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US Session
October 12, 2009 5:55 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | CAD | 0.83 |  | | | CHF | 0.58 | | | | DKK | 0.40 | | | | EUR | 0.39 | | | | SEK | 0.30 | | | | AUD | 0.25 | | | | NOK | 0.00 | |  | NZD | -0.03 | | | JPY | -0.29 | | | GBP | -0.36 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'215.09 | + 1.03 | | DAX Index | 5'789.17 | + 1.35 | | SMI Index | 6'389.32 | + 1.55 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'078.12 | + 0.62 | | DJIA Index | 9'909.83 | + 0.46 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9'960.00 | - 0.50 | | Hang Seng Futures | 21'415.00 | - 0.67 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'055.33 | + 0.58 | | Silver | 17.78 | + 0.37 | | VIX | 22.85 | - 1.17 | | Crude wti | 73.26 | + 2.08 | | USD Index | 76.07 | - 0.37 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| NZ: Retail Sales, % m/m Aug | 0.5% | -0.5% | NZD/21:45 | | Tuesday 13 October Releases: | - | - | -/- | | JP: Money stock (M2/M3), % y/y Sep | 2.9/2.1 | 2.8/2.0 | JPY/00:50 | | JP: Bank lending (Bank and shinkin banks), % y/y | 1.8 | 1.8 | JPY/00:50 | | Sweden: CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.4 (-1.4) | 0.2 (-0.8) | SEK/07:30 | | UK: CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.2 (1.3) | 0.4 (1.6) | GBP/08:30 | | UK: RPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.3 (-1.5) | 0.5 (-1.3) | GBP/08:30 | | UK: RPIX, % m/m (y/y) Sep | 0.4 (1.2) | 0.5 (1.4) | GBP/08:30 | | Germany: ZEW economic expectations index Oct | 58.0 | 57.7 | EUR/09:00 | | US: Budget balance, $ bn (possibly delayed) Sep | -78.0 | 45.7 ('08) | USD/14:00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9345
R 1: 0.9130
CURRENT: 0.9060
S 1: 0.8865
S 2: 0.8760
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0560
R 1: 1.0430
CURRENT: 1.0335
S 1: 1.0295
S 2: 1.0125
EURJPY
R 2: 134.20
R 1: 133.86
CURRENT: 132.75
S 1: 130.70
S 2: 129.60
USDMXN
R 2: 13.535
R 1: 13.385
CURRENT: 13.221
S 1: 13.183
S 2: 13.140
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Market Brief |
The USD has spent most of the day under pressure after initially spending the European morning recovering some ground against the majors. The DXY opened at 76.35 and climbed to a high of 76.66 as some investors took profit on USD shorts; but as European equities continued to look resilient, and US indices opened higher, the USD suffered another round of risk-appetite driven selling which saw it grind back down to 76.03.
Improved sentiment and USD weakness late in the European session has ensured commodity markets are broadly higher; gold is comfortably back above the pivotal $1050 level at $1056 (high $1059), silver up at $17.80, and crude higher over 2% on the day at $73.50.
Liquidity has been slightly thinner due to the Columbus day holiday in the US, and the data calendar sparse; the only notable release being Swedish AMV Unemployment Rate which showed an unexpected improvement to 5.3% in Sep (5.4% previous, 5.4% expected). This echoes the recent surprise improvements in labour market figures from Norway, Canada and Australia, and prompted USDSEK to sell-off to a low of 6.9527 (currently 6.9700) – though some of this move is no doubt due to broader USD weakness as well as SEK strength.
We can look forward to a more exciting schedule of releases in the day ahead; starting with NZ Retail Sales at 21:45 GMT this evening. Consensus estimates are for a 0.5% gain in Aug, but considering its major peers including Australia (0.9% vs. 0.5% exp.), US (2.7% vs. 1.9% exp.) and Eurozone (-0.2% vs. -0.5% exp.) have all convincingly beaten estimates in August, the risks appear to be tilted to the upside in our view. We also have CPI data from Sweden and the UK in tomorrow’s European session as well as a resumption of notable earnings releases in the US; the most important of the day being Intel Corp. Thus far it seems that earnings on both sides of the Atlantic have beaten analyst estimates, and as the perceived ‘risk’ of this earnings season passes with every day, the threat of more USD selling only increases.
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European Session: US Bank Earnings Holds USDs Fate
October 12, 2009 10:23 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | CAD | 0.01 | | | NOK | -0.10 | | | EUR | -0.12 | | | DKK | -0.15 | | | CHF | -0.24 | | | SEK | -0.35 | | | AUD | -0.41 | | | NZD | -0.71 | | | GBP | -0.72 | | | JPY | -0.78 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10,016.39 | + 1.87 | | Hang Seng Index | 21,479.37 | - 0.09 | | Shanghai Index | 2,916.32 | + 0.15 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,161.87 | + 0.14 | | DAX Index | 5,711.88 | - 0.08 | | SMI Index | 6,291.64 | - 0.22 | | S&P future | 1,069.10 | + 0.09 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1,049.85 | + 0.05 | | Silver | 17.84 | + 0.70 | | VIX | 23.12 | - 4.38 | | Crude wti | 72.49 | + 1.00 | | USD Index | 76.43 | + 0.09 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Industrial production, %y/yAug | -5.8 | -6.5 | MXN / 20.30 | | RICS housing market survey, price balanceSep | 15.0 | 10.7 | GBP / 23.01 | | BCC quarterly economic surveyQ3 | -- | -- | GBP / 23.01 | | BRC retail sales monitor, total sales, % y/ySep | -- | 2.2 | GBP / 23.01 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9345
R 1: 0.9130
CURRENT: 0.9027
S 1: 0.8865
S 2: 0.8760
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0827
R 1: 1.0650
CURRENT: 1.0428
S 1: 1.0295
S 2: 1.0125
EURJPY
R 2: 134.20
R 1: 133.86
CURRENT: 132.66
S 1: 130.70
S 2: 129.60
USDMXN
R 2: 13.535
R 1: 13.385
CURRENT: 13.26
S 1: 13.213
S 2: 13.261
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Market Brief |
The USD was able to claw back some losses in the Asian session, as regional equity markets failed to keep risk appetite afloat. Last week’s USD selloff stems from the belief that the need for safe haven assets has declined, causing participants to search for risk premium. This week, risk appetite will be left in the hands of US bank earnings (JPMorgan, Citibank, GS and BofA) and rhetoric from central banks officials. Market will be intensely listening for any signal that officials are looking to reigning risk correlated trades and limit USD selling. Comments from the Fed continued uninterrupted over the weekend. Former Vice-Chairman Kohn held his normal hawkish note, and highlighted the importance of anchoring inflation expectations, while he rejected the theory that central banks should stay accommodating longer when emerging from a recession.
In Singapore, the MAS announced that it would maintain its current neutral policy stance and zero-appreciation path. There will be no shift in the width of the policy band and current center. Officials stated that the MAS will continue to watch over macro developments, including the risk of stronger global inflationary pressures.
With a light economic calendar today, investors will look ahead to this week's BoJ policy decision. No change in the base rate is universally expected; instead the markets focus will be on comments regarding the JPY relative strength. The minutes from FOMC September meeting are due on Wednesday and will also capture the markets’ attention. These will be closely watched, as markets seek transparency on the Fed's current standing on exit strategies.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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