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US Session-Dollar Momentum Beginning to Stall as Traders Evaluate US Economic Health
August 25, 2008 6:17 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Jpy | 0.89 |  | | | Chf | 0.53 | | | | Gbp | 0.27 | | | | Nok | 0.18 | | | | Dkk | 0.02 | | | | Aud | 0.03 | | | | Eur | 0.02 | | | | Cad | 0.03 | |  | Nzd | -0.04 | | | Sek | -0.11 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 11,408.00 | - 1.80 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,270.00 | - 1.72 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,892.50 | - 1.92 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,514.00 | 0.00 | | CAC 40 Index | 4,345.50 | - 1.37 | | DAX Index | 6,300.50 | - 0.97 | | SMI Index | 7,059.00 | - 0.70 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 114.71 | + 0.11 | | Gold | 823.21 | + 0.02 | | Silver | 13.45 | + 0.67 | | VIX | 20.97 | + 11.48 | | USD Index | 76.58 | - 0.29 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8846
R 2: 0.8797
R 1: 0.8757
CURRENT: 0.8643
S 1: 0.8626
S 2: 0.8593
S 3: 0.8503
EURJPY
R 3: 163.88
R 2: 163.10
R 1: 162.39
CURRENT: 162.06
S 1: 160.88
S 2: 160.14
S 3: 158.61
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4265
R 2: 1.4219
R 1: 1.4201
CURRENT: 1.4192
S 1: 1.4025
S 2: 1.3891
S 3: 1.3819
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Market Brief |
The Usd posted marginally higher gains against most of the G10 based on consolidated oil prices and better than expected economic Data out of the US. The EurUsd is trading slightly lower from Friday’s close at the high 1.47 level, while the UsdJpy also experienced losses down nearly 60 pips at the mid 109 price. The GbpUsd has been mostly flat in the early US session, trading with a 1.85 handle on continued bearishness on UK economic growth. Equity markets fell in the US based on speculation that further losses will emerge from the financial sector, particularly shares of AIG, JPM and American Express have retracted since the market open. Commodities remain relatively contained with oil trading at 114 and gold at 821. Bond yields are tighter in the 2 and 10yr by as much as 9bps, the recent moves in rates signify a growing cautiousness among the investment community.
Economic data light was out of Europe awaiting German GDP which is scheduled to be released tomorrow. GDP is expected show negative growth in Germany, and if the actual readings are correct it would be devastating for the Euro. The UK reported a retraction in growth last Friday proving concerns of a softening economy in Europe to be true. The depth of the slowdown will be the difficult component for Traders to discern, but through analyzing the trend of negative economic data out of the region it is unlikely that will see a recovery before Q409. Nationwide House Prices are scheduled to be released on Thursday, and are likely to provide further evidence for cable selling. We maintain our bearish view on the GbpUsd, and look for prices to remain rangebound between 1.83-1.85.
US financial markets saw slight gains on Bernanke’s commentary at Jackson Hole, but the underlying facts in the credit sector do not support his argument. Spreads on corporate bonds and treasuries point to an additional losses, and the recent dollar rally is beginning to slowdown. The central theme regarding the G10 will be an assessment of how severe the down cycle for countries in Europe, Asia, and North America. US economic data does not suggest that a recovery is in the near future, with losses mounting in the housing and financial sectors. We are likely to see another pull back in dollar trading before the currency gains at the levels we saw in the last four weeks. Short-term yields would have to raise an additional 150-200bps, to confirm that market is comfortable with risk and the central bank is prepared to hike rates back to levels above 3.00%.
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Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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Asian Session - Usd Regains Footing at Open
August 25, 2008 9:23 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| JPY | -0.03 | | | CHF | -0.20 | | | CAD | -0.25 | | | AUD | -0.35 | | | NOK | -0.38 | | | EUR | -0.42 | | | SEK | -0.43 | | | GBP | -0.44 | | | DKK | -0.44 | | | NZD | -0.65 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 12,878.66 | + 1.67 | | Hang Seng Index | 21.082.36 | + 3.38 | | Shanghai Index | 2,421.02 | + 0.65 | | DAX futures | 6,351.00 | - 0.18 | | CAC futures | 4,391.50 | - 0.32 | | SMI Index | 7,109.00 | + 1.45 | | DJIA futures | 11,595.00 | - 0.18 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 821.20 | - 0.22 | | Silver | 13.33 | - 0.22 | | VIX | 18.81 | - 5.09 | | Crude wti | 114.98 | + 0.34 | | USD Index | 77.03 | + 0.34 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Existing Home Sales (Jul) | 4,910k | 4,860k | US / 14.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8846
R 2: 0.8797
R 1: 0.8757
CURRENT: 0.8643
S 1: 0.8626
S 2: 0.8593
S 3: 0.8503
EURJPY
R 3: 163.88
R 2: 163.10
R 1: 162.39
CURRENT: 162.06
S 1: 160.88
S 2: 160.14
S 3: 158.61
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4265
R 2: 1.4219
R 1: 1.4201
CURRENT: 1.4192
S 1: 1.4025
S 2: 1.3891
S 3: 1.3819
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Market Brief |
The Usd was slightly stronger in Asian session, as market factors in lower crude prices. The EurUsd fell sharply from 1.4780 to 1.4700, while UsdJpy bounced between 109.95 and 110.29, before settling around the 110.10 level. We are seeing significant weakness in Asian EM, as the UsdThb climbed to 34.14 and the UsdSgd to 1.4205. Recent softening in rhetoric from several Asian policymakers & lower commodity prices have caused traders to adjust rate expectations. The Jpy fueled carry trades suffered, as a resurgence of risk aversion, combined with cross currency selling, sent the EurJpy down to 161.87 and AudJpy fell to 94.91 sessionʼs lows. The Asian stock markets are trading higher with the Hang Seng leading the pack up 3.38%. European index futures are mixed. Crude is marginally higher up 0.34% while gold is trading down -0.22%.
We are expecting Existing home Sales to come in unchanged. However, the reason we are seeing sales stabilizing is because there is a massive surge in distressed homes, primarily houses repossessed by mortgage lenders.
Market will be relatively subdued today, as no major events or data releases are scheduled in Europe (holiday in the UK) or the US.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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