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US Session-Oil rose putting light pressure on the Dollar
August 27, 2008 4:47 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Nzd | 0.83 |  | | | Nok | 0.66 | | | | Aud | 0.59 | | | | Eur | 0.48 | | | | Dkk | 0.48 | | | | Cad | 0.26 | | | | Sek | 0.23 | | | | Chf | 0.19 | | | | Gbp | 0.09 | | | | Jpy | 0.05 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 11,405.00 | - 0.06 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,272.80 | + 0.09 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,889.00 | - 0.13 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,510.50 | + 0.30 | | CAC 40 Index | 4,360.00 | - 0.33 | | DAX Index | 6,323.50 | - 0.80 | | SMI Index | 3,299.00 | - 0.33 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 118.95 | + 2.31 | | Gold | 831.09 | + 0.75 | | Silver | 13.57 | - 0.15 | | USD Index | 76.94 | - 0.41 | | VIX | 20.63 | + 0.68 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8814
R 2: 0.8693
R 1: 0.8650
CURRENT: 0.8582
S 1: 0.8513
S 2: 0.8505
S 3: 0.8488
EURJPY
R 3: 164.41
R 2: 163.93
R 1: 163.11
CURRENT: 160.37
S 1: 160.19
S 2: 160.14
S 3: 158.61
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4540
R 2: 1.4401
R 1: 1.4333
CURRENT: 1.4196
S 1: 1.4179
S 2: 1.4118
S 3: 1.4031
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Market Brief |
The Usd traded marginally lower against most of the G10 in the early US session. The EurUsd rose a bit over 60 pips trading at the low 1.47 level, while the UsdJpy is hovering around the previous closing price of the mid 109 price. The GbpUsd is slightly higher up 15 pips at the low 1.84 level, with little support to make a drastic move either direction with light news out of the region. Equity markets were mostly flat in the US and Europe, as Traders await critical economic data scheduled to be released tomorrow. Commodities are higher, with oil up 2.00% at 118 and gold at 830, concerns regarding hurricane activity in the gulf sparked the recent rally. Bond yields continue increase ahead of the GDP number set to be released tomorrow, in addition, these levels imply that the market is expecting a strong number which would provide additional dollar strength.
Commentary from ECB Weber inferred that a rate cut in the near-term may be untimely. With the recent economic news out of Germany, the Eurozone is slipping deeper into a down cycle. The Business Climate Index which came in at its lowest level in several years is evidentiary of the pessimistic view producers have in the region. In the UK, consumers are feeling considerable pressure due to worsening conditions in the housing sector, as well as anemic economic growth. The nationwide house price index is set to be released later this week, and projections point to further devaluation in homes. The cable is likely to find support around the 1.82 level over the next month based on the pessimistic financial outlook in the region.
The US Financial markets are preparing for critical news in the form of GDP which is set to be released tomorrow. Durable Goods orders came in stronger than expected at 1.3% vs. the consensus figure of 0.0%. In addition, mortgage applications rose 0.5% from the prior reading of -1.5%. These data points lend to the macro view that the dollar rally will have moderate longevity, with the vital component being the Fed’s decision regarding monetary policy. We expect the EurUsd to trade lower to 1.44 over the next or so, considering oil prices remain contained below 120.
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Asian Session - Crude Rally Spoils Usd Strength
August 27, 2008 9:29 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 0.91 | | | | AUD | 0.56 | | | | JPY | 0.54 | | | | DKK | 0.36 | | | | EUR | 0.36 | | | | NOK | 0.35 | | | | SEK | 0.32 | | | | CHF | 0.32 | | | | GBP | 0.23 | | | | CAD | 0.21 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 12,752.96 | - 0.20 | | Hang Seng Index | 21,223.41 | + 0.79 | | Shanghai Index | 2,342.15 | - 0.33 | | FTSE futures | 5,494.00 | - 0.36 | | CAC futures | 4,372.50 | - 0.04 | | SMI Futures | 7,095.00 | + 0.51 | | DJIA futures | 11,406.00 | - 0.05 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 825.91 | + 0.12 | | Silver | 13.67 | + 0.55 | | VIX | 20.49 | - 2.28 | | Crude wti | 116.50 | + 0.19 | | USD Index | 77.02 | - 0.30 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Unemployment rate (AKU), % | 2.5 | 2.5 | NO / 8.00 | | Durable goods new orders, % m/m | 0.1 ,-6.1y | 0.8 ,-1.1 | US / 12.30 | | Rate Announcement | 6.00% | 6.00% | PO / -- |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8814
R 2: 0.8693
R 1: 0.8650
CURRENT: 0.8582
S 1: 0.8513
S 2: 0.8505
S 3: 0.8488
EURJPY
R 3: 164.41
R 2: 163.93
R 1: 163.11
CURRENT: 160.37
S 1: 160.19
S 2: 160.14
S 3: 158.61
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4540
R 2: 1.4401
R 1: 1.4333
CURRENT: 1.4196
S 1: 1.4179
S 2: 1.4118
S 3: 1.4031
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Market Brief |
The Usd pulled back slightly in Asian session, as crude prices rallied. The EurUsd traded up to 1.4743, before sliding below the 1.4700, while UsdJpy dropped temporarily below the 109.00 figure, before stabilizing around 109.20. Crude oil prices rose above $117.00bbl (from $112.40bbl yesterday lows), as concerns of a tropical storm growing strengthened. Should the storm build to hurricane proportions, this would be the first significant threat to Gulf of Mexico energy infrastructure in almost three years. On very low volumes, US equity markets were able to close higher, but Asia indexes have been unable to hold on to the positive momentum and are currently mixed. European futures are pointing to a higher open.
In Australia , construction work done dropped by -2.6% vs. 1.5% (well below 2.3% prior quarter). This reading was the lowest since late 2006 and was driven by decreases in engineering and public sector construction. In our view, this weak data supports the RBAs rate cut of 25bp next week. However, the Aud shrugged off the weak domestic data, as AudUsd climbed to 0.8607. In New Zealand the NBNZ Business confidence index improved in August -20.5 vs. -43.2 exp., but still remains entrenched in negative territory.
Today the market will be waiting for the US session data releases (including the critical EIA inventory data). In addition Atlanta Fed President Lockhart is scheduled to speak.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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