|
|
Midday US Session-Dollar appreciation continues as Traders Bet on a Recovery
August 12, 2008 7:49 PM CEST
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Cad | 0.65 |  | | | Jpy | 0.35 | | | | Nok | 0.12 | | | | Sek | 0.05 | | | | Dkk | 0.05 | | | | Eur | 0.04 | |  | Nzd | -0.04 | | | Chf | -0.18 | | | Gbp | -0.55 | | | Aud | -0.93 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| DJIA Index | 11,705.00 | - 0.54 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,298.70 | - 0.49 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,954.00 | + 0.57 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,553.00 | + 0.28 | | CAC 40 Index | 4,522.00 | - 0.29 | | DAX Index | 6,621.50 | - 0.23 | | SMI Index | 7,316.00 | - 0.46 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 811.98 | - 1.44 | | Silver | 14.54 | - 0.95 | | Crude wti | 113.16 | - 1.14 | | USD Index | 76.25 | + 0.17 | | VIX | 20.92 | + 3.98 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| No Market Events Scheduled | | | |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9070
R 2: 0.8952
R 1: 0.8846
CURRENT: 0.8891
S 1: 0.8836
S 2: 0.8768
S 3: 0.8690
EURJPY
R 3: 167.82
R 2: 165.60
R 1: 164.33
CURRENT: 164.40
S 1: 161.73
S 2: 161.25
S 3: 160.15
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4265
R 2: 1.4220
R 1: 1.4142
CURRENT: 1.4074
S 1: 1.4025
S 2: 1.3890
S 3: 1.3820
|
|
Market Brief |
The Usd continued its climb against majors during the early trading session based on lower oil prices. The EurUsd slid further trading with a 1.48 handle, while the UsdJpy retracted previous gains falling to 109. The GbpUsd dropped an additional 100 pips from yesterday’s close currently trading at 1.90 due to weak economic fundamentals in the UK. Equity markets fell in both the US and Europe based on negative earnings announcements from the financial sector, namely JP Morgan reported a $1.5 Billion loss. Commodity prices continue to see consolidation with oil at 113 and gold at 817. On the fixed income front,
bond yields tightened sharply with the rate on the 2yr down 8bps.
Inflation in France came in better than expected at 3.6% vs. the consensus figure of 3.7%, which is also lower than the previous reading of 4.6%. The ECB expressed that they are not confident that this data point signifies a peak in Eurozone inflation. ECB Governing Member Weber cited that he does not expect the inflation to fall below their target in the next year. Additional comments from the central bank indicate slower growth going forward for the Eurozone economy. UK CPI increased at the highest annualized rate since 1992 to 4.4% and the largest single month move since 1997. In addition, Core CPI rose 1.9% which implies that lower energy costs have not had a substantial effect on the overall price of goods. UK HPI grew at lower rate than expected at 0.6% vs. the consensus figure of 1.5% solidifying the outlook of weak UK growth. The cable dropped substantially over the last week as market fundamentals coincide with the actual price of the currency. We look for further downside potential with a price range between 1.91-1.87 in the near-term.
US financial markets may be seeing a bottom to the recent down cycle we have seen over the last 16 months. It is unclear with the recent price movements in alternative investments, specifically commodities and currencies, traders are making bets that the Fed may look to raise rates within the next year. We are not confident that central bank will not be in a position to tighten in the near-term as volatility in the yield curve points to the possibility of further downside risks in the credit markets. Lower oil prices and stabilization within the credit markets are the two key components for the Fed to be in a position to hike rates. The strengthening trend in dollar trading should persist until more clarity is given in regards to monetary policy, at which point we should see a drastic pull back or additional appreciation within the currency.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
|
|
Asian Session - EurUsd Drops to 6 Month Lows
August 12, 2008 9:41 AM CEST
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.42 | | | | CAD | 0.07 | | | NOK | -0.01 | | | AUD | -0.06 | | | GBP | -0.09 | | | CHF | -0.23 | | | NZD | -0.33 | | | DKK | -0.41 | | | EUR | -0.43 | | | SEK | -0.49 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 13,430.91 | + 1.99 | | Hang Seng Index | 21,859.34 | - 0.18 | | Shanghai Index | 2,470.07 | - 5.20 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,524.20 | + 0.63 | | DAX Index | 6,581.53 | + 0.30 | | SMI Index | 7,286.37 | + 0.33 | | DJIA futures | 11,702.00 | + 0.12 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 854.76 | - 0.21 | | Silver | 15.23 | - 0.58 | | VIX | 20.66 | - 2.31 | | Crude wti | 115.08 | - 0.10 | | USD Index | 75.77 | - 0.10 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| Consumer Prices (Jul) CPI | -0.2%(+4.2 | 0.7%(+3.8% | UK / 8.30 | | Consumer Prices (Jul) Core CPI | +1.7% | +1.6% | UK / 8.30 | | Trade Balance (Jun) | -$62.0bn | -$59.8bn | US / 12.30 | | int'l Mechandise Trade (June) | 5.8bn | 5.5bn | CA / 12.30 | | Monthly Budget Statement (Jul) | -$90.0bn | -$36.4bn | US / 18.00 | | Real GDP % q/q | -0.6% | 1.0 | JP / 23.50 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9070
R 2: 0.8952
R 1: 0.8846
CURRENT: 0.8891
S 1: 0.8836
S 2: 0.8768
S 3: 0.8690
EURJPY
R 3: 167.82
R 2: 165.60
R 1: 164.33
CURRENT: 164.40
S 1: 161.73
S 2: 161.25
S 3: 160.15
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4265
R 2: 1.4220
R 1: 1.4142
CURRENT: 1.4074
S 1: 1.4025
S 2: 1.3890
S 3: 1.3820
|
|
Market Brief |
The Usd saw broad based gains in the Asian session, as commodities continued to come under pressure. The EurUsd fell to a 6 month low to 1.4816, while the UsdJpy trended upwards to 110.23. Crude oil rebounded off lows, but is currently trading safely around $115.00bll, providing momentum to the Usd rally. Wall Street saw a firm finish, but Asian regional equities are currently mixed, with Shanghai significantly lower, down -5.20%, as the China growth story gets questioned. European stock futures are comfortably in the green and are pointing to a higher open (FTSE 0.90%).
Last night, ECB's Smaghi warned that the Eurozone economy is decelerating quicker than originally forecast, and the coming quarters could potentially see extended weakness. He restated Trichet's comments from last week's ECB policy meeting, that risks which were earlier mentioned by the central bank are presently materializing.
In Norway, inflation data released showed underlying CPI surged y/y 2.9%, vs. expectations of 2.6%y/y. Headline inflation also came in elevated at 4.3%. This surge in inflation is the first time since 2002 that core inflation has moved above Norges Bank's long-term target of 2.5%. With the Norge Bank meeting on Wednesday, the expected hold could easily come into question. Currently we expect a hike in September, but with this news we might reconsider.
In Japan, the Industrial production saw a m/m -2.2% decline, creating a flat annualized rate, while consumer confidence dropped to a new record low at 31.4 vs. 32,6 prior reading. As risk appetite stays high and Usd momentum continues, we believe that the Jpy strength is limited.
On the docket today is UK's CPI, after the nasty jump in June's readings (headline inflation 3.8% vs. 3.3% exp while core climbed to 1.6% vs. 1.5% prior). That said, July's figures don't look to bring any real relief. Recent fall in food and energy commodity prices won't show up in these readings. However, with retail sales figures dropping there could be room for easing. Overall, we expected headline to creep up to 4.0% from 3.8%, with inflation peaking in September.
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|