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US Session:
November 11, 2009 5:39 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | CAD | 0.88 |  | | | SEK | 0.34 | | | | JPY | 0.05 | |  | CHF | -0.11 | | | AUD | -0.15 | | | EUR | -0.18 | | | DKK | -0.20 | | | NOK | -0.22 | | | NZD | -0.54 | | | GBP | -1.14 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'266.65 | + 0.69 | | DAX Index | 5'657.36 | + 0.79 | | SMI Index | 6'373.04 | + 0.06 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'096.49 | + 0.32 | | DJIA Index | 10'274.33 | + 0.27 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9'960.00 | + 0.91 | | Hang Seng Futures | 22'665.00 | + 1.84 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'113.80 | + 0.72 | | Silver | 17.53 | + 1.04 | | VIX | 23.60 | + 3.33 | | Crude wti | 79.26 | + 0.27 | | USD Index | 75.14 | + 0.15 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Retail sales % m/m Sep | 0.4 | 1.1 | NZD/21:45 | | Thu 12 Nov | --- | --- | --- | | Net change employment, thous Oct | -10.0 | 40.6 | AUD/00:30 | | Unemployment rate % Oct | 5.8 | 5.7 | AUD/00:30 | | CPI, % m/m (y/y) Oct | 0.2 (-1.6) | 0.3 (-1.6) | SEK/08:30 | | Industrial production sa, % m/m Sep | 0.5 | 0.9 | EUR/10:00 | | Initial jobless claims, thous 07-Nov | 510 | 512 | USD/13:30 |
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Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.5100
R 1: 1.5063
CURRENT: 1.4980
S 1: 1.4950
S 2: 1.4810
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.7041
R 1: 1.6843
CURRENT: 1.6565
S 1: 1.6405
S 2: 1.6240
USDJPY
R 2: 92.50
R 1: 90.75
CURRENT: 89.90
S 1: 89.20
S 2: 88.85
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9475
R 1: 0.9330
CURRENT: 0.9290
S 1: 0.9195
S 2: 0.9090
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0780
R 1: 1.0608
CURRENT: 1.0460
S 1: 1.0430
S 2: 1.0380
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Market Brief |
GBP has taken a considerable beating today compared with its major peers despite a surprise drop in ILO Unemployment rate to 7.8% (8.0% expected, 7.9% last), and the BoE’s Quarterly Inflation Report which upgraded growth forecasts modestly and indicated inflation was set to rise sharply in the short term. GBPUSD was trading around 1.6750 before the release but rapidly plunged down to 1.6650 and continued to trade lower throughout the afternoon. The aggressive sell-off in GBP was attributed to Mervyn King’s comments that the committee “has a completely open mind as to whether to do more asset purchases or not”; jeopardizing theories that the extra GBP25bn pledged for asset purchases by the MPC last week would be the last. At the time of writing, GBPUSD had touched 1.6552 lows and dragged EURUSD down in sympathy to 1.4965 levels; but the choppy liquidity is unsurprising given the Veteran’s Day holiday in the US.
Aside from the BoE event, it has been a largely uneventful day’s trading; equity indices across Europe and the US (still open despite the public holiday) have continued their gradual ascent higher and gold has remained well supported above $1113.50 after touching new highs at $1118.65. Indeed, the momentum of risk appetite and associated USD-selling, coupled with today’s patchy liquidity was the only apparent driver that earlier impelled the DXY to fresh new lows at 74.78 – levels not seen since August 2008.
There should be a decent pick-up in market-moving data events in the coming sessions, beginning with New Zealand Retail Sales later this evening where markets are expecting a 0.4% gain in September after last month’s impressive 1.1% print. We will also get Australian Unemployment which is expected to tick up slightly to 5.8% after last month’s surprise drop. Both AUD and NZD are well off their lows after last week’s risk unwind but RSI indicators remain in benign territory around 50-60 so expect better-than-expected figures to prompt fresh demand for the high-yielders. Into tomorrow’s European session, expect the main events to be Swedish CPI and Eurozone Industrial Production, but as always, the intensity of risk sentiment is likely to be the dominant driver of most currency pairs.
