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US Late Session
October 16, 2009 5:58 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | GBP | 0.61 |  |  | JPY | -0.15 | | | DKK | -0.20 | | | EUR | -0.21 | | | AUD | -0.25 | | | CHF | -0.34 | | | SEK | -0.41 | | | NZD | -0.51 | | | CAD | -0.55 | | | NOK | -1.00 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10,257.56 | + 0.18 | | Shanghai Index | 2,976.63 | - 0.10 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,199.97 | - 0.43 | | DAX Index | 5,756.34 | - 1.23 | | DJIA Index | 9,957.37 | - 1.04 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,083.93 | - 1.15 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 2,144.58 | - 1.32 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1,054.60 | + 0.41 | | Silver | 17.49 | + 0.17 | | VIX | 22.37 | + 2.99 | | Crude wti | 77.41 | - 0.21 | | USD Index | 75.61 | + 0.17 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9475
R 1: 0.9345
CURRENT: 0.9166
S 1: 0.9125
S 2: 0.8985
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0400
R 1: 1.0360
CURRENT: 1.0382
S 1: 1.0127
S 2: 1.0055
EURJPY
R 2: 136.90
R 1: 136.10
CURRENT: 135.19
S 1: 132.50
S 2: 131.60
USDMXN
R 2: 13.330
R 1: 13.184
CURRENT: 13.1195
S 1: 12.980
S 2: 12.750
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Market Brief |
The USD has had a tentative recovery in today’s session as headline earnings failed to cloak mediocre revenue and profit details at GE and Bank of America. GE modestly beat estimates with an EPS of 22c vs. 20c expected, but profits fell 45% in the third quarter and revenues were down 20%. BoA (the biggest US lender) posted a loss of 26c per share on defaults and credit write-downs, causing the DXY to rally all the way to 75.90 before paring back later in the afternoon on positive US data.
The first major data release of the day was Swiss Retail Sales which posted a disappointing -1.0% print YoY for Aug, dramatically lower than estimates for +0.8%. USDCHF has since retested 1.0220 resistance but failed to break above and was met with decent supply weighing it back down to 1.0190 currently. For most of the European morning most currency pairs were trading sideways in a tight range against the USD, that is until Canadian CPI for September broke the deadlock by posting its second consecutive month of zero inflation (vs. 0.1% expected). USDCAD gapped higher to 1.0400 but, like USDCHF failed to overcome its big resistance level at 1.0420. The surge in the USD was infectious and we saw stops taken out in both EURUSD and AUDUSD on the downside, touching lows of 1.4849 and 0.9124 respectively. Key supports have since held very well though, and after impressive US Industrial Production (0.7% MoM vs. 0.2% expected) the USD has retreated modestly but is still higher on the day (DXY currently 75.65).
Highlights for Monday will include Minutes from the BoJ and RBA’s most recent Rate Meetings (expect the RBA minutes to be hawkish given the surprise hike), German Producer Prices and UK Money Supply Data. The US Session’s main event will be the BoC Rate Meeting but will also feature US PPI, Housing Starts and Building Permits.
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More Hawkish Rhetoric From RBA Boosts Australian Dollar
October 16, 2009 8:49 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | GBP | 0.20 | | | AUD | -0.09 | | | CAD | -0.13 | | | NZD | -0.30 | | | EUR | -0.33 | | | CHF | -0.36 | | | DKK | -0.37 | | | JPY | -0.38 | | | NOK | -0.72 | | | SEK | -1.11 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10'257.56 | + 0.18 | | Hang Seng Index | 22'025.71 | + 0.12 | | Shanghai Index | 2'950.10 | - 1.00 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5'222.95 | - 0.63 | | DAX Index | 5'830.77 | - 0.40 | | SMI Index | 6'383.19 | - 0.35 | | S&P future | 1'091.40 | + 0.15 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'047.91 | - 0.22 | | Silver | 17.29 | - 0.40 | | VIX | 21.72 | - 4.99 | | Crude wti | 77.87 | + 0.37 | | USD Index | 75.55 | + 0.09 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Adjusted real retail sales, % y/y Aug | 0.8 | 1.0 | CHF/07:15 | | Trade balance, € bn (sa) Aug | 4.9 | 6.8 | EUR/09:00 | | Consumer Price Index, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.1 (-0.9) | 0.0 (-0.8) | CAD/11:00 | | Net long-term TIC flows, $ bn Aug | 30.0 | 15.3 | USD/13:00 | | Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.2(-7.0) | 0.8(-10.3) | USD/13:15 | | Capacity utilization, % Sep | 69.8 | 69.6 | USD/13:15 | | University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Oct | 73.3 | 73.5 | USD/13:55 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9475
R 1: 0.9345
CURRENT: 0.9190
S 1: 0.9125
S 2: 0.8985
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0400
R 1: 1.0360
CURRENT: 1.0350
S 1: 1.0127
S 2: 1.0055
EURJPY
R 2: 136.90
R 1: 136.10
CURRENT: 135.50
S 1: 132.50
S 2: 131.60
USDMXN
R 2: 13.330
R 1: 13.184
CURRENT: 13.095
S 1: 12.980
S 2: 12.750
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Market Brief |
GBP has continued to outperform this morning (GBPUSD 1.6355, EURGBP 0.9125) on a combination of chatter regarding M&A activity and rumours that the BoE will not be increasing QE in November. GBP-crosses have looked oversold for some time now, and this correction has brought us within reach of some key technical levels; the high so far in GBPUSD has been 1.6400, a break of 1.6468 opens up next target above 1.6700, meanwhile EURGBP’s pivotal support lies at 0.9070.
The Asian session was light in terms of significant data releases, however AUD was given a boost by hawkish rhetoric from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens that they cannot be “too timid” in raising rates; AUDUSD traded to a high of 0.9720 on the news, and after breaking up out of its rising wedge in the past few days and managing to hold above the upper trend line on the re-test, price action looks extremely bullish.
This morning’s data highlights will be Swiss Retail Sales, expected to increase 0.8% YoY in Aug (from 1.0% last month); a strong number is likely to increase the likelihood that we see USDCHF march onward towards parity (currently 1.0160), however EURCHF has so far remained wary of retesting intervention territory below 1.5130 and we expect the market to continue to respect this boundary given the conviction with which the SNB has defended it in the past few months.
Canadian CPI (Sep) is also due out today (exp. 0.1% MoM, 0.0% prior); contrary to the theme across other major pairs, USDCAD rallied yesterday and is marginally higher again today (currently 1.0340). We believe that positioning in this trade is now becoming a drag on further gains for CAD, and considering the comments from the BoC about their discomfort with the strength of the currency, this may indicate we have reached a bottom for the near-term and a further correction higher is due. The US session also sees the release of Net TIC Flows, Industrial Production and U. Mich Consumer Confidence, while the earnings focus turns to General Electric, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, and troubled financial firm CIT Group Inc.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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