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Oil prices Fuel Strong Rally in the Dollar
September 02, 2008 8:48 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
 | Cad | -0.34 | | | Chf | -0.51 | | | Jpy | -0.57 | | | Sek | -0.64 | | | Dkk | -0.72 | | | Eur | -0.74 | | | Gbp | -1.03 | | | Nok | -1.06 | | | Nzd | -1.40 | | | Aud | -1.49 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 11,548.76 | + 0.05 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 2,349.14 | - 0.78 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,277.56 | - 0.41 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,620.70 | + 0.32 | | CAC 40 Index | 4,539.07 | + 1.50 | | DAX Index | 6,518.47 | + 1.51 | | SMI Index | 7,298.59 | + 0.98 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 805.71 | - 1.47 | | Silver | 13.09 | - 2.64 | | VIX | 21.98 | + 6.44 | | Crude wti | 109.56 | - 5.11 | | USD Index | 21.98 | + 6.44 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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Currency Tech |
NA
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Market Brief |
The Usd continues its strong rally in the early trading session, as oil prices declined to a five-month low. The EurUsd fell nearly 100 pips to the low 1.45 level, while the UsdJpy rose 70 pips to the high 108 price area. The GbpUsd dropped substantially trading through previous support to the mid 1.78 area, with further room to the downside. Equity markets rallied in the US and Europe, based on relief in commodity prices and overall exuberance in Usd trading. Bond yields retracted on weaker than expected economic data out of the US, as well as the movement of foreign capital back into domestic assets.
Eurozone PPI came in lower than expected at 1.1% vs. the consensus figure of 1.2%. PMI data was slightly better than estimates at 47.6 vs. 47.5 exp. Inflationary data is likely to see further decompression based on consolidated energy prices. Production will probably hover around the 50 range, as economic conditions do not infer higher demand from consumers. In addition, the ECB will not be in a strong position to raise rates in the near future as growth in the region continues to suffer. We are looking for a trading between 1.42-1.44 towards year end, with close attention to developments in oil prices. Chancellor
Darling of the BoE expressed his optimism regarding the UK economy, his comments were taken very lightly by the market, as the cable continued its recent drop. The BoE announced a GBP1 bln program to revive the housing sector, which follows suit with recent activity by the Fed. Our outlook on the cable remains bearish, as the housing program is most likely the beginning of a longer term solution. The cable is trading at historical lows, and fundamentals don’t imply that closure to the UK down cycle is anywhere on the horizon.
Mixed economic data came out of the US, with the ISM manufacturing reading in slightly lower than expected at 49.9 vs. an estimate of 50. Construction spending came in slightly better than expected but still negative at -0.4% vs. the consensus figure of -0.6%. The economic numbers released had minimal effect in comparison to the impact of oil prices, which fueled the dollar rally. Our desk maintains a bullish outlook on the dollar, we expect the recent momentum to carry into year-end with a major focus on movements in monetary policy.
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Asian Session - Autralian Central Bank cuts it's interest rate for first time in 7 years as Japan looks for a new Prime Minister
September 02, 2008 9:46 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.14 |  | | | AUD | 0.05 | | | | CHF | 0.02 | | | DKK | -0.1 | | | CAD | -0.13 | | | EUR | -0.13 | | | SEK | -0.14 | | | NOK | -0.26 | | | GBP | -0.51 | | | NZD | -0.72 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 12592 | - 1.88 | | Hang Seng Index | 20764 | - 0.68 | | Shanghai Index | 2323 | - 0.05 | | FTSE futures | 5644 | - 0.70 | | DAX futures | 6500 | - 0.09 | | Nasdaq futures | 1882 | - 1.59 | | DJIA futures | 11512 | - 0.21 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 815.33 | - 0.29 | | Silver | 13.35 | - 0.71 | | VIX | 20.65 | + 6.28 | | Crude wti | 111.15 | - 3.73 | | USD Index | 77.754 | + 0.14 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| EUR Zone PPI | 1.2% | 0.9% | EUR / 09:00 | | USD ISM Prices Paid | 82.0 | 88.5 | US / 14:00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8814
R 2: 0.8694
R 1: 0.8586
CURRENT: 0.8423
S 1: 0.8482
S 2: 0.8276
S 3: 0.8173
EURJPY
R 3: 162.01
R 2: 161.13
R 1: 159.73
CURRENT: 157.16
S 1: 157.56
S 2: 156.03
S 3: 155.16
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4401
R 2: 1.4333
R 1: 1.4276
CURRENT: 1.4300
S 1: 1.4116
S 2: 1.4078
S 3: 1.4016
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Market Brief |
The USD traded higher during late US session as Hurricane Gustav was downgraded to a tropical storm after going from a category 3 hurricane to a 2. Dollar continued it's recent strength on the back of commodities as Crude declined to $111.15. Gold declined sharply on the first day of the month from recent highs of $835 to $817, which then extended into early Asian trading, falling near $804 levels.
Japanese markets continue to burst as the seams as Prime Minister Fukuda unexpectedly quits, in a remake of Shinzo Abe's resignation after only a short time in office. The Nikkei 225 dropped 1.7% on Monday and is down almost 16% this year. Despite this, The Japanese Yen held it's sharp rally against majors from last week, easing somewhat but staying 1.2% higher against the dollar at 108.09.
Australian Central bank cut rates by 25 basis points to 7% for the first time in almost 7 years in a bid to offset a globally-driven tightening in financial conditions and quell increasing risk of recession. Aussie rose after the announcement but subsequently fell 140pips in 2 hours to a one year low against the dollar, currently trading at 0.8408.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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