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The Dollar Recovers On Technical Momentum
November 12, 2009 5:40 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NOK | 0.11 |  |  | GBP | -0.25 | | | AUD | -0.52 | | | JPY | -0.62 | | | CAD | -0.65 | | | EUR | -0.81 | | | NZD | -0.81 | | | DKK | -0.84 | | | CHF | -0.85 | | | SEK | -0.99 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'275.72 | + 0.17 | | DAX Index | 5'673.52 | + 0.09 | | SMI Index | 6'355.76 | - 0.30 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'093.44 | - 0.46 | | DJIA Index | 10'249.92 | - 0.40 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9'770.00 | - 1.11 | | Hang Seng Futures | 22'465.00 | - 0.88 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'110.53 | - 0.62 | | Silver | 17.29 | - 1.82 | | VIX | 24.11 | + 4.64 | | Crude wti | 76.92 | - 2.98 | | USD Index | 75.62 | + 0.73 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Monthly Budget Statement, $ bn Oct | -162.5 | -155.5 | USD/19:00 | | Industrial Production, % m/m (y/y) | --- (---) | 1.4(-18.9) | JPY/04:30 | | Consumer Confidence, index Oct | 40.5 | 40.7 | JPY/05:00 | | Producer & Import Prices, % m/m (y/y) Oct | 0.1 (-4.1) | 0.2 (-4.9) | CHF/08:15 | | "flash" GDP, % q/q Q3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | EUR/10:00 | | Trade balance, bn $ Sep | -31.8 | -30.7 | USD/13:30 | | Import prices, % m/m (y/y) Oct | 1.0 (-5.5) | 0.1(-12.0) | USD/13:30 | | U/M consumer sentiment index Nov P | 71.0 | 70.6 | USD/15:00 |
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Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.5063
R 1: 1.4950
CURRENT: 1.4860
S 1: 1.4860
S 2: 1.4810
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.7041
R 1: 1.6843
CURRENT: 1.6530
S 1: 1.6405
S 2: 1.6240
USDJPY
R 2: 92.50
R 1: 90.75
CURRENT: 90.40
S 1: 89.20
S 2: 88.85
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9475
R 1: 0.9370
CURRENT: 0.9235
S 1: 0.9195
S 2: 0.9090
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0780
R 1: 1.0608
CURRENT: 1.0530
S 1: 1.0420
S 2: 1.0380
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Market Brief |
The USD has recouped some losses today as equities put in a mixed performance and stale USD shorts were cleared from the market on technically-driven momentum. The morning’s release of European Industrial Production was broadly balanced in effect on risk sentiment as the September reading missed forecasts at 0.2% MoM (0.5% expected), but the reading from the month prior was revised higher from 0.9% to 1.2%. The afternoon session was equally uneventful as US claims data was slightly better than expected on aggregate, but FX markets seemed more concerned with the 3-day head-and-shoulders pattern discernable on most USD currency pairs, and the technical break of the neckline which would signal further USD upside to come. EURUSD finally exhausted support at 1.4950 and has since dipped to 1.4865 lows, just above where the 12-month uptrend and major support comes in. Meanwhile gold has retraced back to $1114 levels after rising to new highs at $1123 at the start of the day, and silver has also pared back to $17.50 as the USD has strengthened.
In the coming Asian session we can expect Japanese Industrial Production and Consumer Confidence; but we feel there is limited scope for JPY strength on the back of these figures. Just this morning, Finance Secretary Furumoto was quoted as saying that he cannot be optimistic about Japan’s outlook, and that the Japanese economy doesn’t warrant exit strategies at this stage.
Tomorrow the main data release (and key focus for the week) will be Eurozone Q3 GDP – a data point that will be one of the few remaining significant drivers of risk sentiment going into year end. With risk-asset rallies feeling a little fatigued during this week of light data, a poor number may well trigger a more aggressive correction than has currently played out. Expectations are looking for a 0.5% expansion after last quarter’s -0.2% reading.
