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Late US Session-Oil Finds Support at $115 Giving Way to Dollar Strength
August 28, 2008 11:41 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Cad | 0.02 |  | | | Jpy | .001 | | | | Aud | 0.00 | |  | Chf | -0.01 | | | Dkk | -0.04 | | | Sek | -0.05 | | | Nok | -0.06 | | | Eur | -0.06 | | | Nzd | -0.06 | | | Gbp | -0.06 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 11,502.51 | + 0.79 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,281.66 | + 0.80 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 2,382.46 | + 0.87 | | FTSE futures | 5,544.50 | + 0.30 | | CAC futures | 4,370.50 | - 0.10 | | DAX futures | 6,313.50 | - 0.38 | | SMI Futures | 7,130.00 | + 0.47 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 119.46 | + 1.11 | | Gold | 840.10 | + 1.60 | | Silver | 13.86 | + 2.71 | | USD Index | 76.79 | - 0.34 | | VIX | 19.76 | - 3.56 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8846
R 2: 0.8814
R 1: 0.8693
CURRENT: 0.8688
S 1: 0.8513
S 2: 0.8505
S 3: 0.8276
USDCAD
R 3: 1.0868
R 2: 1.0801
R 1: 1.0729
CURRENT: 1.0449
S 1: 1.0422
S 2: 1.0379
S 3: 1.0323
EURCHF
R 3: 1.6379
R 2: 1.6295
R 1: 1.6258
CURRENT: 1.6127
S 1: 1.6092
S 2: 1.6081
S 3: 1.5992
EURGBP
R 3: 0.8099
R 2: 0.8035
R 1: 0.8004
CURRENT: .80481
S 1: 0.7867
S 2: 0.7792
S 3: 0.7766
EURJPY
R 3: 165.33
R 2: 164.41
R 1: 163.11
CURRENT: 161.27
S 1: 160.14
S 2: 158.61
S 3: 158.24
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Market Brief |
The Usd began to pick up strength in late trading based on retraction in oil prices. The EurUsd fell 28 pips to the 1.47 level, while the UsdJpy remained flat at the mid 109 price area. The GbpUsd slid 69 pips trading through its previous support level of 1.83 to the high 1.82 price area. Commodities were mixed, with oil down 2.00% at 115, and gold marginally higher at 835. Bond yields rose at the earlier points of the curve primarily the 2’s and 10’s, while the less relevant 30yr decreased 1bp. Traders are most likely readjusting their positions following the better than expected GDP figure out of the US, and major rally in the equity markets.
The dollar should continue to build traction based on today’s economic releases. The controlling variable for most of the G10 seems to be price movements in the commodity sector, oil in particular. Oil prices wave remain contained in order for the dollar rally to have serious longevity. The Fed will be the other controlling factor regarding increased dollar strength, as the market awaits more clarity regarding near-term monetary policy. We hold a bullish stance on the currency looking for the EurUsd to trade in the 1.40-1.44 range before year-end.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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Early US Session-Rising Oil Prices Trump Strong US GDP
August 28, 2008 5:08 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Aud | 1.14 | | | | Chf | 0.71 | | | | Nzd | 0.65 | | | | Jpy | 0.57 | | | | Eur | 0.47 | | | | Dkk | 0.47 | | | | Nok | 0.33 | | | | Cad | 0.13 | | | | Gbp | 0.12 | | | | Sek | 0.09 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 11,502.51 | + 0.79 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,283.20 | + 0.09 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 2,382.46 | + 0.87 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,544.50 | + 0.30 | | CAC 40 Index | 4,366.76 | - 0.15 | | DAX Index | 6,301.81 | - 0.30 | | SMI Index | 7,125.74 | + 0.55 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 119.46 | + 1.11 | | Gold | 840.10 | + 1.60 | | Silver | 13.86 | + 2.71 | | VIX | 19.76 | - 3.56 | | USD Index | 76.79 | - 0.34 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8846
R 2: 0.8814
R 1: 0.8693
CURRENT: 0.8688
S 1: 0.8513
S 2: 0.8505
S 3: 0.8276
USDCAD
R 3: 1.0868
R 2: 1.0801
R 1: 1.0729
CURRENT: 1.0449
S 1: 1.0422
S 2: 1.0379
S 3: 1.0323
EURCHF
R 3: 1.6379
R 2: 1.6295
R 1: 1.6258
CURRENT: 1.6127
S 1: 1.6092
S 2: 1.6081
S 3: 1.5992
EURGBP
R 3: 0.8099
R 2: 0.8035
R 1: 0.8004
CURRENT: .80481
S 1: 0.7867
S 2: 0.7792
S 3: 0.7766
EURJPY
R 3: 165.33
R 2: 164.41
R 1: 163.11
CURRENT: 161.27
S 1: 160.14
S 2: 158.61
S 3: 158.24
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Market Brief |
The Usd experienced a slight move to the downside in the early trading session based on rising oil prices. The EurUsd rose 37 pips to the mid 1.47 level, while the UsdJpy fell 36 pips to the low 109 price area. The GbpUsd slipped several pips lower, holding ground at the mid 1.83 level. Equity markets rose in the US and Europe on stronger than expected economic data. Commodities posed gains on concerns about hurricane activity in the gulf, with oil trading higher at 119 and gold up as well at 840. Long positions in Treasuries continue to unwind pushing yields higher, as investors get comfort following positive GDP data.
