Daily Forex Snapshots

Late US Session-Equity Markets Rally Behind Dollar Strength

August 08, 2008 11:49 PM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	Nok	2.45
	Sek	2.04
	Dkk	1.89
	Chf	1.76
	Aud	1.68
	Nzd	1.38
	Cad	1.32
	Jpy	0.59
	Gbp	-1.34
	Eur	-1.90

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

DJIA Index	11,595.00	+ 1.36
S&P 500 Index	1,282.00	+ 1.11
NASDAQ 100 Index	1,907.00	+ 1.11
FTSE 100 Index	5,495.00	+ 0.23
CAC 40 Index	4,486.00	+ 0.54
DAX Index	6,590.00	+ 0.14
SMI Index	7,287.00	+ 1.35

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Crude wti	116.76	- 2.75
Gold	853.77	- 2.21
Silver	15.40	- 4.97
USD Index	75.71	+ 1.56
VIX	20.46	- 3.26

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

No Major Events

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9347
R 2: 0.9301
R 1: 0.9206
CURRENT: 0.9122
S 1: 0.9032
S 2: 0.9230
S 3: 0.8979

EURJPY
R 3: 169.97
R 2: 169.73
R 1: 169.33
CURRENT: 169.38
S 1: 167.29
S 2: 166.86
S 3: 166.01

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3983
R 2: 1.3940
R 1: 1.3850
CURRENT: 1.3822
S 1: 1.3767
S 2: 1.3716
S 3: 1.3651

Market Brief

The Usd finished stronger against most of the G10 in the late US session. The EurUsd suffered additional losses trading testing 1.50 as a current support level, while UsdJpy maintained its current level of 110 on the aggressive shift in market sentiment. The GbpUSd declined sharply, trading through our previous projection of 1.93 to 1.92 on weak economic conditions. Commodity prices continued this week’s slide to the downside, with oil retracing back to levels we saw back in April indicating that new support may be found at 110. If energy prices remain contained, this will provide further room for the dollar to appreciate. Bonds continued to sell off across the curve on increasing risk appetite, the 2yr yield in particular increased 7bps. Currency Traders are looking for the ECB not to raise rates next meeting, signifying a move towards a softening monetary policy. As most of the G10 braces for a down cycle, the Usd may have reached a floor, nevertheless we should look for a consistent chain of positive economic data before we position ourselves for an extended rally into the end of the year.

Risk Disclaimer:

Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.

Early US Session-Dollar Surges Higher Across the G10

August 08, 2008 5:30 PM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	Jpy	-0.59
	Cad	-1.32
	Gbp	-1.34
	Nzd	-1.37
	Aud	-1.65
	Chf	-1.74
	Dkk	-1.89
	Eur	-1.91
	Sek	-2.04
	Nok	-2.45

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

DJIA Index	11,595.00	+ 1.36
S&P 500 Index	1,282.00	+ 1.11
NASDAQ 100 Index	1,907.00	+ 1.11
FTSE 100 Index	5,495.00	+ 0.23
CAC 40 Index	4,486.00	+ 0.54
DAX Index	6,590.00	+ 0.14
SMI Index	7,287.00	+ 1.35

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Crude wti	116.76	- 2.75
Gold	853.77	- 2.20
Silver	15.40	- 4.97
USD Index	75.71	+ 1.56
VIX	20.46	- 3.26

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

No Major Events Scheduled

Currency Tech

Market Brief

The Usd rose substantially in the early trading session based on a dovish outlook regarding monetary policy in Europe. The EurUsd fell over 200 pips to the mid 1.50 level, while the UsdJpy gained nearly 70 pips, trading with a 110 handle. The GbpUsd dropped 250 pips to 1.91, as fundamentals are beginning to be realized in the current price. Equity markets recovered most of yesterday’s losses in the US, up nearly 200 puts in the Dow, while European stocks made a marginal move to the upside. The commodity sector continues its reversal, with oil down to 116, and gold trading lower at 854. Bond yields began to widen again, as traders are positioning themselves in favor of risks ahead of next week’s trading session.

The ECB held rates steady at 4.25, which was in line with market expectations. It was the commentary released from Trichet regarding growth concerns and issues stemming from both the credit crisis and global inflation which had a significant effect on the currency markets. The Euro traded through previous support to 1.50, which is in-line with our range projection of 1.48-1.51 in the near-term. The BOE whom also decided to hold rates steady at 5.00%, are in a growth sensitive state which may require them to ease rates towards the end of the year. Monetary policy should shift to a softening phase throughout most of the G10, supporting the FIFO (First in First Out) theory, which states that the US should emerge from the recent financial downturn, while some of the other major economies are just entering the negative portion of the cycle. We project the cable to see additional weakness due to deteriorating economic conditions, the price range should move between 1.89-1.92.

The US Financial Markets posed a major rally on weaker oil prices and a shift in market sentiment favoring risk. The dollar displayed resilience despite a volatile week on the equity side and more bad news from the credit markets in the form tight liquidity while banks digest losses. The FX sector has started a divergence from events in other pockets of the markets, showing a much needed level of isolation in order for the Usd to sustain its recent upward momentum.

Risk Disclaimer:

Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.

ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.