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Risk Appetite Elevated After Australian Jobs Data
November 12, 2009 8:54 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | AUD | 0.54 | | | | NZD | 0.22 | | | | CAD | 0.18 | | | | NOK | 0.17 | | | | JPY | 0.11 | | | | EUR | 0.03 | | | | DKK | 0.00 | | | CHF | -0.01 | | | GBP | -0.04 | | | SEK | -0.17 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9'804.49 | - 0.68 | | Hang Seng Index | 22'434.83 | - 0.85 | | Shanghai Index | 3'172.95 | - 0.07 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5'266.75 | + 0.69 | | DAX Index | 5'668.35 | + 0.98 | | SMI Index | 6'374.70 | + 0.09 | | S&P future | 1'092.50 | - 0.35 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'120.41 | + 0.27 | | Silver | 17.65 | + 0.23 | | VIX | 23.04 | + 0.88 | | Crude wti | 79.36 | + 0.10 | | USD Index | 75.04 | - 0.03 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| CPI, % m/m (Y/Y) Oct | 0.2 (-1.6) | 0.3 (-1.6) | SEK/08:30 | | Industrial production, % m/m Sep | 0.5 | 0.9 | EUR/10:00 | | Housing price index, % m/m (Sep) | 0.2 | 0.1 | CAD/13:30 | | Initial jobless claims, thous 07-Nov | 510 | 512 | USD/13:30 | | Continuing claims, thous 07-Nov | 5700 | 5749 | USD/13:30 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9475
R 1: 0.9370
CURRENT: 0.9340
S 1: 0.9195
S 2: 0.9090
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0780
R 1: 1.0608
CURRENT: 1.0445
S 1: 1.0420
S 2: 1.0380
EURJPY
R 2: 135.99
R 1: 135.70
CURRENT: 134.30
S 1: 133.22
S 2: 132.50
USDMXN
R 2: 13.442
R 1: 13.340
CURRENT: 13.147
S 1: 13.065
S 2: 12.988
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Market Brief |
Risk appetite has been maintained across the FX markets after Australian Unemployment figures overnight remained relatively stable at 5.8% as expected. AUDUSD rallied sharply after the release from 0.9310 to 0.9370, and bids have kept the pair elevated around 0.9350 levels into the European session. The news comes in the wake of disappointing New Zealand Retail Sales figures which could only muster a 0.2% gain on the month against expectations for a 0.4% print; ensuring AUDNZD surged back above 1.2600 levels for the first time since last week. Despite Asian equities putting in a mediocre performance (albeit after a strongly positive week overall), gold has powered to new highs yet again above $1123 – taking us up nearly 8% in just the first 2 weeks of this month.
This morning’s session kicks off with Swedish CPI which is forecast to gain 0.2% MoM after last month’s 0.3% reading. Swedish data has been somewhat disappointing in the past month, with Industrial Production, Retail Sales and PPI all coming in lower than expected, and the Unemployment rate ticking higher to 8.3%. We feel this backdrop makes it unlikely the Riksbank will shift to a more hawkish stance in their December meeting, but considering the recent pattern of other central banks trying to convey a more balanced view of the recovery from here (Fed, ECB, BoE), this will be an important reading to take into account. Also important for momentum players will be the 5-day moving average crossing below the 20-day moving earlier this week, EURSEK first support comes in around 10.1500 levels.
Later in the morning expect Eurozone Industrial Production (0.5% MoM expected, 0.9% last); however we feel that the significance of this number will be overshadowed by tomorrow’s Q3 GDP reading. In the meantime expect EURUSD to be predominantly driven by risk appetite themes (watch equity markets and gold), and technical levels that have kept the pair range bound for most of the week – 1.4950 key support, 1.5045-63 resistance zone. With the US back from yesterday’s public holiday, we expect a return to normal liquidity in the afternoon session, but data events will be light with just Canadian Housing Price Index and US claims numbers due.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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