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Late European Session
October 05, 2009 4:26 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 0.84 |  | | | AUD | 0.83 | | | | NOK | 0.52 | | | | CAD | 0.51 | | | | DKK | 0.31 | | | | EUR | 0.29 | | | | JPY | 0.21 | | | | CHF | 0.10 | | | | GBP | -0..07 | |  | SEK | -0.06 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 4'990.79 | + 0.04 | | DAX Index | 5'488.63 | + 0.38 | | SMI Index | 6'168.22 | + 0.29 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'031.08 | + 0.57 | | DJIA Index | 9'517.07 | + 0.31 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9'710.00 | + 0.31 | | Hang Seng Futures | 20'396.00 | + 0.67 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'005.80 | + 0.30 | | Silver | 16.27 | + 0.62 | | VIX | 27.99 | - 2.41 | | Crude wti | 68.86 | - 1.56 | | USD Index | 76.90 | - 0.20 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| New Zealand: NZIER QSBO Q3 | - | -25 | NZD/22:00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8943
R 1: 0.8860
CURRENT: 0.8760
S 1: 0.8530
S 2: 0.8319
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0990
R 1: 1.0960
CURRENT: 1.0745
S 1: 1.0672
S 2: 1.0590
EURJPY
R 2. 133.89
R 1: 132.12
CURRENT: 131.00
S 1: 129.05
S 2: 127.80
USDMXN
R2: 13.845
R 1: 13.790
CURRENT: 13.665
S 1: 13.495
S 2: 13.455
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Market Brief |
Markets have traded sideways since the European open; equity markets across Europe and the US are up on the day, but commodities are mixed and the DXY has washed around between 76.80 and 77.00. This morning’s PMI services data out of the Europe surprised to the upside, whilst Eurozone Retail Sales for Aug painted a confusing picture with a better than expected -0.2% reading MoM (vs. -0.5% expected, and upward revisions to July), but YoY figures indicated a worse than expected decline (-2.6% vs. -2.4% expected). The numbers were largely ignored by FX markets; instead EURUSD has ground gradually lower (currently 1.4615) but is still marginally higher on the day after the rally in Asia. The biggest gainer today has been AUDUSD, up over 1% (currently 0.8740) as markets anticipate the RBA meeting early tomorrow morning. The consensus is still for the cash target to be kept on hold at 3% this month, but fixed income markets are pricing in an approximate 30% chance of a 25bps hike.
This afternoon the main data release has been the US ISM Non-Manufacturing for Sep; the number surprised slightly to the upside (50.9 vs. 50.0 exp.), but the data produced little effect in the FX space.
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European Session: USD Fails to Hold Gains
October 05, 2009 10:56 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | AUD | 0.83 | | | | CAD | 0.69 | | | | NOK | 0.45 | | | | GBP | 0.33 | | | | DKK | 0.24 | | | | EUR | 0.20 | | | | NZD | 0.19 | | | | CHF | 0.16 | | | SEK | -0.5 | | | JPY | -0.17 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,674.49 | - 0.58 | | Hang Seng Index | 20,387.49 | + 0.05 | | Shanghai Index | 2,779.43 | + 0.90 | | FTSE 100 Index | 9,487.67 | - 0.22 | | DAX Index | 5,468.79 | + 0.01 | | SMI Index | 6,151.63 | + 0.02 | | S&P future | 1,025.50 | + 0.37 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1,004.75 | + 0.19 | | Silver | 16.30 | + 0.83 | | VIX | 28.68 | + 1.45 | | Crude wti | 69.60 | - 0.50 | | USD Index | 76.86 | - 0.23 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Services PMI, index Sep | 54.5 | 54.1 | GBP / 08.28 | | Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Aug | -0.5,-2.0 | -0.2, -1.9 | EUR / 09.00 | | ISM non-manufacturing index Sep | 50.0 | 48.4 | USD / 14.00 | | NZIER QSBO Q3 | -- | -25 | NZD / 22.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8943
R 1: 0.8860
CURRENT: 0.8739
S 1: 0.8530
S 2: 0.8319
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0990
R 1: 1.0960
CURRENT: 1.0768
S 1: 1.0672
S 2: 1.0590
EURJPY
R 2. 133.89
R 1: 132.12
CURRENT: 131.35
S 1: 129.05
S 2: 127.80
USDMXN
R2: 13.845
R 1: 13.790
CURRENT: 13.625
S 1: 13.495
S 2: 13.455
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Market Brief |
The USD ended higher against most major currencies last weekc on risk reduction, as weak economic data prompted traders to take profits from the US equity market and sell the higher yielding assets. Consumer confidence, ADP employment, Chicago PMI, and non-farm payrolls were all worse than expected. Other factors also played a role in the dollar’s strength, as public officials from Sweden, Tokyo, and Gothenburg all called for a strong US currency, which is essential to the global economy, taking into consideration a weak dollar could hurt economies outside the US by making their exports more expensive. Interestingly, despite the general move lower in equities, crude oil rebounded last week.
Over the weekend the much hyped G7 made little impression on the FX markets (perhaps because of its declining relevance to G20). The official communiqué made no mention of the USD depreciation, although the greenback has suffered considerable and broad-based fall since the last meeting (especially against the EUR and JPY). Preceding the G7 meeting in Istanbul, Finance Minster Fujii said in reference to the yen that ''we will take appropriate steps if one-sided moves become excessive'', which doesn’t sound like the MoF is committed to intervening at these levels. And without official appetite, the USDJPY downside looks clear.
There are also a few central bank meetings in G10 space with the ECB, BOE and RBA meetings this week which should provide some activitly.Tomorrow the RBA is likely to rates on hold at 3.00%, though given last week's hawkish commentary from Governor Stevens, stronger retail sales and article in an Australian newspaper have increased the probability to close to 45%.
Later today we get ISM non-manufacturing, which we expect the composite index will jump to the 50 level, that separates contraction from expansion. On a side note, Q3 earning season will begin on Wednesday and could quickly temper risk appetite.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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