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Late European Session
October 09, 2009 3:59 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | CAD | 0.64 |  |  | AUD | -0.04 | | | NOK | -0.17 | | | SEK | -0.33 | | | DKK | -0.35 | | | EUR | -0.39 | | | CHF | -0.50 | | | GBP | -0.88 | | | JPY | -0.93 | | | NZD | -1.01 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'148.96 | - 0.11 | | DAX Index | 5'703.50 | - 0.23 | | SMI Index | 6'295.05 | - 0.17 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'068.14 | + 0.25 | | DJIA Index | 9'816.49 | + 0.30 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9'960.00 | + 1.01 | | Hang Seng Futures | 21'559.00 | + 0.03 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'047.80 | - 0.69 | | Silver | 17.71 | - 0.45 | | VIX | 24.06 | - 0.50 | | Crude wti | 71.56 | - 0.18 | | USD Index | 76.33 | + 0.48 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9325
R 1: 0.9130
CURRENT: 0.9050
S 1: 0.8645
S 2: 0.8570
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0650
R 1: 1.0500
CURRENT: 1.0465
S 1: 1.0420
S 2: 1.0300
EURJPY
R 2: 132.10
R 1: 131.70
CURRENT: 131.60
S 1: 129.60
S 2: 129.05
USDMXN
R 2: 13.815
R 1: 13.685
CURRENT: 13.229
S 1: 13.216
S 2: 13.195
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Market Brief |
The morning started far more tentatively than in previous sessions as the DXY reclaimed some lost territory on the back of Bernanke comments overnight. Norwegian CPI posted an estimate-beating 0.8% MoM in Sep (vs. 0.5% expected, -0.2% prior), spurring EURNOK to fresh lows at 8.2938 before profit-taking pared the gains. UK PPI was also higher than anticipated in Sep, although the GBP failed to gain much support from the release as the DXY advanced above 76.30.
However, the tide turned on the USD as soon as NY traders got in; with models continuing to sell USD. USDJPY was again capped by the 89.40-50 resistance, and AUDUSD pushed back up to 0.9080, driving DXY back down to 76.00. Amidst this wave of pressure on the USD, we had the release of Canadian Unemployment which posted an unexpected fall to 8.4% against predictions for a rise to 8.8% (8.7% prior). The accompanying Net Change in Employment also smashed expectations; up 30.6K vs. 5.0K estimates. The breakdown of the figures was even more encouraging; revealing that the gains were entirely due to the full-time component (part-time employment fell) and there were strong gains in construction (+24.6k) and manufacturing (+26.1k). USDCAD quickly plunged to 1.0460, finally giving us the convincing breach of downside support that we had been waiting for, and touched a low of 1.0424 (just above the short-term trend line at 1.0420). We still look to target 1.0300, but would not go so far as to call for a move to parity given that Canadian officials have already voiced displeasure at the strength of the currency.
With US Trade Balance providing very little stimulation to the markets, the afternoon session has seen a bit of a reversal of fortunes again for currency markets; profit-takers have edged the USD back up (DXY 76.30), and gold has struggled against a headwind of supply at $1050 (currently $1047). We expect the market to trade sideways for the rest of the afternoon as markets balance the temptation to keep selling the USD with paring back risk ahead of next week’s big earnings releases.
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Dollar Recovers From Lows, But For How Long?