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European Session: Risk Rally Continues on Strong Chinese Data
November 11, 2009 10:17 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | CAD | 0.53 | | | | NOK | 0.34 | | | | SEK | 0.25 | | | | DKK | 0.15 | | | | AUD | 0.17 | | | | GBP | 0.17 | | | | EUR | 0.13 | | | | CHF | 0.08 | | | | NZD | 0.01 | | | JPY | -0.18 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,871.68 | + 0.01 | | Hang Seng Index | 22,524.11 | + 1.14 | | Shanghai Index | 3,175.19 | - 0.10 | | FTSE futures | 5,220.50 | + 0.11 | | DAX futures | 5,651.00 | + 0.56 | | SMI Futures | 6,403.00 | + 0.51 | | S&P future | 1,095.40 | + 0.32 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1,108.60 | + 0.25 | | Silver | 17.40 | + 0.28 | | VIX | 22.84 | - 1.33 | | Crude wti | 78.86 | - 0.24 | | USD Index | 75.04 | + 0.02 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Public holiday | -- | -- | USD / -- | | BoE publishes quarterly Inflation Report Q4 | -- | -- | GBP / 10.30 | | Claimant count unemployment, change K Oct | 20.0 | 20.8 | GBP / 09.30 | | ILO unemployment rate, % Sep | 8.0 | 7.9 | GBP / 09.30 | | Average earnings growth, % 3m y/y Sep | 1.5 | 1.6 | GBP / 09.30 | | Core average earnings growth, % 3m y/y Sep | 1.8 | 1.9 | GBP / 09.30 | | Industrial production, % y/y Sep | -7.2 | -7.3 | MXN / 20.30 | | Retail Sale m/m | 0.4 | 1.1 | NZD / 21.45 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9475
R 1: 0.9330
CURRENT: 0.9288
S 1: 0.9195
S 2: 0.9090
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0780
R 1: 1.0608
CURRENT: 1.0475
S 1: 1.0450
S 2: 1.0380
EURJPY
R 2: 135.99
R 1: 135.70
CURRENT: 134.66
S 1: 133.22
S 2: 132.50
USDMXN
R 2: 13.442
R 1: 13.340
CURRENT: 13.194
S 1: 13.177
S 2: 13.065
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Market Brief |
Risk correlated trades continue to appreciate and are showing no signs of weakening. In fact, there are fundamental reasons why the rally should continue. First, several Fed officials suggested that the Fed is still not close to shifting its policy stance. Fed Presidents Lockhart, Yellen and Rosengren, in particular, sounded wary on the economic recovery, even as they recognized the significance of eventual policy tightening. Their comments apparently supported the feeling that the Fed would keep rates ultra loose for a while, which has caused the USD to depreciate broadly. The recent rise in the long end of the US yield curve reflects concerns over inflation, but hasn’t shifted enough to warrant reconsidering inflation expectations. In Asia, stronger economic data also help support risk taking, as Japanese core machine orders and Chinese industrial production and retail sales surprised to the upside. In addition, Both Korean and Taiwanese trade data also exceeded expectations recently, which is important because these trade figures generally act as leading indicators. EURUSD rose to 1.5049 while spot Gold climbed to $1117.33oz.
In New Zealand, RBNZ Governor Bollard cautioned on recent kiwi strength. He stated that the currency's current price was unsustainable and that continued strength could deter progress in the current account. The Governor's word did little to dampen NZD strength as the NZDUSD climbed to 0.7440. However, these comments highlight a rising concern by policymakers globally over the recent USD slide and we should expect increasingly hawkish rhetoric.
The key event on this light calendar day will be the Bank of England Inflation Report and press conference. Markets expect that today will reinforce expectations that the central bank is nearing the end of their QE program, due to the fact that inflation will be nearing their two year inflation target. Perhaps the core uncertainty will be the committee’s forecasts on economic growth. We are expecting a decent rebound, which would additionally support the end / indefinite pause in QE. While the last couple inflation reports have been negative for the sterling, should our central belief (recovery, end of QE and rising inflation) come to fruition we believe it will be GBP positive.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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