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US Session: Markets Are Up Ahead of the FOMC Meeting Later Today
January 28, 2009 5:07 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Cad | 1.83 |  | | | Sek | 1.57 | | | | Gbp | 1.28 | | | | Nok | 1.23 | | | | Aud | 1.07 | | | | Nzd | 1.05 | | | | Dkk | 0.63 | | | | Eur | 0.61 | |  | Chf | -0.14 | | | Jpy | -0.81 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 8,260.00 | + 2.06 | | S&P future | 863.30 | + 2.87 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,222.00 | + 3.06 | | FTSE futures | 4,269.00 | + 2.69 | | CAC futures | 3,071.50 | + 3.91 | | DAX futures | 4,524.50 | + 4.16 | | SMI Futures | 5,370.00 | + 1.65 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 41.08 | - 1.20 | | Gold | 894.68 | - 0.50 | | Silver | 12.13 | + 0.25 | | USD Index | 84.12 | - 0.36 | | VIX | 40.40 | - 4.38 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| FOMC Meeting Today | 0.25% | 0.25% | US/02:15 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7048
R 2: 0.6844
R 1: 0.6718
CURRENT: 0.6684
S 1: 0.6495
S 2: 0.6418
S 3: 0.6291
EURJPY
R 3: 125.28
R 2: 122.17
R 1: 119.45
CURRENT: 118.68
S 1: 116.14
S 2: 113.75
S 3: 112.52
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5336
R 2: 1.5249
R 1: 1.5120
CURRENT: 1.4978
S 1: 1.4924
S 2: 1.4809
S 3: 1.4759
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Market Brief |
The dollar weakened behind a really in risk appetite with most of the majors seeing gains against the greenback. The EurUsd rose 75bps through 1.32, while the UsdJpy picked up 42bps at the low range of 89. The GbpUsd continues to build momentum to the upside, up roughly 140bps trading with a 1.42 handle. Equity markets are positive ahead of the FOMC meeting scheduled for later today, the Dow is up over 100pts or 1.36% and the FTSE picked up 75pts or 3.4%. Bond yields were mixed in the US, but rates in Europe are lower across the curve. Commodities showed gains in the energy sector with oil at $41bbl, but slight drop in precious metals with gold at $896oz.
Economic data out of the Eurozone saw a small bright spot in German Gfk consumer confidence this morning. The reading surprised investors coming in marginally better than expected at 2.2 vs. its previous result of 2.1. The better than expected consumer confidence figure accompanies the uptick in German Ifo, creating a much needed optimism in the region. Needless to say, expectations for any economic releases out of the Eurozone are extremely low, and by no means does the recent news mark the beginning of a recovery phase. We should see the Euro and Gbp trade higher against the dollar as long as risk appetite sustains its current strength (higher equities and lower VIX). The Fed meets today in the US to discuss monetary policy, we don’t expect rates to be changed. Investors will be listening keenly for the Fed’s outlook on the economy, and what their expectations within the context of the new administration.
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Asian Session – Not the Normal FOMC Meeting
January 28, 2009 10:16 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | SEK | 1.50 | | | | NOK | 0.99 | | | | AUD | 0.82 | | | | DKK | 0.70 | | | | EUR | 0.65 | | | | GBP | 0.59 | | | | CHF | 0.25 | | | | CAD | 0.03 | | | NZD | -0.24 | | | JPY | -0.38 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,106.29 | + 0.56 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,266.83 | + 1.72 | | CAC 40 Index | 3,021.17 | + 2.25 | | DAX Index | 4,431.00 | + 2.48 | | SMI Index | 5,372.65 | + 0.44 | | DJIA futures | 8,253.00 | + 1.97 | | S&P future | 858.80 | + 2.33 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 895.63 | - 0.40 | | Silver | 12.11 | + 0.08 | | VIX | 42.25 | - 7.52 | | Crude wti | 42.00 | + 1.01 | | USD Index | 83.85 | - 0.67 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Retail sales, % m/m Dec | -0.4 | 0.4 | SW / 8.30 | | Unemployment rate AKU, % (sa) Nov | 2.8 | 2.7 | NO / 9.00 | | KoF leading indicator Jan | -0.50 | -0.39 | SW / 10.30 | | FOMC interest rate announcement, % Jan | 0.0 - .25% | 0.0 - .25% | US / 19.15 | | RBNZ interest rate announcement, % Jan | 4.00 | 5.00 | NZ / 20.00 | | Trade balance, NZDbn (nsa) Dec | -- | -0.52 | NZ / 21.45 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7048
R 2: 0.6844
R 1: 0.6718
CURRENT: 0.6684
S 1: 0.6495
S 2: 0.6418
S 3: 0.6291
EURJPY
R 3: 125.28
R 2: 122.17
R 1: 119.45
CURRENT: 118.68
S 1: 116.14
S 2: 113.75
S 3: 112.52
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5336
R 2: 1.5249
R 1: 1.5120
CURRENT: 1.4978
S 1: 1.4924
S 2: 1.4809
S 3: 1.4759
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Market Brief |
The Usd was mixed in the Asian session, as FX markets lack conviction before today’s FOMC meeting. The EurUsd traded higher from 1.3174 to 1.3316, while the UsdJpy was range bound between 88.90 and 89.49. Yesterday, US Equity markets finished higher, with the S&P500 up by 1.1%, while 2-year US Treasury yields rose by 7bp to close at 0.87bp. European equity markets have opened higher and US futures are pointing to a positive start. Some positive data released yesterday has given the market temporary pause. Yesterdays the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was slightly better than expected (-49 in Jan) while German IFO surveys beat expectations on current assessment, business climate and expectations. While the negative economic data still clearly outpaces the positive, markets are now searching for clues to see if the decline in global activity is gradually slowing. However, overall we still expect risk appetite to be under pressure, which should benefit safe haven trades in the Usd, Jpy and Chf.
The highlight of today’s will be the FOMC meeting, however it will lack the normal speculation/drama surrounding the rate decision. With Fed funds rate already in a target range of 0% and 0.25%, there is little more for additional easing. While members could vote to lower the ceiling, it seems very clear that the Fed has no intention of doing that. As always, participants will be searching through the accompanying statement for signals of policy action or comments on views or steps regarding QE.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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