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Asian Session - Euro Zone Industrial Production Set to Disappoint
January 14, 2009 10:18 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | AUD | 1.13 |  | | | NOK | 0.62 | | | | GBP | 0.37 | | | | CAD | 0.41 | | | | EUR | 0.18 | | | | DKK | 0.16 | | | | CHF | 0.12 | | | | JPY | 0.01 | |  | NZD | -0.22 | | | SEK | -0.67 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,438.45 | + 0.29 | | Hang Seng Index | 13,704.61 | + 0.26 | | Shanghai Index | 1,928.87 | + 3.50 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,354.66 | - 1.01 | | CAC 40 Index | 3,198.17 | + 0.01 | | DAX Index | 4,637.99 | + 0.02 | | DJIA futures | 8,400 | - 0.09 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 826.70 | + 0.57 | | Silver | 10.81 | + 0.46 | | VIX | 43.27 | - 5.60 | | Crude wti | 39.06 | + 3.38 | | USD Index | 83.97 | - 0.35 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Industrial production, % m/m | -1.8,-6.0Y | -1.5,-5.7Y | EZ / 10.00 | | Import prices, % m/m | -5.3,-9.3Y | -6.7,-4.4Y | US / 13.00 | | Non-petroleum import prices, % m/m | -- | -1.8,2.4Y | US / 13.00 | | Retail sales, % m/m | -1.2,-7.0Y | -1.8,-7.4Y | US / 13.00 | | Retail sales ex autos, % m/m | -1.4,-3.0Y | -1.6,-2.9Y | US / 13.00 | | FRB of Philadelphia President Plosser (FOMC non-vo | -- | -- | US / 13.30 | | Business inventories, % m/m | -0.5,3.7Y | -0.6,4.6Y | US / 15.00 | | Core machinery orders, % m/m | -8.0 | -4.4 | JP / 23.50 | | Corporate goods price index, % y/y | 0.8 | 2.8 | JP / 23.50 | | FRB of Minneapolis President Stern (FOMC non-voter | -- | -- | US / 18.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7142
R 2: 0.7042
R 1: 0.6820
CURRENT: 0.6751
S 1: 0.6576
S 2: 0.6490
S 3: 0.6294
EURJPY
R 3: 126.52
R 2: 125.28
R 1: 121.86
CURRENT: 118.65
S 1: 115.88
S 2: 114.41
S 3: 113.64
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5114
R 2: 1.5010
R 1: 1.4942
CURRENT: 1.4853
S 1: 1.4755
S 2: 1.4675
S 3: 1.4502
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Market Brief |
The Usd strength was curtailed in the Asian session, as recovering credit markets and a rally in crude prices helped generate some positive sentiment. The EurUsd traded up from 1.3170 to 1.3314, while the UsdJpy rallied from 88.95 to 89.83. The NzdUsd, after being sold heavily on S&P rating comments, found some respite trading from.0.5520 to 0.5462 (on the back of higher commodity prices) and our current currency risk appetite gauge, AudJpy, firmed traded up from 59.00 to 61.15. At this point, the S&P sees a potential downgrade for Portugal, Greece, Spain, Ireland and New Zealand . Yesterday, Wall Street session closed flat, with VIX coming off slightly. Asian regional indexes are trading slightly higher and European stock futures are pointing to a higher opening. Yesterday, Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech held a few notable comments, such as that President-Elect Obama proposed stimulus package could provide the contracting US economy a significant boost and highlighted the differences between the BoJs quantitative easing and what he calls the Feds "credit easing". We see the recent correction in Usd strength as temporary and given the current macro environment, we expect the Usd continues to rally against the Euro.
In the European session, markets will be watching the Eurozone industrial production, which looks set to see another sharply decline for a third consecutive month German, French and Spanish production figures have already shown significant declines, so there is little reason for optimism.
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US Session: Resurgence of Dollar Strength Throughout the Market
January 14, 2009 12:07 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Aud | 0.20 | | | | Gbp | 0.07 | | | | Cad | 0.07 | | | | Nzd | 0.02 | | | Jpy | -0.01 | | | Sek | -0.01 | | | Chf | -0.03 | | | Eur | -0.03 | | | Dkk | -0.03 | | | Nok | -0.04 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 8,403.00 | - 0.06 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,203.25 | - 0.06 | | S&P future | 868.50 | - 0.01 | | FTSE futures | 4,343.50 | - 1.33 | | CAC futures | 3,198.00 | - 1.52 | | DAX futures | 4,653.50 | - 1.80 | | SMI Futures | 5,471.00 | - 1.07 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 37.78 | + 0.51 | | Gold | 821.60 | - 0.05 | | Silver | 10.74 | - 0.19 | | USD Index | 84.27 | + 1.50 | | VIX | 43.27 | - 5.61 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7142
R 2: 0.7042
R 1: 0.6820
CURRENT
S 1: 0.6739
S 2: 0.6666
S 3: 0.6612
EURJPY
R 3: 126.52
R 2: 125.28
R 1: 121.86
CURRENT
S 1: 117.54
S 2: 115.88
S 3: 113.64
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5114
R 2: 1.5010
R 1: 1.4942
CURRENT
S 1: 1.4755
S 2: 1.4675
S 3: 1.4502
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Market Brief |
The Usd dominated the majors with the exception of the Jpy, which seems to be regarded as safe‐haven currency of choice. The EurUsd sunk over 170pips through 1.32, while the UsdJpy traded close to its previous close at the low range of 89. The GbpUsd came under strong selling pressure, dropping over 300pips through prior support of 1.45. Equity markets were negative to flat in the US, following the trend of stocks in Europe. Bond yields remain compressed well below historical levels providing false support to the dollar. On the commodities front, oil settled at $38bbl seeing resistance at $40bbl. Gold was mostly flat at $821oz, after a sharp unwinding by metals traders and reversal in risk appetite.
ECB President Trichet emphasized the need to take aggressive action and reiterated the benefits of having one common currency. The content of his speech seemed like more of an attempt to restore much needed confidence in the ECB among the financial community. The action by S&P to put Spanish long term debt on credit watch negative was a severe blow to the Trichet, and increases the likelihood that rates may be cut further than 50bps. S&P noted that Spain will encounter a severe challenge to rebuild their economy, particularly the area of public finance. Investors looking for security in govt. debt may be strongly discouraged from these bonds as the value will be affected by ratings changes. The return of dollar strength is mostly inspired by weak expectations in corporate earnings and global economic growth. Reform will be a key component in timing the market recovery, more information regarding the US stimulus plan will be released once President Elect Obama comes into power.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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