will be under intense scrutiny.
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European Session: All Eyes on the FOMC
November 04, 2009 11:26 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NOK | 1.10 | | | | SEK | 0.86 | | | | NZD | 0.84 | | | | AUD | 0.80 | | | | GBP | 0.59 | | | | EUR | 0.51 | | | | DKK | 0.50 | | | | CHF | 0.49 | | | | CAD | 0.49 | | | JPY | -0.45 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,844.31 | + 0.42 | | Hang Seng Index | 21,614.77 | + 1.76 | | Shanghai Index | 3,128.54 | + 0.45 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,064.23 | + 0.53 | | DAX Index | 5,412.00 | + 1.07 | | SMI Index | 6,233.03 | + 0.31 | | S&P future | 1,047.90 | + 0.59 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1,091.83 | + 0.68 | | Silver | 17.30 | + 0.49 | | VIX | 28.81 | - 3.25 | | Crude wti | 80.14 | + 0.67 | | USD Index | 76.16 | - 0.18 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Germany: Final Services PMI, index Oct | 50.9 | 50.9 P | EUR / 08.53 | | Final Services PMI, index Oct | 52.3 | 52.3 P | EUR / 08.58 | | Final Composite PMI, index Oct | 53.0 | 53.0 P | EUR / 08.58 | | Services PMI, index Oct | 55.2 | 55.3 | GBP / 09.28 | | PPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep | -0.4,-7.7 | 0.4,-7.5 | EUR / 10.00 | | ADP employment, chg 000s Oct | -190 | -254 | USD / 13.15 | | ISM non-manufacturing, index Oct | 51.9 | 50.9 | USD / 15.00 | | FOMC rate decision, % 04-Nov | 0.25 | 0.25 | USD / 19.15 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9215
R 1: 0.9125
CURRENT: 0.9067
S 1: 0.8905
S 2: 0.8865
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0960
R 1: 1.0870
CURRENT: 1.0625
S 1: 1.0625
S 2: 1.0500
EURJPY
R 2: 134.55
R 1: 133.97
CURRENT: 133.97
S 1: 131.75
S 2: 131.00
USDMXN
R 2: 13.455
R 1: 13.405
CURRENT: 13.2595
S 1: 13.205
S 2: 13.179
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Market Brief |
The USD has been slowly falling in the Asian session as risk appetite increases and equities rally. EURUSD traded higher to 1.4770 from 1.4660 while USDJPY climbed to 90.90 from 90.20. Risk correlated trades generally received a boost from Berkshire Hathaway agreeing to buy railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp and News Tuesday that the Reserve Bank of India bought 200 metric tons of gold from the IMF for $6.7bn . These events caused Wall Street to close slightly higher and gold to surge to $1084. Today in Australia, retail sales data surprised to the downside -0.2% vs. 0.5% exp. This data should provide a warning sign to AUD bulls, supporting the theory that the RBA will continue to move cautiously with its tightening, and slightly lowers the probability of a December rate hike (however there is lots of data between now & then). The clear highlight of the day will be tonight’s FOMC rate decision. It’s universally expected that the Fed will hold rates at their already ultra-low level tonight, so traders will be scrutinizing the language in the accompanying statement. Markets expect the FOMC to upgrade its assessment of the economy in response to recent strong economic data. In particular, we look for the Fed to adjust the phrase "although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time" to a subtly more optimist outlook. Most importantly we expect the FOMC to preserve its statement that it expects economic conditions "to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." Even the slightest cosmetic changes, towards the hawkish end of the spectrum, will spark participants running for the safe-haven exits. In addition, the statement will also likely be adapted to officially inform that the FOMC's Treasury purchase program has ended. Just before the FOMC will be the always entertaining ADP employment report. NFP on Friday will be huge for the direction of financial markets; therefore today’s ADP employment report should provide a plausible indication of the change in private payrolls given its track record this year.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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