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US Session: USD Suffers As Equity Markets Rally
October 19, 2009 6:21 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 1.66 |  | | | AUD | 1.23 | | | | NOK | 0.79 | | | | CAD | 0.58 | | | | CHF | 0.50 | | | | SEK | 0.33 | | | | DKK | 0.30 | | | | EUR | 0.26 | | | | GBP | 0.24 | | | | JPY | 0.15 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'281.54 | + 1.76 | | DAX Index | 5'852.56 | + 1.90 | | SMI Index | 6'436.37 | + 1.44 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'098.42 | + 0.99 | | DJIA Index | 10'102.77 | + 1.07 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10'320.00 | + 0.49 | | Hang Seng Futures | 22'139.00 | + 0.62 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'057.30 | + 0.35 | | Silver | 17.57 | + 0.57 | | VIX | 21.10 | - 1.54 | | Crude wti | 78.96 | + 0.55 | | USD Index | 75.32 | - 0.37 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| NAHB housing index Oct | 20 | 19 | USD/17:00 | | Tue 20 Oct | - | - | - | | Australia: RBA Board minutes | - | - | AUD/00:30 | | Germany: PPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep | -0.1(-7.1) | 0.5 (-6.9) | EUR/06:00 | | PSNB/PSNCR, £ bn Sep | 15.5 | 16.1 | GBP/08:30 | | M4 Money Supply, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.5 (11.4) | 0.1 (12.5) | GBP/08:30 | | Construction output, % m/m Aug | - | -2.0 | EUR/09:00 | | Housing starts, thous Sep | 607 | 598 | USD/12:30 | | Building permits, thous Sep | 590 | 580 | USD/12:30 | | PPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.1 (-4.3) | 1.7 (-4.3) | USD/12:30 | | Core PPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.1 (2.0) | 0.2 (2.3) | USD/12:30 | | Wholesale Sales, % m/m Aug | -0.5 | 2.8 | CAD/12:30 | | Leading Indicators, % m/m Sep | 0.9 | 1.1 | CAD/12:30 | | BoC policy interest rate annoucement | 0.25 | 0.25 | CAD/13:00 |
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Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.5000
R 1: 1.4967
CURRENT: 1.4955
S 1: 1.4876
S 2: 1.4842
GBPUSD
R 2: 1. 6570
R 1: 1.6468
CURRENT: 1.6405
S 1: 1.6200
S 2: 1.6150
USDJPY
R 2: 92.50
R 1: 91.80
CURRENT: 90.70
S 1: 89.70
S 2: 88.59
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9475
R 1: 0.9345
CURRENT: 0.9270
S 1: 0.8985
S 2: 0.8865
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0650
R 1: 1.0450
CURRENT: 1.0305
S 1: 1.0290
S 2: 1.0210
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Market Brief |
It’s been an extremely quiet day in terms of news and releases, so equity markets and positioning have been the major determinants of flows. In early trading the USD was under pressure from buoyant equity markets across Asia and Europe, but GBPUSD was the notable exception as GBP sold off aggressively across the board (GBPUSD to lows of 1.6241, EURGBP to highs of 0.9190). The move appeared to be caused by the dovish Sunday Times article with BoE’s Posen gaining some traction as European desks opened, but the continued strength of equity markets throughout the day and into the US open soon led to a reversal in this move, squeezing out many of the short positions put on in the morning. GBPUSD hit a high of 1.6424, and EURGBP pared back to 0.9115.
The almost universal gains across equity markets has ensured all the majors are also higher on the day; EURUSD is currently 1.4955, and USDCHF inching ever closer towards parity at 1.0125. The spate of USD weakness has fuelled commodities higher on the day, gold is pushing the day’s highs at $1057 and silver is back above $17.50. With the majority of earnings releases today not due until after market, there seems little obvious source of a catalyst to change the current moves.
Looking forward to tomorrow, we start with the RBA Minutes of the most recent meeting; no doubt likely to be a hawkish statement given the surprise 25bps hike. German PPI, UK Money Supply data and Eurozone Construction Output form the major releases in the morning session, whilst in the afternoon we can expect BoC Rate Decision (expecting on-hold decision at 0.25%), US Housing Starts, Building Permits and PPI.
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European Session: Shift in Japans Rhetoric
October 19, 2009 10:07 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 0.99 | | | | AUD | 0.28 | | | | NOK | 0.17 | | | | JPY | 0.13 | | | | SEK | 0.06 | | | | EUR | 0.02 | | | | CHF | 0.01 | | | | DKK | 0.01 | |  | CAD | -0.16 | | | GBP | -0.28 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10,236.51 | - 0.20 | | Hang Seng Index | 22,015.60 | + 0.39 | | Shanghai Index | 3,033.84 | + 1.92 | | FTSE futures | 5,177.00 | - 0.53 | | DAX futures | 5,774.00 | + 0.20 | | SMI Futures | 6,358.00 | + 0.09 | | S&P future | 1,083.80 | + 0.16 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1,052.65 | - 0.09 | | Silver | 17.43 | - 0.21 | | VIX | 21.43 | - 1.33 | | Crude wti | 78.55 | + 0.02 | | USD Index | 75.66 | + 0.08 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on economy at SF | -- | -- | USD / 15.00 | | NAHB housing index | 20 | 19 | USD / 17.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9475
R 1: 0.9345
CURRENT: 0.9187
S 1: 0.8985
S 2: 0.8865
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0650
R 1: 1.0450
CURRENT: 1.0387
S 1: 1.0290
S 2: 1.0210
EURJPY
R 2: 137.85
R 1: 136.10
CURRENT: 135.22
S 1: 133.35
S 2: 132.25
USDMXN
R 2: 13.385
R 1: 13.330
CURRENT: 13.0841
S 1: 12.980
S 2. 12.765
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Market Brief |
Markets remain in a bullish mode, despite the pause on Friday of risky asset accumulation. In the Asian session, the EURUSD traded in the range of 1.4840-1.4920 and the USDJPY traded higher, in the range of 90.75-91.15. Last weekÕs Q3 earnings were broadly ahead of expectations, giving plenty of support to risk takers. The biggest gainer was the sterling, as traders paired down bets that the BoE would extend their quantitative easing program in November, on the back of comments by MPC member Fisher. However, this weekend in an article in the UK 's Sunday Times, MPC member Posen signalled that he had an inclination towards voting for an extension to the QE program. In regards to his decision making process, he states: "It goes back to how much you think there is real overshooting and inflation risk, and how much you think the financial system has recovered. And then goes on to say "My answer to the first is that I'm not worried about overshooting inflation right now. His lack of concern over inflation suggests that he is in the extension camp. With much of last weeks sterling gain based on unwinding of QE thinking and pressure on short, we would expect of QE to come back in to the markets psyche, expecting the GBP to come under renewed selling pressure. From Japan there has been a shift in MoF rhetoric in recent days, and on Friday Senior Advisor Gyohten, commenting that Japan, China and the US should cooperate to stabilise the USD. Perhaps the strongest signal so far that Japanese officals are moving back to the weak JPY policy.
TodayÕs light economic calendar will keep markets range bound. Today, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak and markets will be keen on any mention of exist strategies, given last weekÕs earning and the divergence seen in FOMC minutes. The other big near term event will be the RBAÕs October minutes released tomorrow. The market is pricing in about a 25% chance of a 50bp rate hike in November and we believe that this pricing could become considerably more aggressive by the next meeting. Evidently, re-pricing of the RBA monetary policy path will equate to a stronger AUD.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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