Positive news came out of Germany with unemployment falling to 7.6% vs. 7.8% exp. Despite comments from the employment agency in Germany stating that the labor market has not been adversely affected by the slowdown in the economy, the contract laws regarding employment may skew the viability of this reading being that employers are heavily incentivized to retain employees. The ECB signaled that they lowering rates in the near-term may be untimely. Home Prices in the UK fell to the lowest levels since 1990, adding additional pressure to the consumer. The economic outlook in the UK remains grim, which will continue to be represented in the price of the cable. Our target on the pound remains bearish with a price level of 1.80-1.81.
GDP growth came in better than expected at 3.3% vs. the consensus figure of 2.7%. This critical piece of data provides the Fed with more ammunition to hike rates in the near future. In addition, jobless claims came in line with expectations at 425k, a bit lower than the prior reading of 432k. Once a positive trend in economic growth is established in the US, we can affirm the recent rally in the Usd to have longevity. The other significant variable in projecting dollar strength lays in oil prices. Price behavior in the commodities sector has had a strong correlation with currency movements. As hurricane season winds down and the Fed provides additional clarity regarding the timeliness of a rate hike, we should see direct effect on Usd trading.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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Late US Session-Dollar Bulls On Hold Ahead of US GDP Data
August 28, 2008 12:54 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Nzd | 0.09 | | | | Chf | 0.07 | | | Nok | -0.01 | | | Gbp | -0.01 | | | Eur | -0.02 | | | Dkk | -0.03 | | | Jpy | -0.06 | | | Sek | -0.06 | | | Aud | -0.07 | | | Cad | -0.09 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 11,495.00 | - 0.02 | | S&P future | 1,281.50 | - 0.05 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,900.00 | - 0.09 | | FTSE futures | 5,531.00 | + 0.67 | | CAC futures | 4,375.00 | + 0.01 | | SMI Futures | 7,097.00 | + 0.03 | | DAX futures | 6,337.50 | - 0.58 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 118.17 | + 0.02 | | Gold | 827.83 | + 0.11 | | Silver | 13.49 | - 0.04 | | USD Index | 77.01 | - 0.06 | | VIX | 19.76 | - 3.56 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8814
R 2: 0.8693
R 1: 0.8650
CURRENT: 0.8582
S 1: 0.8513
S 2: 0.8505
S 3: 0.8488
EURJPY
R 3: 164.41
R 2: 163.93
R 1: 163.11
CURRENT: 160.37
S 1: 160.19
S 2: 160.14
S 3: 158.61
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4540
R 2: 1.4401
R 1: 1.4333
CURRENT: 1.4196
S 1: 1.4179
S 2: 1.4118
S 3: 1.4031
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Market Brief |
The Usd saw a slight pullback in the US trading session, but regrouped in the latter part of the day. The EurUsd fell 70 pips to the low 1.47 level, while the UsdJpy gained 20 pips to the mid 109 price area. The GbpUsd slid 57 pips, trading with a 1.83 handle on strong economic data expected out of the US tomorrow. Equity markets rallied in the US, despite halted trading in Fannie Mae towards the market close, apparently trading was stopped based on a restructuring in management, but Traders suspected the announcement of a Fed takeover. Commodities rose across the board with oil trading with at 118 and gold at 830, the recent gains are mostly due to concerns about hurricane activity in the gulf. Bonds were mostly flat with the 2yr yield tighter by 3bps, this is something we should watch ahead of the GDP figure scheduled to be released tomorrow. European bonds saw widening across the curve with the Italian and the Spanish 10yr yield higher by 7bps, implying a little bit of relief regarding risk aversion in the region.
The dollar is poised for a move to the upside, but the market may have overpriced in a strong GDP figure out of the US. If GDP is below expectations, we are likely to see a heavy sell off in the dollar as investors reassess their long term projections. In addition, the GDP figure will either give the Fed more support to raise rates before year end, or cause them to delay tightening in attempt to preserve growth. We hold our bullish position targeting a price of 1.44, with a range between 1.48-1.45 for the near term in EurUsd trading.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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