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US Session: The Sterling Collapses Despite UK Govt. Stimulus Plans
January 19, 2009 8:39 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Jpy | 0.23 |  |  | Nok | -0.29 | | | Aud | -0.70 | | | Nzd | -0.79 | | | Cad | -0.95 | | | Eur | -1.04 | | | Dkk | -1.04 | | | Sek | -1.16 | | | Chf | -1.29 | | | Gbp | -1.86 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 8,196.00 | - 0.57 | | S&P future | 842.60 | - 0.71 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,193.75 | - 0.27 | | FTSE futures | 4,083.00 | - 1.13 | | CAC futures | 3,001.50 | - 0.65 | | DAX futures | 4,348.00 | - 0.91 | | SMI Futures | 5,328.00 | - 0.89 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 35.20 | - 3.59 | | Gold | 833.93 | - 1.09 | | Silver | 11.13 | - 1.29 | | USD Index | 84.76 | + 0.65 | | VIX | 46.11 | - 9.59 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7140
R 2: 0.7048
R 1: 0.6840
CURRENT: 0.6768
S 1: 0.6720
S 2: 0.6628
S 3: 0.6539
EURJPY
R 3: 126.50
R 2: 125.28
R 1: 122.17
CURRENT: 120.29
S 1: 117.77
S 2: 115.88
S 3: 114.40
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5069
R 2: 1.4992
R 1: 1.4939
CURRENT: 1.4922
S 1: 1.4805
S 2: 1.4760
S 3: 1.4675
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Market Brief |
The dollar reassumed its strengthening position against the majors, with the exception of the other designated safe‐haven currency the yen. The EurUsd dropped 120pips to the mid range of 1.31, while the UsdJpy was marginally lower by 15pips settling around 90.50 on light volume. Equity markets are closed in the US, but ended negative in Europe with the DAX and CAC off 1% from the prior session. US Bonds markets were also closed due to the Federal holiday, but Europe saw some decent activity due to the ratings action against Spain’s sovereign credit. Commodities declined across the board with oil down 5% to $34bbl, and gold lower by less than 1% to $836oz.
The Sterling gave back some of Friday’s gains, down roughly 200pips approaching 1.45 as a level of intraday support. This is quite surprising, after the UK govt. announced a very detailed plan to improve credit conditions and control CPI in a lower rate environment. The euro was down roughly 100pips as Spain’s sovereign debt was cut to AA+ from AAA. Expect to see a strong reaction tomorrow, when the Bond market opens again here in NY and Traders look to unwind to meet BASEL II requirements on Institutional balance sheets. This should contribute to some selling pressure in the Euro, but the risk aversion trade would subvert any fundamental price action, so we will be watching the VIX carefully.
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Asian Session - Markets Prepare for Obama
January 19, 2009 9:50 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | SEK | 2.07 | | | | NOK | 2.07 | | | | AUD | 1.53 | | | | NZD | 1.25 | | | | CAD | 0.78 | | | | GBP | 0.39 | | | | EUR | 0.38 | | | | DKK | 0.32 | | | JPY | -0.06 | | | CHF | -0.46 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,256.85 | + 0.32 | | Hang Seng Index | 13,339.99 | + 0.63 | | Shanghai Index | 1,986.67 | + 1.64 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,248.30 | + 2.44 | | CAC 40 Index | 3,079.47 | + 2.07 | | SMI Index | 5,509.14 | + 1.36 | | DJIA futures | 8,319.00 | + 0.92 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 839.45 | - 0.43 | | Silver | 11.22 | - 0.46 | | VIX | 46.11 | - 9.58 | | Crude wti | 36.10 | - 1.12 | | USD Index | 83.88 | - 0.39 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Construction output, % m/m | -- | 0.1,-4.0 y | EZ / 10.00 | | Tertiary Industry Index, m/m % | -0.8 | 0.4 | JP / 23.50 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7140
R 2: 0.7048
R 1: 0.6840
CURRENT: 0.6768
S 1: 0.6720
S 2: 0.6628
S 3: 0.6539
EURJPY
R 3: 126.50
R 2: 125.28
R 1: 122.17
CURRENT: 120.29
S 1: 117.77
S 2: 115.88
S 3: 114.40
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5069
R 2: 1.4992
R 1: 1.4939
CURRENT: 1.4922
S 1: 1.4805
S 2: 1.4760
S 3: 1.4675
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Market Brief |
The Usd was stable in the Asian session, as a positive tone has settled across markets on this historical week. The EurUsd traded between 1.3380 to 1.3305, while the UsdJpy traded between 91.30 to 90.35. Our FX risk indicator, the AudJpy, trended higher for most of the Asian session but slipped below 61.00, as Europe prepares to open. The core focus will be on Asset markets and their reaction to UK's government potentially announcing another round of bank bail outs and Obama's inauguration speech on Tuesday. Both events could produce significant optimism and help ease the bearish sentiment, which took hold last week. However, looking past this probable bout of optimism, we still have a gloom outlook and except any correction in FX, safe-haven buying is to be short lived. Asian regional indexes are trading higher and European stock futures are pointing to a higher open. Commodity weakness seems to have carried through the weekend, with crude and gold slightly lower.
The inauguration of President-elect Obama on Tuesday will likely to define the headlines and trading activity for much of this holiday-shortened week. The US consumer is still depressed, despite substantial tax cuts and lower gasoline prices, which boosted real incomes, in 2008. However, the inauguration of President Obama has generated unusual market optimism that, somehow, the new administration will be able to rescue the fragile US economy with a massive stimulus package. While this week we are positioned to trade around the "Obama Bounce", ie selling Usd on growing risk appetite, these trade will be short term and we are expecting a longer term bout of Usd strength.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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