|
|
US Session: Better US ISM Data Boosts Risk Appetite As Markets Shrug Off CIT News
November 02, 2009 6:02 PM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | SEK | 1.39 |  | | | AUD | 0.98 | | | | CAD | 0.91 | | | | CHF | 0.83 | | | | DKK | 0.76 | | | | EUR | 0.75 | | | | NZD | 0.54 | | | | NOK | 0.46 | |  | GBP | -0.31 | | | JPY | -0.95 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| FTSE 100 Index | 5'096.25 | + 1.02 | | DAX Index | 5'423.53 | + 0.16 | | SMI Index | 6'291.22 | + 0.09 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'047.78 | + 1.12 | | DJIA Index | 9'828.66 | + 1.19 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9'830.00 | - 1.80 | | Hang Seng Futures | 21'385.00 | - 1.13 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 1'061.27 | + 1.52 | | Silver | 16.66 | + 2.12 | | VIX | 28.66 | - 6.61 | | Crude wti | 78.38 | + 1.79 | | USD Index | 76.01 | - 0.38 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| Tue 3 Nov | - | - | - | | RBA cast rate decision, % Nov | 3.50 | 3.25 | AUD/03:30 | | Manufacturing PMI, index Oct | 49.0 | 47.4 | NOK/08:00 | | Construction PMI, index Oct | 47.2 | 46.7 | GBP/09:28 | | Factory orders, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.8 | -0.8 | USD/15:00 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.4927
R 1: 1.4876
CURRENT: 1.4830
S 1: 1.4684
S 2. 1.4646
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.6693
R 1: 1.6604
CURRENT: 1.6410
S 1: 1.6330
S 2: 1.6252
USDJPY
R 2: 92.50
R 1: 91.20
CURRENT: 90.50
S 1: 89.60
S 2: 89.20
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9330
R 1: 0.9220
CURRENT: 0.9085
S 1: 0.8865
S 2: 0.8760
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0959
R 1: 1.0870
CURRENT: 1.0740
S 1: 1.0627
S 2: 1.0505
|
|
Market Brief |
Today’s data has been awash with PMI releases out of Europe, which were all broadly in line with forecasts (Eurozone, Germany), or better than expected (Sweden, Italy, France, UK). There was very little impact on FX markets after the releases, no doubt due to the more significant central bank meetings and data releases coming up in the remainder of the week. EURUSD drifted between 1.4730 and 1.4800 for most of the morning, and most other currencies traded sideways in tight ranges; the one exception to the range-bound majors being GBP which suffered heavy selling from models in GBPJPY, and continued real money sellers in GBPUSD took out stops through 1.6350 to touch a low of 1.6330.
The market-moving event of the day was the simultaneous release of the US ISM, Pending Home Sales and Construction Spending data – all of which beat expectations and improved on the month prior. ISM Manufacturing came out at 55.7 (53.0 exp, 52.6 last), and the Prices Paid component posted a 65.0 reading (64.0 exp, 63.5 last). The effect was immediate as the USD slipped rapidly against the majors and gold, whilst equity markets were boosted firmly into positive territory. EURUSD popped higher from 1.4770 to 1.4820 (and since to touch a high of 1.4845), and GBPUSD spiked from 1.6340 to 1.6415 before failing at resistance around 1.6440. Gold is now confidently above $1060, however the sustainability of the USD sell-off that has fuelled risk-assets higher will continue to hinge on the outcome of Wednesday’s crucial Fed meeting.
Until then, the main event in the day ahead will be the RBA rate meeting (the first of four major rate announcements this week); markets are anticipating another 25bps hike to 3.5%. Although an outside possibility, we feel it is unlikely they will hike by 50bps, but as always the accompanying statement will be a key driver of the projected path of rates in the coming year, and thus far officials have remained comfortable with the strength of AUDUSD.
