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US Session: Sterling Shines Amongst Majors As Gold Fails To Dazzle
October 15, 2009 5:56 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | GBP | 1.74 |  | | | NZD | 0.68 | | | | AUD | 0.49 | | | | CHF | 0.17 | | | | DKK | 0.15 | | | | EUR | 0.13 | |  | SEK | -0.17 | | | NOK | -0.28 | | | CAD | -0.58 | | | JPY | -1.09 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'237.22 | - 0.36 | | DAX Index | 5'834.38 | - 0.34 | | SMI Index | 6'371.31 | - 0.54 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'087.86 | - 0.38 | | DJIA Index | 9'986.16 | - 0.30 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10'260.00 | + 1.79 | | Hang Seng Futures | 22'003.00 | + 0.43 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'057.60 | - 0.45 | | Silver | 17.67 | - 1.17 | | VIX | 22.60 | - 1.14 | | Crude wti | 75.70 | + 0.69 | | USD Index | 75.40 | - 0.20 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Rightmove House Prices, % m/m (y/y) Oct | - (-) | 0.6 (-1.5) | GBP/23:01 | | Friday 16 Oct | - | - | - | | Adjusted real retail sales, % y/y Aug | 0.8 | 1.0 | CHF/07:15 | | Trade balance, € bn (sa) Aug | 4.9 | 6.8 | EUR/09:00 | | Consumer Price Index, % m/m (y/) Sep | 0.1 (-0.9) | 0.0 (-0.8) | CAD/11:00 | | Bank of Canada core CPI, % y/y Sep | 0.2 (1.4) | 0.1 (1.6) | CAD/11:00 | | Net long-term TIC flows, $ bn Aug | 30.0 | 15.3 | USD/13:00 | | Industrial Production, % m/m Sep | 0.2 | 0.8 | USD/13:15 | | Capacity Utilization, % Sep | 69.8 | 69.6 | USD/13:15 | | U. of Michigan Confidence, index Oct | 73.1 | 73.5 | USD/14:00 |
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Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.5340
R 1: 1.5000
CURRENT: 1.4950
S 1: 1.4876
S 2: 1.4820
GBPUSD
R 2: 1. 6330
R 1: 1.6299
CURRENT: 1.6250
S 1: 1.6200
S 2: 1.6150
USDJPY
R 2: 91.60
R 1: 90.50
CURRENT: 90.40
S 1: 89.30
S 2: 88.00
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9475
R 1: 0.9345
CURRENT: 0.9200
S 1: 0.9125
S 2: 0.8985
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0400
R 1: 1.0360
CURRENT: 1.0290
S 1: 1.0127
S 2: 1.0055
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Market Brief |
After the big moves overnight which saw the USD pushed to its lowest levels in 14 months; it has been a very choppy day’s trading for the majors. The biggest gains today have been GBP and GBP-crosses which have been threatening key technical levels throughout the day; GBPUSD touched a high of 1.6299, EURGBP dipped to 0.9143, and GBPJPY hit a peak of 147.52 – up nearly 5 big figures from its lows. The rumours circulating to explain the moves have included some large EURGBP transactions relating to the purchase of Sainsbury’s shares, but it seems that the scale of the move is also symptomatic short-term players who have faded the GBPUSD rally being squeezed out. The sheer size of shorts in GBPUSD is not to be underestimated and as GBP-crosses have looked oversold for some time, it is unsurprising it has experienced the most acute snap-back.
The data calendar today has been largely focussed on inflation, with both the Eurozone and US publishing September data. Neither figure gave much impetus to FX markets as Eurozone CPI was flat on the month (vs. 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior), and US figures were bang on estimates at 0.2% MoM. The highlight of the earnings schedule today was Goldman Sachs who trumped yesterday’s JPMorgan figures with an EPS of $5.25 against consensus estimates of $4.18. Perhaps surprisingly, EURUSD sold off sharply on the release, possibly as markets had priced in an even bigger surprise given the prior day’s release. The move lower was exacerbated by stops through the 1.4875 level that sent the pair skidding to 1.4843, but since cleaning the board of stops EURUSD has rebounded strongly back towards the highs at 1.4950.
In other releases, claims data were mixed (slightly better figures this week but downward revision to last), and Empire Manufacturing much better than expected (34.57 vs. 17.25 expected, 18.88 last); but despite the risk events, equity market reactions have remained muted and given little fuel to FX moves in either direction. The most notable non-mover today has been gold, which has failed to capitalize on USD weakness, and is down on the day at $1057. The metal had dropped to a low of $1046.82 earlier in the session, and perhaps signals a deterioration in the correlation between gold and USD weakness going forward.
