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US Session-Dollar Remains Stable Despite Rising Volatility
August 13, 2008 8:24 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Nzd | 0.94 |  | | | Sek | 0.28 | | | | Chf | 0.18 | | | | Dkk | 0.11 | | | | Cad | 0.11 | | | | Eur | 0.11 | | | | Aud | 0.06 | |  | Jpy | -0.08 | | | Nok | -0.15 | | | Gbp | -1.25 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 11,535.00 | - 0.95 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,285.20 | - 0.49 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,940.00 | - 0.24 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,484.00 | - 1.06 | | CAC 40 Index | 4,422.00 | - 2.17 | | DAX Index | 6,466.00 | - 2.28 | | SMI Index | 7,206.00 | - 1.50 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 116.78 | + 3.34 | | Gold | 827.18 | + 1.83 | | Silver | 14.87 | + 2.55 | | USD Index | 76.17 | + 0.02 | | VIX | 21.20 | + 0.14 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8952
R 2: 0.8846
R 1: 0.8728
CURRENT: 0.8708
S 1: 0.8593
S 2: 0.8513
S 3: 0.8506
EURJPY
R 3: 167.82
R 2: 165.59
R 1: 164.41
CURRENT: 162.80
S 1: 161.61
S 2: 160.14
S 3: 158.61
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4265
R 2: 1.4219
R 1: 1.4142
CURRENT: 1.4035
S 1: 1.4025
S 2: 1.3891
S 3: 1.3819
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Market Brief |
The Usd continued its trend of appreciation in the early trading session. The EurUsd slid 15 pips trading with a 1.49 handle, while the UsdJpy experienced a further decline to the high 108 price level. The GbpUsd experienced a fell over 200 pips toggling back and forth between the 1.86 and 1.87, as Traders price in the deteriorating market conditions in the UK. Commodities are edging higher with oil trading at 115, and gold up 2% at 824, we are watching this sector closely as price behavior has been closely correlated to currencies. Bond yields are mostly flat due to uncertainty in the global economy, most investors are trying to position themselves to take advantage of the recent shift in market sentiment seen through price volatility in the currency market.
Industrial production came in flat at 0.0% vs. 0.3% exp. signaling that Eurozone growth is seeing a major slowdown. With the negative data in the form of the manufacturing and services PMI, as well as a decline in business confidence, the patter of weaker growth is likely to persist. German GDP will be a key component in Eurodollar trading this week, as it is the central indicator of growth. Market expectations point to a negative reading, which is most likely not fully priced into the region’s currency. If the GDP number comes out worst than expected, the euro should experience additional losses and move to the 1.47 area. The UK unemployment rate grew to 5.4% vs. 5.3% exp. based on deterioration in production and narrowing demand from consumers. Negative momentum has pushed the cable to a 21 month low of 1.87, with the potential to move lower as the market realizes the severity of the UK economic situation.
The dollar index continues to climb representing the overall reversal in dollar bearishness. Monetary policy looks to cater to growth outside of the US, which creates the opportunity for the Usd to carry this rally into the end of the year. The controlling factor in currency trading has been heavily affected by movements in the commodity sector. Developments in the macro-economy and a stabilization in commodity prices will enable the Fed to consider raising rates, but we do not expect a rate hike in the near-term.
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Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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Asian Session - Usd Rally Takes a Breather
August 13, 2008 9:54 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.90 | | | | NOK | 0.70 | | | | CHF | 0.57 | | | | SEK | 0.52 | | | | DKK | 0.52 | | | | EUR | 0.49 | | | | GBP | 0.15 | | | | CAD | 0.12 | | | NZD | -0.49 | | | AUD | -0.50 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 13,023.05 | - 2.10 | | Hang Seng Index | 21,386.85 | - 1.17 | | Shanghai Index | 2,446.30 | - 0.44 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,512.50 | - 0.39 | | CAC 40 Index | 4,489.65 | - 0.63 | | SMI Index | 7,259.32 | - 0.58 | | DJIA futures | 11,648.00 | + 0.03 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 824.15 | + 1.45 | | Silver | 14.83 | + 2.24 | | VIX | 21.17 | + 5.21 | | Crude wti | 113.83 | + 0.72 | | USD Index | 75.89 | - 0.34 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Unemployment Rate (Jul) | 2.6% | 2.6% | UK / 8.30 | | Unemployment Change (Jul) | 17K | 15.5K | UK / 8.30 | | Average Earnings (Jun) (%3m y/y) | 3.6% | 3.8% | UK / 8.30 | | Industrial Production (Jun) | 0.1%(+0.2% | -1.9%(-0.6 | EZ / 9.00 | | BoE Inflation Report (Aug) | -- | -- | UK / 9.30 | | Interest Rate Announcement | 5.75% | 5.75% | NO / 12.00 | | Import Price Index (Jul) | 1.0%(+20.5 | 2.6%(+20.5 | US / 12.30 | | Retail Sales (Jul) | -0.1% | -0.1% | US / 12.30 | | Core Retail Sales (Jul) | +0.5% | +0.8% | US / 12.30 | | Business Inventories (Jun) | +0.5% | +0.3% | US / 14.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8952
R 2: 0.8846
R 1: 0.8728
CURRENT: 0.8708
S 1: 0.8593
S 2: 0.8513
S 3: 0.8506
EURJPY
R 3: 167.82
R 2: 165.59
R 1: 164.41
CURRENT: 162.80
S 1: 161.61
S 2: 160.14
S 3: 158.61
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4265
R 2: 1.4219
R 1: 1.4142
CURRENT: 1.4035
S 1: 1.4025
S 2: 1.3891
S 3: 1.3819
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Market Brief |
The fierce Usd rally took a breather in Asian session, as traders took profits. The EurUsd edged up slightly to 1.4946, while the UsdJpy fell from 109.80 to 108.37 session lows. The Jpy fueled carry trades weakened on the Yen advance, with EurJpy dropping from 163.67 to 161.63. Fed's Stern toned down his pre-FOMC hawkish statements, which took its toll on Wall Street, warning that it would be a while before US growth is above trend, and the decline in energy prices should lead to easing in headline inflation and inflation expectations. Asian regional indexes are following WS lower, with the Nikkei down -2.10%. European index futures are tracking Asia lower. Crude prices are slightly firmer now, trading at $113.43bll.
In Japan GDP q2 release printed at -0.6%, in line with expectations (down from 1.0% prior reading). This is a clear indication of slowing economic activity, especially in light of domestic demand, which fell by 0.3% y/y. With slowing global demand of capital goods, the outlook for Japan seems gloomy at best.
Norges Bank's interest rate decision is due today and we expect the bank to hold steady at 5.75%. With the recent core inflation reading unexpectedly jumping to 2.9% annualized, the probability of a surprise hike is high, but we are still holding for a September move higher rather than today.
In Australia, the consumer confidence picked up slightly rising to 86.2. But, overall, this reading was the first important pickup in around 12 months, while levels are still weak. Given the downward trend on confidence, we expect this to be more of a one off.
In the UK, today's focus will be the BoE's inflation report. The short term inflation expectations have turned for the worse. May's report had forecasts peaking at a touch below 4.0%, but July's data released today should show a rise to 4.4%. In addition, just a few months ago core inflation was at 1.2% but now is 1.9%...a concerning trend. At the same time, the economic outlook has deteriorated considerably. The overriding question will be: has growth fallen enough to bring back down inflation or has the collapse been too much?
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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