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US Session: Investors Express Confidence in Economic Stimulus Plan Through Positive Trading
January 06, 2009 11:16 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Gbp | 1.70 |  | | | Nzd | 1.12 | | | | Aud | 0.79 | | | | Cad | 0.53 | |  | Sek | -0.11 | | | Nok | -0.32 | | | Jpy | -0.47 | | | Chf | -0.65 | | | Eur | -0.98 | | | Dkk | -1.03 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 8,955.00 | + 0.42 | | S&P future | 930.50 | + 0.33 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,273.00 | + 0.63 | | FTSE futures | 4,612.00 | + 1.58 | | CAC futures | 3,400.00 | + 1.22 | | DAX futures | 5,063.50 | + 1.41 | | SMI Futures | 5,737.00 | + 0.81 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 48.60 | - 0.43 | | Gold | 864.60 | + 0.59 | | Silver | 11.48 | + 1.91 | | USD Index | 82.85 | + 0.26 | | VIX | 38.43 | - 1.66 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7355
R 2: 0.7239
R 1: 0.7200
CURRENT: 0.708
S 1: 0.7063
S 2: 0.6920
S 3: 0.6853
EURJPY
R 3: 130.80
R 2: 129.70
R 1: 128.56
CURRENT: 125.65
S 1: 125.35
S 2: 123.70
S 3: 122.57
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4895
R 2: 1.4807
R 1: 1.4765
CURRENT: 1.4778
S 1: 1.4500
S 2: 1.4335
S 3: 1.4170
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Market Brief |
The dollar was mixed against the majors following further announcements from President Elect Obama regarding the US economic stimulus plan. The EurUsd slipped 100pips to the low range of 1.35, while the UsdJpy gained 25pips to the high 93 level. The GbpUsd posted substantial gains of 230pips to low 1.49 price area, despite worsening economic conditions. UK stocks were positive for the sixth day in a row, with retailers showing exceptional strength. Equity markets in the US closed positive as well suggesting that the road to recovery may open up sooner than Bears expected. Corporate earnings from financials are likely to include billions in further writedowns, but investors may have started to price this anecdote into their models. Bond yields were slightly lower across the curve with the 30yr rate moving the most, down 4bps to 2.9%. Commodities were active, with oil trading through previous resistance of $50bbl, but have since retreated back to $48bbl. Gold regained momentum up .5% to $864oz, mostly due in part to dollar weakness against some of the majors.
Traders continue to batter the Euro, which is reflective of the market consensus that the ECB is way behind the US in terms of govt. stimulus efforts. A key challenge for the EU will be able to devise an effective plan in which they can reach a uniform agreement in the direction of Eurozone economy. Commentary from the ECB has been mixed at best illustrating the indecisiveness among central bank members. Some Analysts are openly recommending EurUsd short positions throughout 2009, but I am concerned that the correlation between heightened risk appetite has not completely decoupled. Once treasuries selloff, the dollar will inevitably depreciate due to the allocation of capital to higher yielding assets. The economic story hasn’t changed, with data releases sliding lower in the US and Europe. Traders need to be determine if the gloomy outlook for the global economy is incorporated into FX prices, if that is the case than its time to build bullish strategies in high yielding pairs.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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Asian Session - Markets Still Jittery - Usd Finds Buyers
January 06, 2009 11:06 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | GBP | 0.38 | | | JPY | -0.33 | | | CAD | -0.42 | | | NOK | -0.65 | | | SEK | -0.67 | | | NZD | -0.70 | | | AUD | -0.91 | | | CHF | -0.97 | | | DKK | -1.14 | | | EUR | -1.17 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,080.84 | + 0.41 | | Hang Seng Index | 15,509.51 | - 0.39 | | Shanghai Index | 1,937,15 | + 3.01 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,568.00 | - 0.05 | | CAC 40 Index | 3.348.32 | - 0.34 | | SMI Index | 5,745.64 | - 0.18 | | DJIA futures | 8,912.00 | - 0.06 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 842.35 | - 1.99 | | Silver | 10.88 | - 3.41 | | VIX | 39.08 | - 0.28 | | Crude wti | 48.10 | - 1.45 | | USD Index | 83.46 | + 0.99 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Final Services PMI, index | 46.4 | 46.4 P | GE / 8.55 | | Final Services PMI, index | 42.0 | 42.0 P | EZ / 9.00 | | Final Composite PMI, index | 38.3 | 38.3 P | EZ / 9.00 | | Services PMI, index | 38.9 | 40.1 | UK / 9.30 | | Flash" HICP, % y/y | 1.8 | -0.5 ,2.1y | EZ / 10.00 | | ISM non-mfg composite, index | 37.0 | 37.3 | US / 15.00 | | Factory orders, % m/m | -2.2 ,-9.0 | -5.1 ,-5.3 | US / 15.00 | | Pending home sales, % m/m | -1.0 ,1.3 | -0.7 ,-1.0 | US / 15.00 | | Trade balance, NZD bn (nsa) | -0.838 | -0.942 | NZ / 21.45 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7355
R 2: 0.7239
R 1: 0.7200
CURRENT: 0.708
S 1: 0.7063
S 2: 0.6920
S 3: 0.6853
EURJPY
R 3: 130.80
R 2: 129.70
R 1: 128.56
CURRENT: 125.65
S 1: 125.35
S 2: 123.70
S 3: 122.57
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4895
R 2: 1.4807
R 1: 1.4765
CURRENT: 1.4778
S 1: 1.4500
S 2: 1.4335
S 3: 1.4170
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Market Brief |
The dollar traded higher yesterday as President elect Barrack Obama announced his proposal for a $310Bn Tax cut amidst a stimulus package that could tip the scales at just over $775Bn over a two year period. Equity and currency markets saluted the announcement yesterday and this morning by posting broad gains.
