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Late European Session
October 01, 2009 4:20 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.12 |  |  | GBP | -0.03 | | | NZD | -0.22 | | | CAD | -0.35 | | | AUD | -0.49 | | | NOK | -0.50 | | | CHF | -0.55 | | | DKK | -0.56 | | | EUR | -0.56 | | | SEK | -0.72 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'099.53 | - 0.67 | | DAX Index | 5'647.56 | - 0.49 | | SMI Index | 6'303.57 | - 0.31 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'043.60 | - 1.28 | | DJIA Index | 9'597.18 | - 1.19 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9'950.00 | - 1.58 | | Hang Seng Futures | 20'895.00 | 0.00 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'005.38 | - 0.23 | | Silver | 16.67 | + 0.15 | | VIX | 27.22 | + 6.29 | | Crude wti | 70.57 | - 0.06 | | USD Index | 76.93 | + 0.29 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8940
R 1: 0.8860
CURRENT: 0.8775
S 1: 0.8770
S 2: 0.8675
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1100
R 1: 1.0990
CURRENT: 1.0745
S 1: 1.0660
S 2: 1.0590
EURJPY
R 2: 133.85
R 1: 132.10
CURRENT: 130.35
S 1: 129.80
S 2: 129.35
USDMXN
R 2: 13.655
R 1: 13.620
CURRENT: 13.580
S 1: 13.468
S 2: 13.325
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Market Brief |
Norwegian Data again stole the headlines in the morning session as the Unemployment Rate for Sep dropped to 2.7% (2.9% exp, 3.0% prior), in stark contrast to the deteriorating labour markets of most of its major peers. EURNOK touched its lowest levels in 11 months (8.4179), but profit-taking on the last 2 days’ move clawed the pair back to flat on the day (8.4460).
Eurozone Unemployment in Aug was 9.6%; exactly on consensus estimates and modestly higher than the month prior (9.5%). Meanwhile a slew of national PMI figures across Europe were slightly better than expected (Eurozone composite PMI 49.3 vs. 49.0 exp.). The EUR failed to benefit from the figures however, as markets were instead focussed on comments from EU’s Almunia that the Eurogroup had discussed EUR strength; fuelling a sell-off in EURUSD down to 1.4520. There were also rumours of corporate selling of EURGBP which kept the pair below 0.9120 for much of the day.
The big focus for markets has obviously been the US data releases this afternoon; jobs data were mixed with initial claims topping estimates at 551K (535K consensus), but continuing claims shrinking to 6090K (6170K expected, 6138K previous). It was also notable that the improvement in Personal Spending in Aug was the biggest since October 2001. Nevertheless, US equities traded very heavy from the open and the poor performance was exacerbated after the long-awaited ISM report came out at 52.6 (54.0 expected, 52.9 prior). So far EURUSD has stubbornly held its ground around 1.4555, but we believe this disappointment in the manufacturing figures does not bode well for risk appetite going forward.
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ADP Report Tempers Optimism For Non-Farm Payrolls
October 01, 2009 8:54 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| GBP | -0.21 | | | NZD | -0.22 | | | CAD | -0.31 | | | NOK | -0.33 | | | AUD | -0.37 | | | JPY | -0.44 | | | SEK | -0.44 | | | DKK | -0.46 | | | EUR | -0.48 | | | EUR | -0.55 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9'978.64 | - 1.53 | | Hang Seng Index | 20'955.25 | 0.00 | | Shanghai Index | 2'779.43 | 0.00 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5'133.90 | - 0.50 | | DAX Index | 5'675.16 | - 0.67 | | SMI Index | 6'323.18 | + 0.10 | | S&P future | 1'050.90 | - 0.19 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'005.36 | - 0.23 | | Silver | 16.55 | - 0.60 | | VIX | 25.61 | + 1.67 | | Crude wti | 69.85 | - 1.08 | | USD Index | 77.09 | + 0.50 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Swiss: Manufacturing PMI, index Sep | 51.3 | 50.2 | CHF/07:30 | | E16 : Final Manufacturing PMI, index Sep | 49.0 | 49.0 P | EUR/07:58 | | UK: Manufacturing PMI, index Sep | 50.1 | 49.7 | GBP/08:28 | | E16: Unemployment rate, % (000s, sa) Aug | 9.6 (146) | 9.5 (167) | EUR/09:00 | | US: Personal income, % m/m Aug | 0.1 (-2.7) | 0.0 (-2.4) | USD/12:30 | | US: Personal consumption, % m/m Aug | 1.1 (-0.5) | 0.2 (-1.6) | USD/12:30 | | US: PCE price index, % m/m (y/y) Aug | 0.4 (-0.9) | 0.0 (-0.8) | USD/12:30 | | US: Initial jobless claims, thous (4wk ma) 26Sep | 527 (541) | 530 (554) | USD/12:30 | | US: ISM manufacturing index Sep | 54.0 | 52.9 | USD/14:00 | | US: Construction spending, % m/m Aug | -0.2 | -0.2 | USD/14:00 | | US: Pending home sales, % m/m Aug | 1.0 (6.7) | 3.2 (12.1) | USD/14:00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8940
R 1: 0.8860
CURRENT: 0.8800
S 1: 0.8770
S 2: 0.8675
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1100
R 1: 1.0990
CURRENT: 1.0730
S 1: 1.0660
S 2: 1.0590
EURJPY
R 2: 133.85
R 1: 132.10
CURRENT: 131.35
S 1: 130.60
S 2: 129.35
USDMXN
R 2: 13.655
R 1: 13.620
CURRENT: 13.565
S 1: 13.468
S 2: 13.325
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Market Brief |
This week’s economic calendar went from famine to feast yesterday as the Eurozone spun out better than expected German Unemployment figures (8.2% vs. 8.4% exp.), and rumours of good US employment figures to come spurred equities and other risky assets higher in the morning session (EURUSD rallied to 1.4671, crude to just shy of $68 and gold back above $1000/oz). The good news continued on the release of Norwegian Retail Sales; a gain of 0.3% M/M in Aug beat analyst expectations (0.2% exp.) and were quickly followed up by Norges Bank’s Gjedrem on the wires, stating that Norway’s interest rate was now “extraordinarily low”. This explicitly hawkish rhetoric added a catalyst to the USDNOK move, sending the pair skidding from 5.8400 to 5.7750. We continue to believe NOK will be one of the outperformers in the coming year as the Norges Bank (and the RBA with AUD, as noted in yesterday’s newsletter) looks to be on the cusp of raising interest rates, differentiating themselves from other G10 peers.
