Daily Forex Snapshots

Asian Session - Risk Moves Back into Focus

January 08, 2009 11:30 AM CET

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	JPY	0.79
	CHF	-0.64
	EUR	-0.71
	DKK	-0.74
	SEK	-0.79
	GBP	-0.90
	CAD	-1.22
	NOK	-1.70
	NZD	-1.88
	AUD	-2.60

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	8,876.42	- 3.92
Hang Seng Index	14,415.91	- 3.81
Shanghai Index	1,878.18	- 2.38
FTSE 100 Index	4,486.01	- 0.47
DAX Index	4,888.68	- 0.98
SMI Index	5,739.30	- 0.38
DJIA futures	8,705.00	- 0.44

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	842.58	- 0.40
Silver	11.02	- 0.22
VIX	43.39	+ 12.52
Crude wti	43.00	+ 0.86
USD Index	82.51	+ 0.28

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

Unemployment rate, % (sa)	7.8	7.7	EZ / 10.00
GDP, % q/q	-0.2 ,0.6	-0.2 ,0.6P	EZ / 10.00
Consumer confidence, index	-26	-25	EZ / 10.00
Industrial confidence, index	-30	-25	EZ / 10.00
New manufacturing orders, % m/m	-1.6,-19.7	-6.1 ,-17.	GE / 11.00
Initial jobless claims, thous	540	492	US / 13.30
Ivey PMI	37.5	40.2	CA / 15.00
Consumer credit, $ bn	-0.8	-3.5	US / 20.00

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7353
R 2: 0.7269
R 1: 0.7142
CURRENT: 0.7001
S 1: 0.6919
S 2: 0.6853
S 3: 0.6738

EURJPY
R 3: 129.71
R 2: 128.56
R 1: 127.67
CURRENT: 124.69
S 1: 123.71
S 2: 122.57
S 3: 121.67

USDSGD
R 3: 1.4972
R 2: 1.4905
R 1: 1.4896
CURRENT: 1.4835
S 1: 1.4675
S 2: 1.4502
S 3: 1.4333

Market Brief

The Usd was stronger in the Asian session, halting its recent decline on the back of increased risk aversion. The combination of a larger than expected fall in ADP survey, weaker equity markets and 2% rises in oil inventory, which put pressure on commodity prices, dampened optimism and sent investors back into safe haven trades. The EurUsd traded from 1.3680 to 1.3540, while UsdJpy dropped sharply from 92.80 to 91.57. The UsdCad, which failed to close below the 1.1800 support, climbed above 1.2000 as crude prices shed nearly 6%. Asian and European equity markets are all trading lower and US futures are point to a negative open. Commodities are witnessing significant selling pressure, as crude wti is now trading at $42.94bll and spot gold $841.70oz. Negative sentiment should carry through the day, with the impending NFP on Friday looming and materialize in Usd strength.

The highlight of the trading day will be the BoE MPCʼs interest rate decision. Markets are expecting a 50bp cut, but we would not be surprised by something larger in 100bp. The UK domestic activity has continued to deteriorate since the last meeting, while the global economy hasnʼt faired much better. Unemployment rate has grown to 6% with no near-term ceiling in sight, while businesses are still having a tough time accessing credit.. However, the recent drop in the Sterling has given respite to the MPC and could provide the rational for going 50bp instead.

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