|
|
US Session: The Dollar Trades Sideways Ahead of FOMC Minutes
November 24, 2009 5:54 PM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.50 |  |  | GBP | -0.13 | | | EUR | -0.15 | | | CHF | -0.16 | | | DKK | -0.20 | | | CAD | -0.46 | | | AUD | -0.83 | | | SEK | -0.92 | | | NOK | -1.06 | | | NZD | -1.26 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| FTSE 100 Index | 5'337.09 | - 0.34 | | DAX Index | 5'777.21 | - 0.42 | | SMI Index | 6'414.53 | + 0.07 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'101.59 | - 0.42 | | DJIA Index | 10'395.32 | - 0.53 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9'410.00 | - 0.84 | | Hang Seng Futures | 22'472.00 | - 1.39 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 1'165.15 | - 0.08 | | Silver | 18.43 | - 0.61 | | VIX | 20.98 | - 0.85 | | Crude wti | 75.69 | - 2.41 | | USD Index | 75.25 | + 0.17 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| Wed 25 Nov | --- | --- | --- | | Germany: GfK consumer confidence, index Dec | 4.0 | 4.0 | EUR/07:00 | | Consumer confidence, index Nov | 8.5 | 7.5 | SEK/08:15 | | Manufacturing confidence, index Nov | -12 | -13 | SEK/08:15 | | Unemployment rate AKU, % Sep | 3.3 | 3.2 | NOK/09:00 | | GDP - second estimate, % q/q (y/y) Q3 | -0.3(-5.1) | -0.4(-5.2) | GBP/09:30 | | Durable goods orders, % m/m Oct | 0.5 | 1.4 | USD/13:30 | | PCE price index, % m/m (y/y) Oct | 0.1 (0.1) | 0.1 (-0.5) | USD/13:30 | | Initial jobless claims, thous 21-Nov | 500 | 505 | USD/13:30 | | Continuing claims, thous 14-Nov | 5565 | 5611 | USD/13:30 | | U/M consumer sentiment index Nov f | 67.0 | 66.0 | USD/15:00 | | New home sales, % m/m Oct | 0.4 | -3.6 | USD/15:00 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.5060
R 1: 1.5000
CURRENT: 1.4935
S 1: 1.4800
S 2: 1.4785
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.7040
R 1: 1.6845
CURRENT: 1.6580
S 1: 1.6460
S 2: 1.6272
USDJPY
R 2: 90.85
R 1: 90.60
CURRENT: 88.55
S 1: 88.00
S 2: 87.10
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9380
R 1: 0.9340
CURRENT: 0.9160
S 1: 0.9060
S 2: 0.8970
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0780
R 1: 1.0733
CURRENT: 1.0610
S 1: 1.0540
S 2: 1.0450
|
|
Market Brief |
FX markets have traded sideways today; as the morning bout of risk aversion on the back of weaker Asian equities soon gave way to risk appetite when European equities began recouping opening losses.
We had a slew of data releases out of Europe in the morning, starting with Swiss Employment data that revealed a shock increase of 0.2% (annualized) in Q3, against forecasts for a -0.8% decline. USDCHF only dipped 10 pips after the release; and the subsequent grind lower has been more symptomatic of broader USD weakness than CHF strength. Despite the sell-off in the USD, well-defined support below 1.0080 once again held firm; as the pair tested 1.0081 lows twice before rebounding comfortably back towards the middle of the range above 1.0120.
Next up was the release of the German IFO surveys, where all three categories beat expectations, and previous readings to the Business Climate and Current Assessment components were revised higher. EURUSD’s upward momentum continued, but yet again, resistance around 1.5000 levels rebuffed a continuation of the rally, and since then we have seen both European and US equities turn lower once more which has enabled the USD to stabilize back within recent ranges.
The headline event of the European session, namely the BoE members’ testimony to the UK Treasury passed with very little incident or knock-on effect in the FX market. GBPUSD was subdued around 1.6500 levels throughout the address as investors remained cautious of any indications of further accommodative policy on the horizon, but this did not materialize and as soon as the session was concluded there was a quick rally higher for the GBP. Tomorrow’s second reading of Q3 GDP is expected to show a slight upward revision to -0.3% QoQ from the initial -0.4% reading but given the wide disparity between official figures and other measures released over the period we feel there is scope for an upward surprise.