Eurozone CPI first estimate came out at -0.3% for Sep, which was lower than estimates of a 0.2% decline, but the figures did not detract from the broader USD weakness that was driving EURUSD moves. Meanwhile the Swiss KOF Leading Indicator convincingly beat estimates with a 0.85 print vs. 0.30 expected; USDCHF dipped to 1.0285, and EURCHF ground lower as far as 1.5077, but this only served to tee-up the pair before it rocketed higher to 1.5175 in a matter of seconds, and after a brief pause continued on to touch a high of 1.5240. There was no official confirmation that the SNB was the buyer of EURCHF, but it would take a massive player to effect a move of that magnitude, and the alignment of EURCHF levels prior to the move, coinciding with the ECB refinancing operation earlier in the day had a strong whiff of previous interventions.
Almost simultaneous with the alleged intervention was US ADP which marked the turning point of the day. The -254k print heavily missed analyst forecasts for -200k, but the prior month’s reading of -298k was revised upwards to -277k. This somewhat soured sentiment, and whilst the US GDP figures were slightly better than expected at -0.7% vs. -1.2% consensus, much of the improvement was already anticipated and priced in. The Chicago Purchasing Manager rounded off proceedings with a worse than expected 46.1 reading vs. expectations for an expansion of 52.0. This miss did not bode well for today’s broader ISM release, and subsequently the DXY benefitted from a wave of risk aversion (rallied from 76.60 to 76.94), the EURUSD reverted to flat on the day at 1.4585 and equity markets headed down. Commodities were spared the knock-on effect of USD strength after inventory releases out of the US revealed gasoline and distillate stocks were significantly lower than expected, sending crude surging off the lows to a high of $70.72.
Overnight, Asian equities have performed poorly after Japan’s Tankan Survey showed companies will cut capital spending by 10.8% this year. Hong Kong and China were closed for the holidays but both the Nikkei and Kospi are down around 1.5% which has given first advantage to the USD this morning, DXY trading at 76.80, crude back down to $69.90.
We have another busy economic calendar ahead with European PMI data and Unemployment Rate, Norwegian Unemployment, and out of the US; personal income, initial jobless claims, ISM manufacturing index, pending home sales, and construction spending. Focus will largely be on the US releases, in particular the ISM – the first few US data insights for September have been largely disappointing, and further downside surprises could likely portend a loss of risk appetite in the month ahead.
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Asian Session: Yen Expected to Drop Lower on Comments From Japanese Finance Ministry
October 01, 2009 3:24 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Cad | 0.43 | | | | Nzd | 0.22 | | | | Sek | 0.20 | | | | Nok | 0.17 | | | | Aud | 0.17 | | | Dkk | -0.05 | | | Eur | -0.07 | | | Jpy | -0.47 | | | Chf | -0.61 | | | Gbp | -0.66 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10'133.23 | + 0.33 | | Hang Seng Index | 20'955.25 | - 0.28 | | Shanghai Index | 2'779.43 | + 0.90 | | KOSPI Index | 1673.14 | - 1.00 | | FTSE futures | 5'091.00 | - 0.83 | | CAC futures | 3'782.50 | - 0.49 | | DAX futures | 5'674.50 | - 0.79 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 70.36 | - 0.35 | | Gold | 1'009.23 | + 0.15 | | Silver | 16.74 | + 0.57 | | USD Index | 76.71 | - 0.45 | | VIX | 25.61 | + 1.67 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Tankan Manufacturers Survey | -33 | -33 | JN/07:50 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8940
R 1: 0.8835
CURRENT: 0.8775
S 1: 0.8676
S 2: 0.8585
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1100
R 1: 1.0990
CURRENT: 1.0795
S 1: 1.0710
S 2: 1.0660
EURJPY
R 2: 133.85
R 1: 132.10
CURRENT: 130.65
S 1: 129.83
S 2: 129.35
USDMXN
R 2: 13.655
R 1: 13.620
CURRENT: 13.520
S 1: 13.468
S 2: 13.325
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Market Brief |
The economic environment in Japan has been less than attractive for investors considering the extremely low yields and heavily export driven growth. A recent wave of central bank commentary regarding intervention has been a significant component of the recent rally in major currency pairs. South Korea for example was said to have been purchasing dollars to stabilize the Won's strong appreciation over the last several months. In Japan, Makoto Utsume expressed his view that yen will weaken further to a level near 1000 versus the dollar in the next couple of months. On the contrary, hirohisa Fujii expressed his reluctance to intervene in curreny market signalling Traders to take shorts in the yen. Some Traders were able to harness some of the gains ahead of the announcement from the Japanese Finance Minister.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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