Also due will be Norway Manufacturing PMI, UK Construction PMI, and US Factory Orders.
|
|
European Session: CIT Bankruptcy Shakes Risk Appetite...Briefly
November 02, 2009 10:23 AM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | AUD | 0.59 | | | | NZD | 0.43 | | | | DKK | 0.10 | | | | EUR | 0.08 | | | | NOK | 0.06 | | | | CAD | 0.03 | | | | SEK | 0.02 | | | | CHF | 0.01 | | | GBP | -0.07 | | | JPY | -0.14 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,802.95 | - 2.30 | | Hang Seng Index | 21,541.26 | - 0.97 | | Shanghai Index | 3,076.65 | + 2.69 | | FTSE futures | 5,001.00 | - 2.20 | | DAX futures | 5,425.00 | + 0.42 | | SMI Futures | 6,279.00 | - 0.01 | | S&P future | 1,039.30 | + 0.60 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 1,045.84 | + 0.04 | | Silver | 16.41 | + 0.58 | | VIX | 30.69 | + 23.94 | | Crude wti | 77.17 | + 0.22 | | USD Index | 76.26 | - 0.04 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| Manufacturing PMI, index Oct | -- | 55.9 | SEK / 07.30 | | Manufacturing PMI, index Oct | 54.9 | 54.3 | CHF / 08.30 | | Germany: Final Manufacturing PMI, index Oct | 51.1 | 51.1 P | EUR / 08.53 | | Final Manufacturing PMI, index Oct | 50.7 | 50.7 | EUR / 0.8.58 | | Manufacturing PMI, index Oct | 50.0 | 49.5 | GBP / 09.28 | | ISM manufacturing, index Oct | 53.0 | 52.6 | USD / 15.00 | | Pending home sales, %m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.4 (14.6) | 6.4 (12.3) | USD / 15.00 | | Construction spending, %m/m (y/y) Sep | -0.3,-13.1 | 0.8,-11.6 | USD / 15.00 | | SNB board member Jordan speaks | -- | -- | CHF / 16.30 | | Fed Governor Tarullo (FOMC voter) speaks on execut | -- | -- | USD / 19.15 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9330
R 1: 0.9220
CURRENT: 0.9047
S 1: 0.8865
S 2: 0.8760
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0990
R 1: 1.0959
CURRENT: 1.0799
S 1: 1.0627
S 2: 1.0505
EURJPY
R 2: 135.97
R 1: 134.75
CURRENT: 132.96
S 1: 132.30
S 2: 132.25
USDMXN
R 2: 13.454
R 1: 13.365
CURRENT: 13.2477
S 1: 13.15
S 2: 12.986
|
|
Market Brief |
The slightly weaker US economic data, as well as worries about the stability of the US financial industry, prompted selling in risk correlated trades last week. In the FX market, high beta currencies were the biggest losers as falling equity and commodity prices renewed risk-aversion & spawned correction fears. Friday U.S. stocks tumbled the most since July after declines in personal spending and consumer confidence and the threat of a CIT bankruptcy raised concern over the durability of the economic recovery. The S&P 500 Index dropped 2.5% to 1,039.04 The Dow Jones Index dropped 230.65 points, or 2.3 percent, to 9,731.93 as the consumer confidence data signaled job losses may continue to restrain household spending. Citigroup tumbled on a report predicting a $10 billion write-down for Q4. American Express Co. and Walt Disney Co. slid after drop in purchases and the University of Michigan sentiment index weakened. The consumer sentiment decreased to 70.6 from 73.5 in September, which was the highest in more than a year. Markets are still very nervous and have been cautious about building long risk position however we expect the sentiment to improve as the week’s progresses. However, soon after the announcement of the CIT pre-packaged bankruptcy, risk correlated trades were able to rally back and have been gaining (helped along by postive European equities). Today starts a week, crammed with economic data and central bank meetings, with a string of manufacturing surveys. In Asia, the China PMIs printed higher then expected. The figure was an 18month high and continues to signal strong expansion in the manufacturing sector. In the US session October's ISM manufacturing index is expected to more than reverse the surprise fall in September. With US economic data providing a source of FX volatility recently the stronger figures should help firm up risk appetite.
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|