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Late European Session
October 02, 2009 4:06 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 1.00 |  | | | CHF | 0.65 | | | | DKK | 0.41 | | | | EUR | 0.42 | | | | NOK | 0.35 | | | | SEK | 0.32 | | | | NZD | 0.21 | | | | CAD | 0.05 | |  | GBP | -0.24 | | | AUD | -0.39 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 4'979.61 | - 1.35 | | DAX Index | 5'462.72 | - 1.65 | | SMI Index | 6'126.33 | - 2.06 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'023.64 | - 0.60 | | DJIA Index | 9'452.98 | - 0.59 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9'680.00 | - 0.51 | | Hang Seng Futures | 20'261 | - 3.03 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'004.58 | + 0.54 | | Silver | 16.30 | - 0.31 | | VIX | 29.07 | + 2.83 | | Crude wti | 69.44 | - 1.95 | | USD Index | 76.94 | - 0.33 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8940
R 1: 0.8860
CURRENT: 0.8665
S 1: 0.8570
S 2: 0.8465
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1100
R 1: 1.0990
CURRENT: 1.0840
S 1: 1.0660
S 2: 1.0590
EURJPY
R 2: 133.85
R 1: 132.10
CURRENT: 129.50
S 1: 127.00
S 2: 124.40
USDMXN
R 2: 13.845
R 1: 13.791
CURRENT: 13.700
S 1: 13.620
S 2: 13.454
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Market Brief |
Non Farm Payrolls dropped heavily in Sep (-263K M/M vs. -175K expected, -216K previous), sending equity markets plunging lower and commodities down across the board. The effect on risky assets had certainly been anticipated, however more surprising was the resilience of the EUR in the face risk appetite gone sour. EURUSD tried to puncture support through 1.4500, touching a low of 1.4481 before squeezing sharply to a high of 1.4618. The DXY echoed this move, spiking to 77.47 on the release before plunging to 76.94; it definitely feels as though the “risk aversion = USD higher” relationship is breaking down based on this reaction.
Unsurprisingly, US equities opened lower, but managed to pare some of their losses despite US Factory Orders also missing forecasts (-0.8% in Aug vs. 0.0% expected). The DXY has continued to plunge (76.77 the low so far) as the realisation dawns that the USD is certainly not getting any support from bad news any longer.
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Uncertain Times Ahead As Markets Eye CIT Group
October 02, 2009 8:36 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | CAD | 0.12 | | | | NOK | 0.12 | | | | EUR | 0.11 | | | | JPY | 0.11 | | | | DKK | 0.10 | | | | CHF | 0.08 | | | | AUD | 0.07 | | | | SEK | 0.04 | | | NZD | -0.06 | | | GBP | -0.14 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9'731.87 | - 2.47 | | Hang Seng Index | 20'469.29 | - 2.32 | | Shanghai Index | 2'779.43 | + 0.90 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5'047.81 | - 1.68 | | DAX Index | 5'554.55 | - 2.13 | | SMI Index | 6'255.17 | - 1.08 | | S&P future | 1'024.60 | - 0.27 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'000.40 | + 0.12 | | Silver | 16.35 | - 0.03 | | VIX | 28.27 | + 10.39 | | Crude wti | 70.18 | - 0.90 | | USD Index | 77.11 | - 0.10 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Norway PMI SA, Sep | 47.0 | 42.3 | NOK/07:00 | | UK: Construction PMI, index Sep | 48.1 | 47.7 | GBP/08:28 | | UK: BoE housing equity withdrawal, £ bn Q2 | - | -8.1 | GBP/08:30 | | E16 : PPI, % m/m (y/y) Aug | 0.4 (-7.5) | -0.8(-8.5) | EUR/09:00 | | US: Change in nonfarm payrolls, thous Sep | -189 | -216 | USD/12:30 | | US: Unemployment rate, % Sep | 9.8 | 9.7 | USD/12:30 | | US: Avg hourly earnings, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.2 (2.6) | 0.3 (2.6) | USD/12:30 | | US: Average weekly hours Sep | 33.1 | 33.1 | USD/12:30 | | US: Factory orders, % m/m Aug | 1.1(-18.9) | 1.3(-23.2) | USD/14:00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8940
R 1: 0.8860
CURRENT: 0.8705
S 1: 0.8675
S 2: 0.8585
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1100
R 1: 1.0990
CURRENT: 1.0840
S 1: 1.0660
S 2: 1.0590
EURJPY
R 2: 133.85
R 1: 132.10
CURRENT: 130.30
S 1: 129.60
S 2: 129.35
USDMXN
R 2: 13.845
R 1: 13.791
CURRENT: 13.765
S 1: 13.620
S 2: 13.454
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Market Brief |
Eurozone Unemployment in Aug was 9.6%; exactly on consensus estimates and modestly higher than the month prior (9.5%). National PMI figures across Europe were slightly better than expected (Eurozone composite PMI 49.3 vs. 49.0 exp.) but the EUR failed to benefit from the news, as markets were instead focussed on comments from EU’s Almunia; that the Eurozone’s finance ministers were to discuss EUR strength ahead of the forthcoming G7.
Meanwhile, Norwegian Data was the starlet of the morning session as the Unemployment Rate for Sep dropped to 2.7% (2.9% exp, 3.0% prior), further confirmation of the superior state of the Norwegian economy versus its major peers. EURNOK touched its lowest levels in 11 months (8.4179), but profit-taking on the last 2 days’ moves eroded gains, and later the drop in oil and energy prices dragged on all commodity currencies. The slump was prompted by inventory data that showed natural gas stockpiles have now reached all-time highs; resulting in front contract down over 7.5% on the day.
During the afternoon, jobs data were mixed; with initial claims topping estimates at 551K (535K consensus), but continuing claims shrinking to 6090K (6170K expected, 6138K previous). It was also notable that the improvement in Personal Spending in Aug was the biggest since October 2001, nevertheless, US equities traded very heavy from the open and the poor performance was exacerbated after the long-awaited ISM report came out at 52.6 (54.0 expected, 52.9 prior).
Late in the evening, troubled CIT Group Inc (one of the US’s largest lenders to small and mid-size businesses) said it would seek to restructure its debt, but added it may file for bankruptcy protection. This sent Treasury yields plummeting, and ensured Asian equity markets traded much lower; the Nikkei closed down around 2.5% despite better than expected jobless rate and household spending numbers in Japan. Although today’s Non Farm Payrolls have long been billed as the main risk event of the week, the potential collapse of CIT will no doubt weigh on markets, and if realised, would be devastating for an economy still shedding over 100,000 jobs a month. Corporate earnings season begins next week and markets will be watching the headlines for direction of risk appetite from here. However, with the standard set so high last quarter, there remains significant risk of disappointment.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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