|
|
US Session: Dollar Gives Up Strength on Slight Easing in Risk Aversion
January 26, 2009 11:53 PM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Sek | 0.34 |  | | | Nok | 0.29 | | | | Eur | 0.28 | | | | Dkk | 0.27 | | | | Jpy | 0.22 | | | | Chf | 0.18 | | | | Aud | 0.17 | | | | Gbp | 0.17 | | | | Nzd | 0.10 | |  | Cad | -0.03 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| DJIA futures | 8,020.00 | - 0.89 | | S&P future | 827.80 | + 0.28 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,179.00 | + 0.58 | | FTSE futures | 4,054.50 | + 1.09 | | CAC futures | 2,879.00 | + 0.35 | | DAX futures | 4,226.00 | - 0.22 | | SMI Futures | 5,246.00 | - 0.34 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Crude wti | 45.93 | + 5.18 | | Gold | 895.55 | + 4.50 | | Silver | 11.89 | + 4.19 | | USD Index | 85.56 | + 0.04 | | VIX | 46.97 | - 0.68 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6840
R 2: 0.6684
R 1: 0.6569
CURRENT: 0.6544
S 1: 0.6420
S 2: 0.6295
S 3: 0.6077
EURJPY
R 3: 118.82
R 2: 117.21
R 1: 116.04
CURRENT: 115.38
S 1: 112.10
S 2: 111.30
S 3: 109.90
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5340
R 2: 1.5265
R 1: 1.5120
CURRENT: 1.5045
S 1: 1.4920
S 2: 1.4805
S 3: 1.4759
|
|
Market Brief |
The trend of risk aversion continues to maintain a hold over the financial markets. The EurUsd rallied a bit over 250pips to the low range of 1.32, while the UsdJpy rose nearly 30pips stabilizing slightly above 89. The GbpUsd gained 235pips to the mid 1.40 level, after a week of substantial losses this move is significant on an intraday basis but is minimal considering the 5 day move. Equity markets closed marginally higher with the Dow up 38pts or .48%, while the FTSE gained 156pts or 3.86%. Bond yields continue to rise continuing the active selling among Traders on rising credit concerns, the 2yr interest rate is still below 1% at .82%. Commodities were mixed, with gold sustaining strength above $900oz and oil slipping nearly 2% to $45bbl.
In the Eurozone, ECB commentary cited a strong resistance to easing monetary policy below 2%. These statements made by ECB Member Mersch are consistent with comments by ECB President Trichet in their previous meeting. The situation in Europe is developing rapidly and the govt. is running out of options to thwarting a prolonged financial crisis in the region. The political scheme within EU may become a bureaucratic trap for the central bank causing our outlook to remain grim for Euro.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
|
|
Asian Session – Quiet Start to the Trading Week
January 26, 2009 10:38 AM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | CAD | 1.59 | | | | GBP | 0.37 | | | | NOK | 0.25 | | | | DKK | 0.14 | | | | EUR | 0.10 | | | SEK | -0.06 | | | AUD | -0.07 | | | CHF | -0.15 | | | JPY | -0.21 | | | nzd | -1.05 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 7,682.14 | - 0.81 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,095.66 | + 1.06 | | CAC 40 Index | 2,866.29 | + 0.60 | | DAX Index | 4,190.27 | + 0.27 | | SMI Index | 5,332.24 | + 0.47 | | DJIA futures | 7,981.00 | + 0.10 | | S&P future | 823.90 | + 0.04 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 900.00 | + 0.02 | | Silver | 11.99 | + 0.08 | | VIX | 47.27 | - 0.04 | | Crude wti | 45.53 | - 2.03 | | USD Index | 85.72 | + 0.12 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| BBA mortgage approvals, K | -- | 18 | UK / 9.30 | | BBA mortgage lending, £bn Dec | -- | 2.9 | UK / 9.30 | | BBA consumer credit, £bn Dec | -- | 0.2 | UK / 9.30 | | Leading indicators, % m/m Dec | -0.3,-3.8Y | -0.4,-3.7Y | US / 15.00 | | Existing home sales, mn saar Dec | 4.40 | 4.49 | US / 15.00 | | CSPI, % y/y Dec | -2.4 | -1.9 | JP / 23.50 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6840
R 2: 0.6684
R 1: 0.6569
CURRENT: 0.6544
S 1: 0.6420
S 2: 0.6295
S 3: 0.6077
EURJPY
R 3: 118.82
R 2: 117.21
R 1: 116.04
CURRENT: 115.38
S 1: 112.10
S 2: 111.30
S 3: 109.90
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5340
R 2: 1.5265
R 1: 1.5120
CURRENT: 1.5045
S 1: 1.4920
S 2: 1.4805
S 3: 1.4759
|
|
Market Brief |
The Usd was stable in the Asian session. The EurUsd traded between 1.2860 and 1.2964, while the UsdJpy traded between 88.40 and 89.30. The Cad continued to find buyers, as commodity prices traded higher with UsdCad falling from 1.2377 to 1.2259. Asian regional indexes were all slightly lower on light trading due to holidays, while European indexes are trading higher. A rash of disappointing earnings from the US should cap any upwards move this afternoon. Last Friday, commodities rallied with crude closing above $45.00bll, while gold jumped nearly $50. Banking sector troubles continue to be a primary concern for the market this week, with the UK specifically in focus. The UK Governments measures initiated last week failed to ease investors concerns and the UK's bank prices fell. In addition, the announcement by the BoE to purchase private sector assets, in the beginning financed by the issuance of treasury bills but then resorting to quantitative easing if necessary, weighed on sentiment. We expect the BoE to cut rates to close to zero in & QE to begin mid 2009. In an interview with the FT, ECB member Mersch stated that he would be unwilling to see the ECB rates drop much below than the current 2.00% level. A comment consistent with ECB President Trichet’s comments at the last ECB meeting.
The Chf was the second worst-performing G10 currency last week (behind the GBP). Given the entrenched nature of the risk aversion trade and, therefore, outperformance of funding currencies, this was somewhat difficult to explain. However, we think this phenomenon to be primarily related to the SNB Vice-Chairman Hildebrand making the SNB's most overt mention to FX intervention and keeping buyers sidelined.
The market expects the Fed funds target rate to remain in the 0-0.25% range, while are expected to accelerate unconventional monetary policy measures this week. Also on Wednesday, the RBNZ meeting should see the policy rate cut by 100bp to 4.00%. And perhaps the most interesting data release will be the US first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, expected to show that real GDP contracted by a 5.0%
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|