Ahead of this evening’s release of the FOMC Minutes, the USD ranges have been resilient; with the on-consensus revision of Q3 GDP to 2.8% having little influence on EURUSD. Consumer Confidence figures beat expectations at 49.5 in Nov (against 47.5 expected, prior month also revised up to 48.7 from 47.7), which coupled with lower equity markets to push the USD back towards flat on the day.
|
|
European Session: Dollar Back In The Ranges As Risk Appetite Oscillates
November 24, 2009 8:46 AM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.33 | | | EUR | -0.44 | | | GBP | -0.45 | | | CHF | -0.47 | | | DKK | -0.48 | | | CAD | -0.77 | | | NOK | -0.84 | | | SEK | -0.87 | | | AUD | -1.04 | | | NZD | -1.30 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 9'401.58 | - 1.01 | | Hang Seng Index | 22'437.55 | - 1.47 | | Shanghai Index | 3'223.53 | - 3.45 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5'355.50 | + 1.98 | | DAX Index | 5'801.48 | + 2.44 | | SMI Index | 6'410.24 | + 2.12 | | S&P future | 1'099.30 | - 0.41 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 1'163.42 | - 0.23 | | Silver | 18.49 | - 0.33 | | VIX | 21.16 | - 4.64 | | Crude wti | 76.94 | - 0.80 | | USD Index | 75.43 | + 0.40 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| Employment level, % y/y Q3 | -0.8 | -0.4 | CHF/08:15 | | IFO business climate, index Nov | 92.5 | 91.9 | EUR/09:00 | | IFO current assessment, index Nov | 88.0 | 87.3 | EUR/09:00 | | IFO business expectations, index Nov | 97.3 | 96.8 | EUR/09:00 | | GDP, % q/q Q3 | 0.8 | -1.3 | NOK/09:00 | | Business investment, % q/q Q3 | -5.0 | -10.2 | GBP/09:30 | | Industrial orders, % m/m Sep | 1.0 | 2.0 | EUR/10:00 | | GDP, % q/q saar (y/y) Q3 2nd | 2.8 | 3.5 | USD/13:30 | | Consumer confidence index Nov | 47.5 | 47.7 | USD/15:00 | | Richmond Fed manufacturing, index Nov | 8 | 7 | USD/15:00 | | FOMC Mintues released | --- | --- | USD/19:00 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9380
R 1: 0.9340
CURRENT: 0.9155
S 1: 0.9060
S 2: 0.8970
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0780
R 1: 1.0733
CURRENT: 1.0630
S 1: 1.0540
S 2: 1.0450
EURJPY
R 2: 134.02
R 1: 132.95
CURRENT: 132.10
S 1: 131.75
S 2: 131.00
USDMXN
R 2: 13.265
R 1: 13.120
CURRENT: 13.02
S 1: 12.998
S 2: 12.975
|
|
Market Brief |
Right on cue, the next whim of risk aversion has kicked in just as EURUSD looked to be on the brink of threatening the top end of its range at 1.5000. The catalyst today has been a poor session for Asian equities, prompted in part by Standard & Poor’s bleak assessment of Japanese banks; citing Sumitmo Mitsui and Mitsubishi UFJ as among the banks with the weakest capital. The Shanghai Composite is also down nearly 3.5%, allowing the USD to recoup some of its losses from the previous day, ensuring the DXY is now consolidating back above 75 levels. EURUSD is firmly back in the middle of its 1.4800-15000 range, and given the market’s indecision about what good/bad US data means for the USD (see yesterday’s FX reaction to the massive upside surprise in US Existing Home Sales), it seems that only a significant shift in the prospects for US policy and the USD are likely to evince a clear breakout of tight FX ranges.
Today’s data calendar is packed with high profile risk events for the majors, kicking off with Swiss Employment Levels which is forecast to show a continued decline in Q3 at an annualized pace of -0.8%. The primary focus for the SNB (and consequently their currency policy) is normalizing inflation, but given the considerable deflationary drag of rising unemployment, the CHF is likely to suffer on a downside surprise. With USDCHF trading at the lower end of its own range in the past day, the range-bound bias of FX markets also looks poised for a correction upwards in USDCHF.
Next we will see the German IFO survey results which are expected to show modest improvements across each category; however these are unlikely to evoke a strong effect on EURUSD with such entrenched ranges dictating trading. More likely to provide fireworks will be the UK central bank Governor Mervyn King and fellow MPC members testifying to the Treasury on the most recent Inflation Report (released last week). The two key things to watch out for here will be any indications on the likelihood of further QE, or indeed repeated suggestions of a cut to the deposit rate (mentioned in the Inflation report as a possible step in the future to increase sluggish lending). Any shift to favouring more accommodative policy will likely be severely GBP-negative, and we see GBPUSD as the most likely candidate to break out of its range on the downside.
This afternoon’s docket will provide the second reading of US Q3 GDP which is anticipated to be revised lower to 2.8% from the 3.5% initial print, followed by US Consumer Confidence. Although both are significant in stature, we feel there will be limited scope for either release to significantly affect USD ranges as the markets await the FOMC Minutes release later in the evening.
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|