Tomorrow’s main data releases include Swiss Retail Sales, Eurozone Trade Balance, Canadian CPI, and US Industrial Production.
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European Session: Dow Jones Above 10,000 Spells Doom For The Dollar
October 15, 2009 8:30 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 1.12 | | | | AUD | 0.75 | | | | GBP | 0.69 | | | | SEK | 0.36 | | | | CAD | 0.31 | | | | NOK | 0.28 | | | | CHF | 0.22 | | | | EUR | 0.19 | | | | DKK | 0.18 | | | | JPY | 0.02 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10'238.65 | + 1.77 | | Hang Seng Index | 22'081.50 | + 0.89 | | Shanghai Index | 2'991.83 | + 0.72 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5'256.10 | + 1.98 | | DAX Index | 5'854.14 | + 2.45 | | SMI Index | 6'405.92 | + 1.34 | | S&P future | 1'088.30 | + 0.06 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'064.83 | + 0.23 | | Silver | 17.95 | + 0.36 | | VIX | 22.86 | - 0.57 | | Crude wti | 75.84 | + 0.88 | | USD Index | 75.24 | - 0.41 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| HICP, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.1 (-0.3) | -0.3(-0.3) | EUR/09:00 | | ZEW Survey (Expectations) Oct | 59.0 | 58.0 | CHF/09:00 | | Consumer Price Index, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.2 (-1.4) | 0.4 (-1.5) | USD/12:30 | | Empire State manufacturing index Oct | 18.00 | 18.88 | USD/12:30 | | Initial jobless claims, thous (4wk mvg avg) 10 Oct | 525 (534) | 521 (540) | USD/12:30 | | Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index Oct | 12.0 | 14.1 | USD/14:00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9475
R 1: 0.9345
CURRENT: 0.9220
S 1: 0.9125
S 2: 0.8985
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0400
R 1: 1.0320
CURRENT: 1.0215
S 1: 1.0127
S 2: 1.0055
EURJPY
R 2: 134.21
R 1: 133.88
CURRENT: 133.70
S 1: 132.50
S 2: 131.60
USDMXN
R 2: 13.330
R 1: 13.184
CURRENT: 13.048
S 1: 12.980
S 2: 12.750
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Market Brief |
Yesterday morning the USD seemed poised for another brutal session of weakness as the DXY and most major currency pairs looked to have penetrated major technical levels, leaving very little barriers left to restrain the risk appetite trade. However despite JPMorgan reporting an estimate-busting EPS of 82c (consensus 51c) and global stock indices almost universally higher on the day, the DXY has managed to hold within a tight channel between 75.44-75.69 for most of the day. The first major item on the morning data schedule was UK ILO Unemployment Rate for Aug which surprisingly held firm at 7.9% vs. expectations of a rise to 8.0%. This prompted GBPUSD to rally strongly from 1.5945 towards the key resistance at 1.6040 (managing to touch a high of 1.6025), and pushed EURGBP back towards 0.9300 support. Next up we had Eurozone Industrial Production for Aug which was broadly neutral in its implications; the 0.9% gain MoM missed forecasts for a 1.2% rise, but there were compensating revisions to the month prior (0.2% from -0.3%).
The major afternoon release on the docket was US Retail Sales (Sep) which beat forecasts with a print of -1.5% MoM vs. -2.1% expected. The surprise was not as persuasive as first impressions might suggest, as last month’s cash-for-clunkers augmented figure of 2.7% in Aug was revised down to 2.2%. The FOMC followed later in the session, and as expected the committee revised up their forecasts for growth; however they also reiterated that rates would stay low for a long time and there was were mixed views about how the QE programme should be directed going forward; with one member looking for it to be increased and another looking for it to be scaled back. The sanguine view on the economic outlook coupled with the reassurance of low rates spurred the Dow Jones above the 10,000 mark to close at 10,015, and finally pushed the USD over the edge. EURUSD has since hit highs of 1.4967, AUDUSD looks to have broken upwards from its rising wedge to 0.9225, and USDCHF continues its march towards parity (1.0120 currently).
Gold is the notable laggard in this latest push, having re-tested highs at $1070 before paring back to $1065. Crude has continued to look firm just below $76, and Asian indices are also stronger on the day. Highlights in the coming sessions include Eurozone CPI and Swiss ZEW, before a raft of US figures in the afternoon including CPI, Empire State Manufacturing and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. The big earnings releases for the day include Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Safeway.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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