|
|
Debate Surrounds US Govt. Bailout Dollar Slowly Recovers
September 23, 2008 7:11 PM CEST
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
 | Gbp | -0.09 | | | Cad | -0.12 | | | Jpy | -0.30 | | | Eur | -0.42 | | | Dkk | -0.42 | | | Nzd | -0.71 | | | Sek | -0.73 | | | Aud | -0.79 | | | Chf | -0.75 | | | Nok | -0.85 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| DJIA Index | 11,093.35 | + 0.71 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,213.15 | + 0.50 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 2,197.67 | + 0.86 | | FTSE futures | 5,150.40 | - 1.64 | | CAC futures | 4,165.00 | - 1.69 | | DAX futures | 6,134.50 | - 0.45 | | SMI Futures | 6,850.00 | - 1.40 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Crude wti | 108.60 | - 0.70 | | Gold | 890.41 | - 0.74 | | Silver | 13.22 | - 1.75 | | USD Index | 76.52 | + 0.49 | | VIX | 33.47 | - 1.12 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8694
R 2: 0.8534
R 1: 0.8519
CURRENT: 0.8414
S 1: 0.8284
S 2: 0.8011
S 3: 0.7803
EURJPY
R 3: 157.76
R 2: 156.99
R 1: 156.84
CURRENT: 155.72
S 1: 153.82
S 2: 150.79
S 3: 149.04
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4250
R 2: 1.4139
R 1: 1.4110
CURRENT: 1.4127
S 1: 1.4028
S 2: 1.3835
S 3: 1.3785
|
|
Market Brief |
The Usd gained back some of yesterday's losses as pressures regarding the outlook of the US economy fade. The EurUsd slid nearly 140 pips to the low 1.46 level, while the UsdJpy rose 20 pips to the high 105 price area. The GbpUsd is mostly flat off about 10 pips from the previous close trading with a 1.85 handle. The equity markets are flat as Bernanke and Paulson address the Senate regarding the govt. bailout plan. European Stocks fell with the FTSE in particular down over 100 pts, the CAC lower by 84pts, and the DAX weaker by 40pts. Commodities declined with oil trading at 106 and gold down as well at 890. Bond yields tightened with the 2yr treasury lower by 6bps, the latter portion of the curve followed suit with the 10 and 30yr in 2-3bps.
German PMI surprised to the downside, coming in at 48.1 vs. 49.2 exp. This reading is the lowest seen since late 2001, shifting the focus back to the likelihood of the Eurozone falling into a recession. ECB Pres. Trichet stated that markets are trading "hectically" but affirms that their stance regarding monetary policy will be to preserve price stability. Making the likelihood for a rate cut anytime soon, less and less probable, this may result in a serious dilemma due to waning growth. Light data out of the UK, hence why cable prices have remained very mostly flat. We hold a bearish position on the US for the near-term, with a bias to the upside of the next several months as the market gets comfortable with the govt. bailout plan.
US data continued to deteriorate, with HPI (Home Price Index) figures coming weaker than expected at -0.6% vs. the estimate of -0.2%. The Richmond Fed. Manufacturing Index also came in at -18 vs. -12 expected, signifying the retraction in overall production. Dollar trading will become increasingly sensitive to the economic news as Traders look for signs of stabilization, particularly in the housing sector. The EurUsd should remain rangebound between 1.44-1.48, with a bias to the upside over the near-term.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
|
|
Asian Session - Barriers to Bailout
September 23, 2008 10:06 AM CEST
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.70 |  | | | GBP | 0.31 | | | | EUR | 0.14 | | | | DKK | 0.13 | | | | CAD | 0.07 | | | | NOK | 0.05 | | | CHF | -0.01 | | | SEK | -0.06 | | | AUD | -0.24 | | | NZD | -0.32 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Hang Seng Index | 19,060.30 | - 2.91 | | Shanghai Index | 2,201.51 | - 1.56 | | FTSE futures | 5,278.50 | - 1.39 | | DAX futures | 6,114.00 | - 0.78 | | CAC futures | 4,197.50 | - 0.92 | | SMI Futures | 6,947.00 | - 1.08 | | DJIA Index | 11,095.00 | + 0.28 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 890.48 | - 0.72 | | Silver | 13.25 | - 1.48 | | VIX | 33.85 | + 5.55 | | Crude wti | 107.77 | - 1.46 | | USD Index | 76.34 | + 0.24 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| PMI Manufacturing (Sep Prov.) | 47.3 | 47.6 | EZ / 8.00 | | PMI Services (Sep Prov.) | 48.0 | 48.5 | EZ / 8.00 | | PMI Composite (Sep Prov.) | 47.8 | 48.2 | EZ / 8.00 | | BBA Mortgage Lending (Aug) | -- | 22,448 | UK / 8.30 | | Industrial New Orders (Jul) | -0.7%,-3.9 | -0.3%,-7.4 | EZ / 9.00 | | OFHEO House Price Index (Jul) | -0.2% | 0.0% | US / 14.00 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8694
R 2: 0.8534
R 1: 0.8519
CURRENT: 0.8414
S 1: 0.8284
S 2: 0.8011
S 3: 0.7803
EURJPY
R 3: 157.76
R 2: 156.99
R 1: 156.84
CURRENT: 155.72
S 1: 153.82
S 2: 150.79
S 3: 149.04
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4250
R 2: 1.4139
R 1: 1.4110
CURRENT: 1.4127
S 1: 1.4028
S 2: 1.3835
S 3: 1.3785
|
|
Market Brief |
The Usd continued to come under pressure in the Asian session, as the potential deterioration in the US fiscal balance and higher commodity prices weighed on the greenback. The EurUsd traded higher to 1.4866, before sliding back down to 1.4762, while the UsdJpy fell from 106.29 to 105.16. However, in late Asian trading we are beginning to see some Usd buying interest. Carry trades continue to show strength on the back of cross currency purchases and less on traders selling vol. With commodities making a strong recovery, the AudUsd jumped to 0.8519 and the UsdCad slid below the 1.0350 mark (a portion of the large move in oil was potentially due to a short squeeze as futures expired). Yesterday, US equities came under another bout of selling, with S&P falling -3.80%. Asian equity indexes are trading in the red ( Japan is on holiday), with Hang Seng leading the losers -2.91%. European stock futures are poised to open lower.
