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Late European Session
October 06, 2009 4:18 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | AUD | 1.33 |  | | | CAD | 1.09 | | | | JPY | 0.85 | | | | SEK | 0.79 | | | | NOK | 0.75 | | | | NZD | 0.67 | | | | CHF | 0.57 | | | | EUR | 0.53 | | | | DKK | 0.51 | |  | GBP | -0.08 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'124.96 | + 2.00 | | DAX Index | 5'628.80 | + 2.18 | | SMI Index | 6'265.75 | + 1.67 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'054.83 | + 1.38 | | DJIA Index | 9'712.20 | + 1.17 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9'770.00 | + 0.93 | | Hang Seng Futures | 20'828.00 | + 2.12 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'035.70 | + 1.81 | | Silver | 17.16 | + 3.13 | | VIX | 25.52 | - 4.92 | | Crude wti | 71.36 | + 1.35 | | USD Index | 76.29 | - 0.53 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8980
R 1: 0.8943
CURRENT: 0.8910
S 1: 0.8530
S 2: 0.8319
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0960
R 1: 1.0670
CURRENT: 1.0580
S 1: 1.0300
S 2: 1.0090
EURJPY
R 2. 133.89
R 1: 132.12
CURRENT: 130.65
S 1: 129.05
S 2: 127.80
USDMXN
R2: 13.845
R 1: 13.790
CURRENT: 13.522
S 1: 13.495
S 2: 13.455
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Market Brief |
Risk appetite is still surging through the markets today after this morning’s surprise rate hike in Australia. We experienced further gains in AUDUSD (currently at the highs, 0.8895) after a McCrann article published in Australia suggested a further November hike from the RBA was a done deal, and indeed it could likely be 50bp next time.
Equities across Europe and the US are performing strongly, but the real headline of the day is gold streaking to new all-time high around $1038. Prices surged through initial resistance at $1024 as the USD weakened throughout the day, and soon broke through the previous record levels from Mar 08. If this move can be sustained it points to even further upside for the precious metal; and in the meantime silver is also powering higher (currently $17.20), up over 4% on the day.
This morning saw the release of Swiss CPI (Sep) which remained flat MoM (vs. 0.1% expected); the print is likely to ensure that the SNB remain wary of deflationary risks and continue to affirm their commitment to a weak CHF. EURCHF is already back towards the 1.5100 level despite last week’s suspected intervention, and USDCHF has traded to a low of 1.0240 (currently 1.0260). The other main release from the European session was UK Industrial Production data; the Aug numbers were nothing short of dismal (-2.5% MoM vs. +0.2% expected), and Manufacturing Production equally dire (-1.9% MoM vs. +0.3% expected). GBPUSD spiked downwards after the releases from 1.6010 to 1.5940, and continued to tumble throughout the day to touch a low of 1.5877 (currently 1.5920). In contrast, most other currencies (especially commodity currencies) are exploiting the USD weakness as the DXY struggles around 76.25 levels.
Meanwhile the Canadian IVEY PMI smashed estimates (61.7 vs. 56.2 expected), and spurred USDCAD through downside support to 1.0575. A close at these levels could prompt further USDCAD selling as we target 1.0300.
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The Dollar Again Under Pressure As Australia Raise Rates
October 06, 2009 8:37 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | AUD | 1.05 | | | | NZD | 0.77 | | | | CHF | 0.72 | | | | NOK | 0.63 | | | | SEK | 0.61 | | | | DKK | 0.61 | | | | EUR | 0.60 | | | | JPY | 0.59 | | | | GBP | 0.33 | | | | CAD | 0.30 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9'691.80 | + 0.18 | | Hang Seng Index | 20'568.77 | + 0.68 | | Shanghai Index | 2'779.43 | + 0.90 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5'024.33 | + 0.71 | | DAX Index | 5'508.85 | + 0.75 | | SMI Index | 6'162.90 | + 0.21 | | S&P future | 1'036.90 | + 0.05 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'020.13 | + 0.28 | | Silver | 16.88 | + 1.44 | | VIX | 26.84 | - 6.24 | | Crude wti | 70.98 | + 0.81 | | USD Index | 76.25 | - 0.59 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Swi: CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.2 (-0.7) | 0.1 (-0.8) | CHF/07:15 | | UK: Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) Aug | 0.2 (-8.7) | 0.5 (-9.3) | GBP/08:30 | | UK: Manufacturing output, % m/m (y/y) Aug | 0.3 (-9.3) | 0.9(-10.1) | GBP/08:30 | | Cad: Building Permits, % m/m Aug | 5.0% | -11.4% | CAD/12:30 | | Cad: Ivey Purchasing Managers Index, Sep | 56.2 | 55.7 | CAD/14:00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8980
R 1: 0.8943
CURRENT: 0.8875
S 1: 0.8530
S 2: 0.8319
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0990
R 1: 1.0960
CURRENT: 1.0665
S 1: 1.0660
S 2: 1.0590
EURJPY
R 2. 133.89
R 1: 132.12
CURRENT: 131.15
S 1: 129.05
S 2: 127.80
USDMXN
R2: 13.845
R 1: 13.790
CURRENT: 13.573
S 1: 13.495
S 2: 13.455
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Market Brief |
The RBA rate meeting took centre stage this morning as the Australian central bank surprised markets by raising interest rates to 3.25% (from 3% prior); becoming the first G20 nation to officially tighten monetary policy since the onset of the financial crisis. AUDUSD surged to new 13 month highs (currently 0.8870) as the bank highlighted it was “now prudent to begin gradually lessening stimulus”, and markets have adjusted to the prospect that a series of hikes is now likely in the coming months. Most major currencies have exploited the morning’s news to gain on the USD this morning; EURUSD is trading at 1.4740, and USDCHF down below 1.0250 as investors have relished the implication that the worst is over and others will soon follow the RBA’s lead.
The currency moves have been accentuated further by USD weakness; caused by an article in the UK’s Independent newspaper overnight that Arab states may switch to using a basket of currencies for oil trading. A move to non-USD contracts would indeed signal a big risk for the USD, but the nature of the article remains speculative and it appears that for now, simply the idea that such a move is being entertained is enough to undermine USD performance.
Overnight, the outlook appears more sanguine in the equity space as Asian indices rose for the first time in 4 days. The buoyancy came after yesterday’s US ISM Non-Manufacturing for Sep, which managed to rise above the crucial 50 level (50.9 vs. 50.0 exp.); indicating an expansion. The remainder of yesterday’s data calendar produced very little action in the FX space; PMI Services data out of Europe surprised to the upside, whilst Eurozone Retail Sales for Aug posted a better than expected -0.2% reading MoM (vs. -0.5% expected, and upward revisions to July). Confusingly YoY figures indicated a worse than expected decline (-2.6% vs. -2.4% expected), but EURUSD remained largely unchanged after the releases
The main data releases from Europe today are Swiss CPI, followed by UK Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output. Meanwhile the afternoon will see the release of Canadian Building Permits and Ivey Purchasing Managers Index.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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