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US Session: US Data Underperforms
November 13, 2009 5:52 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 1.13 |  | | | JPY | 0.85 | | | | AUD | 0.70 | | | | GBP | 0.72 | | | | SEK | 0.58 | | | | NOK | 0.51 | | | | CAD | 0.24 | | | | CHF | 0.16 | | | | EUR | 0.09 | | | | DKK | 0.05 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,770.31 | - 0.34 | | Shanghai Index | 3,187.65 | + 0.46 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,289.26 | + 0.24 | | DAX Index | 5,679.28 | + 0.27 | | SMI Index | 6,335.73 | - 0.31 | | DJIA Index | 10,280.60 | + 0.81 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,094.26 | + 0.64 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1,113.20 | + 0.85 | | Silver | 17.32 | + 0.60 | | VIX | 23.56 | - 2.80 | | Crude wti | 76.62 | - 0.41 | | USD Index | 75.35 | - 0.45 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks | -- | -- | USD / 16.30 | | New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks | -- | -- | USD / 16.30 |
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Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.5060
R 1: 1.5045
CURRENT: 1.4881
S 1: 1.4820
S 2: 1.4785
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.6845
R 1: 1.6795
CURRENT: 1.6670
S 1: 1.6515
S 2: 1.6400
USDJPY
R 2: 90.85
R 1: 90.60
CURRENT: 89.65
S 1: 89.60
S 2: 89.25
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9475
R 1: 0.9370
CURRENT: 0.9312
S 1: 0.9210
S 2: 0.9195
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0780
R 1: 1.0603
CURRENT: 1.0493
S 1: 1.0415
S 2: 1.0375
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Market Brief |
FX markets just have that feeling of being tired. USD gained much of the ground it lost in European session as the outlook for US growth took a negative turn. But first in the European session Q3 GDP growth figures printed at 0.4% q/q slightly lower then the 0.5% expected but still showing that the economy emerged from the recession. The US University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence fell for the second straight month from 70.6 in October to 66.0 in November. This seems to illustrate that consumers will remain in active throughout the economic recovery. The lack of consumer’s participation is perhaps the core reason why we expect economic recovery will falter next year. Also in the US session Sept. trade deficit widened to -$36.47bn vs. -$31.65bn exp. These trade figures suggest that annualized GDP growth in Q3 may be revised down from the strong first estimate of 3.5%. Despite the recent correction in risk appetite we continue to believe that the USD will be the worlds funding currency of choice through the new year. Geithner and random policymakers reiterated the “strong USD” corporate line which might have spooked the markets slightly. But with a weekend for the market to get some perceptive (we don’t expect market rattling noise from Singapore) and next weeks heavy economic calendar the USD selling should continue.
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European Session: Waiting on Eurozone GDP
November 13, 2009 10:40 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | GBP | 0.50 | | | | AUD | 0.36 | | | | SEK | 0.26 | | | | NZD | 0.19 | | | | NOK | 0.17 | | | | JPY | 0.14 | | | | EUR | 0.03 | | | | DKK | 0.01 | |  | CHF | -0.02 | | | CAD | -0.5 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,770.31 | - 0.34 | | Hang Seng Index | 22,500.84 | + 0.46 | | Shanghai Index | 3,187.65 | + 0.46 | | FTSE futures | 5,260.50 | + 0.22 | | DAX futures | 5,666.00 | - 0.12 | | SMI Futures | 6,335.00 | - 0.11 | | S&P future | 1,089.20 | + 0.17 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1,106.09 | + 0.20 | | Silver | 17.31 | + 0.56 | | VIX | 24.24 | + 5.20 | | Crude wti | 77.13 | + 0.24 | | USD Index | 75.52 | - 0.22 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| GDP, % y/y Q3 | -4.6 | -5.5 | CZK / 08.00 | | GDP, % y/y Q3 | -6.7 | -7.5 | HUF / 08.00 | | "flash" GDP, % q/q Q3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | EUR / 10.00 | | ECB Executive Board member Gonzalez-Paramo speaks | -- | -- | EUR / 12.00 | | Trade balance, bn $ Sep | -$32.0 | -$30.7 | USD / 13.30 | | Import prices, % m/m (y/y) Oct | 1.0 (-5.6) | 0.1 (-12.0 | USD / 13.30 | | Nonpetroleum import prices, % m/m (y/y) Oct | -- | 0.4 (-5.4) | USD / 13.30 | | U/M consumer sentiment index Nov P | 71.0 | 70.6 | USD / 13.30 | | Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks | -- | -- | USD / 16.30 | | New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks | -- | -- | USD / 16.30 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9475
R 1. 0.9370
CURRENT: 0.9280
S 1: 0.9210
S 2: 0.9195
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0780
R 1: 1.0608
CURRENT: 1.3887
S 1: 1.0418
S 2: 1.0380
EURJPY
R 2: 135.39
R 1: 135.03
CURRENT: 134.29
S 1: 133.80
S 2: 133.20
USDMXN
R 2: 13.345
R 1: 13.265
CURRENT: 13.1809
S 1: 13.109
S 2: 13.065
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Market Brief |
With a light calendar today, markets should continue to consolidate. Concerns over reports that China might increase the rate of CNY appreciation are also still lingering. Softer equities in Asia have coincided with USD strength, but with European stock staging a subtle comeback (volumes continue to be unimpressive) we are seeing EUR buyers step into the fray. Commodities were generally lower and crude is at wti $77.40. The EURUSD traded between 1.4825 and 1.4895, while spot Gold climbed steady upward to $1108oz. JGBs have produced the most interesting moves this week, with 10-yr JGB yields falling from a close of 1.4690 on Monday to 1.3370 in today’s trading. There has been plenty of speculation regarding the budget and when some positive buzz hit the markets investors were caught short.
The key release of the day will be the Eurozone Q3 GDP, which should reveal that the economy has moved out of recession. However, data released this morning suggest that the region expanded slower in Q3 than the market had expected. Aggregate GDP figures from Germany (+0.7% q/q), France (+0.3% q/q) and Italy (+0.6%) all printed rather smaller gains than expected, given monthly industrial production data and some of the business surveys. The new data seems to suggest that the risk of a disappointing figure has increased.
In the US session, the US trade balance will be released. The latest rise in the oil price is likely to boost the value of oil imports by another $3bn, pushing the trade deficit wider in September. And to wrap up the release week U. of Michigan consumer confidence survey should provide some guide as to whether the dip in the Conference Board measure in was just a one off or the start of a renewed downward trend. Lower gasoline prices, the rise in the S&P 500 combined with drop in initial jobless claims hint that confidence should resume its plodding upward trend. As always, a slew of speakers could provide market volatility.
APEC summit will be held this weekend in Singapore. The market will be listening for specific rhetoric on currency flexibility and policy exit strategies.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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