With Yields lower, Usd weaker and risk aversion high, it suggests that the markets are questioning whether the Paulson Plan will be passed in its current form. Serious questions are being asked by the US public to why $700bn is being used of taxpayer money to bailout Wall Street "fat cats" and the two presidential hopefuls are latching on with their own negative rhetoric. We expect the volume to only be turned up this week which will penalize the Usd short term.
In Japan, the ruling LDP elected Taso Aso as the new president and effectively making him the next Prime Minister. Aso has been vocal in his support of using government spending to support the economy, which would be Jpy positive (despite the large debt / GDP ratio). However the potential loss of the lower house to DPJ will create uncertainly for LPD to enact fiscal stimulus. But for right now, the Jpy will be guided by macro factors and with investors still risk sensitive, it will be Jpy favorable.
On the continent, markets will be watching the Eurozone PMI surveys. We are expecting the figures to show the economy has contracted for the second consecutive quarter. While the Eur is negative, itʼs yet to be seen how much the markets are watching fundamentals. On as side note, in a newspaper interview released today, Trichet stated that the ECB will do whatever is needed to lower inflation towards the bank's target of below 2%.
The main event today is the testimony of Fed Bernanke, Trsy Secretary Paulson, and SEC Cox, before the Senate Banking Committee.
|
|
Late US Session: Dollar sinks on Growing US Bearishness
September 23, 2008 12:03 AM CEST
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Eur | 0.18 | | | | Gbp | 0.18 | | | | Dkk | 0.17 | | | | Chf | 0.12 | | | | Nok | 0.12 | | | | Nzd | 0.10 | | | | Jpy | 0.04 | | | | Sek | 0.01 | | | | Cad | 0.01 | | | Aud | -0.05 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| DJIA Index | 11,015.69 | - 3.27 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,207.09 | - 3.82 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 2,178.98 | - 4.17 | | FTSE futures | 5,278.50 | - 1.39 | | CAC futures | 4,236.50 | - 2.01 | | DAX futures | 6,162.50 | - 1.37 | | SMI Futures | 6,947.00 | - 1.08 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Crude wti | 120.92 | + 15.66 | | Gold | 898.15 | + 0.13 | | Silver | 13.45 | 0.00 | | USD Index | 76.15 | - 1.97 | | VIX | 33.85 | + 5.55 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8694
R 2: 0.8534
R 1: 0.8403
CURRENT: 0.8309
S 1: 0.8011
S 2: 0.7803
S 3: 0.7675
EURJPY
R 3: 157.76
R 2: 156.99
R 1: 155.57
CURRENT: 154.31
S 1: 150.79
S 2: 149.01
S 3: 147.52
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4542
R 2: 1.4478
R 1: 1.4394
CURRENT: 1.4207
S 1: 1.4182
S 2: 1.4142
S 3: 1.4116
|
|
Market Brief |
The Usd suffered substantial losses in the today's trading session. The EurUsd rose over 300 pips finding resistance at the 1.48 level, while the UsdJpy slid 196 pips to the mid 105 price area. The GbpUsd gained 250 pips following the overall trend in dollar weakness across the G10. The equity markets fell in the US and Europe with the Dow down over 370pts, as the current budget deficit in the US supppots a negative outlook on economic environment. Commodity markets rallied strong with oil back above 120 in the largest single day gain history, gold followed the same trend testing the $900 level. Bonds were mostly flat in the US, with yields likely to decompress in the near-term after last weeks decline in rates. Usd trading is likely to continue its move to the downside based on the current market conditions. It is unclear whether the Fed bailout plan will prevent the US from heading into a recession, and based on that, Traders continue to build on their short positions.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|