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US Session-Mixed Economic Data, Dollar Picks Up Strength
August 30, 2008 12:01 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Eur | 0.23 |  | | | Cad | 0.17 | | | | Gbp | 0.08 | | | | Nok | 0.06 | |  | Sek | -0.06 | | | Aud | -0.09 | | | Chf | -0.15 | | | Dkk | -0.24 | | | Nzd | -0.48 | | | Jpy | -0.81 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 11,715.18 | + 1.85 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,300.68 | + 1.48 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 2,411.64 | + 1.23 | | FTSE futures | 5,637.50 | + 0.51 | | CAC futures | 4,496.00 | + 0.68 | | DAX Index | 6,443.00 | + 0.09 | | SMI Index | 7,260.00 | + 0.99 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 116.67 | + 0.93 | | Gold | 832.95 | - 0.13 | | Silver | 13.69 | + 0.01 | | USD Index | 76.95 | - 0.26 | | VIX | 19.43 | - 1.67 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8846
R 2: 0.8814
R 1: 0.8693
CURRENT: 0.8688
S 1: 0.8513
S 2: 0.8505
S 3: 0.8276
EURJPY
R 3: 165.33
R 2: 164.41
R 1: 163.11
CURRENT: 161.27
S 1: 160.14
S 2: 158.61
S 3: 158.24
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4401
R 2: 1.4333
R 1: 1.4276
CURRENT: 1.4165
S 1: 1.4078
S 2: 1.4016
S 3: 1.3977
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Market Brief |
The Usd posted slight gains in today’s trading session based on stabilization in oil prices under 120. The EurUsd fell over 30 pips to the 1.46 level, while the UsdJpy dropped further, down 70 pips to the high 108 price area. The GbpUsd traded close to yesterday’s closing level with a 1.82 handle, and price behavior will probably trend to the downside based on economic fundamentals. Equity markets reversed yesterday’s gains due to concerns about a rise in oil prices, and lackluster consumer spending numbers released in the US. Commodities traded slightly lower from the previous close, but the energy sectors remains volatile on worries regarding hurricane activity in the gulf. Bond yields moved marginally higher with the 10yr showing the highest increase at 3bps. Trader’s most likely unwound positions in govt. securities as the last of this week’s economic data was announced and we are going into a holiday weekend.
Eurozone inflation surprised to the downside at 3.8% vs. 4.0% exp. The gap between wages and prices will have to narrow for consumers to find relief from the recent deterioration in the region’s economy. Consumer confidence remains negative at -19 vs. -20 est. which provides further evidence that the overall climate for growth is worsening. Once the correlation between oil and Euro diminish, we could see a breakout opportunity for the dollar. From a technical perspective the tight correlation between the Euro and Oil prices compressed the Usd from further upward momentum. In the UK, consumer confidence came in better than expected but negative at -36 vs. the consensus figure of -41. Cable trading was mostly flat, we hold our bearish outlook with a price target near 1.80.
Personal income fell less than expected at -0.2% vs. -0.7% EST. In addition, consumer spending figures were in line with expectations at 0.2%. Although the reading met market expectations, it was still negative implying that the consumer hasn’t fully recovered from the recent slowdown in the US economy. The dollar managed to trade higher towards the end of the trading session, but with light volume and high volatility, not much support was needed to move prices in either direction. Depending on how oil reacts to hurricane Gustav, the dollar should stay rangebound at current levels until volume picks up again.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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