The Euro continues to dwindle in light of the recent dollar strength, yesterday’s move bringing the Euro 1.3540 (down 8%) from the 3 month high of 1.4723 on September 22nd. In recent market conditions the Yen has always bucked the trend with regards to the dollar moves as repatriation and risk aversion tied in with unwinding of carry trades to strengthen the Yen against the dollar – to 13 year highs. It seems that we have rekindled some sort of normality, the yen giving way to the dollar, USDJPY rising 3 big figures since the end of 2008 – now trading near 93.80, levels last seen at the beginning of December.
We are witnessing a change in market dynamics in this near trading year as risk appetite returns and traders are realistic about 2009 being difficult but optimistic governments will continue to intervene and stimulate the global economy. EURUSD is a very large recipient of these new trade flows as the U.S Power transition, concerted intervention and a general renewal in positivism.
Comments from notable economist Jeffrey Sachs on the current recessions’ likelihood of becoming a full blown depression has calmed nerves has been encouraging, highlighting the fact that governments are not imposing tariffs, exchange rate regimes, remain far more flexible and providing copious amounts of liquidity.
Gold has dropped $40/oz since the end of 2008 as the backwardation trade subsides and dollar rises. Gold’s safe haven status continues to hold true but the sheer amount of dollar biased trades of these past few months raises the question of whether bullion is overpriced amidst a slowing global economy. Crude holds around $48.8/bbl.
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US Session: Obama Stimulus Plan Gaining Bipartisan Support Dollar Gains
January 06, 2009 12:27 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Jpy | 0.20 | | | | Dkk | 0.03 | | | | Eur | 0.04 | | | | Nok | 0.01 | | | Sek | -0.04 | | | Gbp | -0.07 | | | Chf | -0.09 | | | Cad | -0.21 | | | Nzd | -0.23 | | | Aud | -0.49 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 8,918.00 | - 0.45 | | S&P future | 926.00 | - 0.15 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,261.75 | - 0.26 | | FTSE futures | 4,540.50 | + 0.57 | | CAC futures | 3,359.00 | + 0.36 | | DAX futures | 4,993.00 | + 0.31 | | SMI Futures | 5,691.00 | + 4.40 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 48.81 | + 5.33 | | Gold | 858.60 | - 0.11 | | Silver | 11.26 | + 0.01 | | USD Index | 82.64 | + 0.98 | | VIX | 39.08 | - 0.28 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Schedules | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7355
R 2: 0.7238
R 1: 0.7162
CURRENT: 0.7108
S 1: 0.6920
S 2: 0.6853
S 3: 0.6799
EURJPY
R 3: 130.80
R 2: 129.70
R 1: 128.56
CURRENT: 127.32
S 1: 126.00
S 2: 125.35
S 3: 123.70
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4895
R 2: 1.4807
R 1: 1.4650
CURRENT: 1.4693
S 1: 1.4500
S 2: 1.4340
S 3: 1.4255
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Market Brief |
The dollar gained considerable strength in early trading and since began to stabilize against the majors. The EurUsd collapsed nearly 300pips to the low range of 1.36, while the UsdJpy jumped roughly 140pips to the low 93 price area. The GbpUsd built light momentum to the high 1.46 level, up 130 pips in today’s session. Equity markets closed higher in Europe, but experienced losses in the US. The SMI in particular added 4% or 221pts, while the Dow fell .91% or 81pts. Bond yields remain extremely compressed, we saw the beginning of a selling trend in the 10yr UST, but rates are still far from normalized levels at 2.48%. Commodities were mixed with a 5% gain in crude oil brining the price to $48bbl, while gold gave up 2.4% at %857oz.
The ECB released commentary expressing their concern over inflationary risks, but emphasized the significance of stabilizing the financial crisis. There appears to be a disconnect between member of the ECB , as recent statements seem to giving investors mixed signals regarding their intentions. Eurozone Q3 GDP growth is scheduled to be released on Thursday, and projections are pointing to a negative reading. The market has already begun to price in further weakness in the region, as the pair fell sharply from start of the trading day. All of this followed the announcement of the fiscal portion of President Elect Obama’s Stimulus Plan. The dollar was able to build momentum on optimism that the tax cuts will be received well by both democrats and republicans in congress, and ultimately spark growth through consumer and commercial spending.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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