October 09, 2009 8:54 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| CAD | -0.05 | | | AUD | -0.17 | | | GBP | -0.34 | | | DKK | -0.35 | | | EUR | -0.36 | | | NZD | -0.40 | | | CHF | -0.42 | | | SEK | -0.47 | | | NOK | -0.56 | | | JPY | -0.86 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10'016.39 | + 1.87 | | Hang Seng Index | 21'528.69 | + 0.17 | | Shanghai Index | 2'908.37 | + 4.64 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5'154.64 | + 0.90 | | DAX Index | 5'716.54 | + 1.34 | | SMI Index | 6'305.80 | + 0.73 | | S&P future | 1'062.50 | - 0.12 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'046.97 | - 0.77 | | Silver | 17.62 | - 0.96 | | VIX | 24.18 | - 2.03 | | Crude wti | 71.14 | - 0.77 | | USD Index | 76.26 | + 0.39 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Germany: Final HICP, % m/m (y/y) Sep | -0.4(-0.4) | -0.4(-0.4) | EUR/06:00 | | Norway: CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.6 (1.0) | -0.2 (1.9) | NOK/08:00 | | UK: Trade balance, £ bn Aug | -6.3 | -6.5 | GBP/08:30 | | UK: Producer input prices, % m/m (y/y) Sep | -0.8(-6.8) | 2.2 (-7.5) | GBP/08:30 | | UK: Producer core output prices, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.2 (0.9) | 0.2 (0.7) | GBP/08:30 | | UK: Producer output prices, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.1 (-0.1) | 0.2 (-0.4) | GBP/08:30 | | Cad: Unemployment Rate, % Sep | 8.8% | 8.7% | CAD/11:00 | | Cad: Net Change In Employment, K Sep | 5.0 | 27.1 | CAD/11:00 | | US: Trade balance, $bn Aug | -33.0 | -32.0 | USD/12:30 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9325
R 1: 0.9130
CURRENT: 0.9040
S 1: 0.8645
S 2: 0.8570
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0825
R 1: 1.0650
CURRENT: 1.525
S 1: 1.0510
S 2: 1.0420
EURJPY
R 2: 132.10
R 1: 131.70
CURRENT: 131.40
S 1: 129.60
S 2: 129.05
USDMXN
R 2: 13.815
R 1: 13.685
CURRENT: 13.295
S 1: 13.260
S 2: 13.195
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Market Brief |
Yesterday the USD suffered another devastating rout after the two major risk events (BoE and ECB rate meetings) passed without surprises and offered little or no encouragement to curtail buying risky assets. The BoE left rates (at 0.5%) and the size of their Asset Purchase Target (175bn) unchanged, deferring the major decision of whether to expand stimulus measures until the November meeting – by which time the BoE’s Quarterly Inflation Report will be available. The ECB also kept rates on hold and offered an accompanying statement that was broadly in line with previous releases, albeit slightly more positive on the outlook for the labour market and growth going forward. Nevertheless, Trichet was resolute that current rates are appropriate and inflation expectations firmly anchored. Despite journalists’ best efforts in the Q&A to bait for comments on EUR strength, the responses merely re-iterated previous comments about the adverse effects of FX volatility and his appreciation for the US strong USD policy. With no explicit criticism of EURUSD levels, the pair made a push above 1.4800, dragging most other currencies higher in tandem, but after failing to hold ground above key threshold levels, the USD managed to pare back some of its losses into the US afternoon.
Gold once again hit new highs yesterday ($1061.5 the peak), but this morning seems to be spending time consolidating between intraday support at $1046 and supply coming in around $1053. Overnight most Asian stock indices rose as the outlook for the global recovery continued to entrench itself in the investor psyche. China’s Shanghai Composite is up a staggering 4% at the time of writing, and as we consider this to be a strong indicator of risk sentiment, it certainly feels like the momentum for market confidence continues to be to the upside. The DXY has managed to recover from its 75.77 lows yesterday and is looking far less sickly at current levels (76.25); but with no earnings releases expected today from the US and a barren data schedule, there seems to be very little likely to stand in the way of another day of USD selling.
German CPI data already released this morning came out at -0.5% MoM (-0.4% expected); the few remaining figures to come include Norwegian CPI, UK Trade Balance and PPI, Canadian Unemployment, and lastly US Trade Balance. With USDCAD nudging at downside support, the employment data could be a significant catalyst to push the pair down towards the next big levels at 1.0300.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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