Daily Forex Snapshots

Asian Session - Usd Holds Gains

August 11, 2008 9:27 AM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	JPY	0.22
	CAD	0.02
	CHF	-0.22
	GBP	-0.22
	AUD	-0.26
	SEK	-0.49
	DKK	-0.51
	EUR	-0.51
	NOK	-0.59
	NZD	-0.61

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	13,430.91	+ 1.99
Hang Seng Index	22,063.06	+ 0.81
Shanghai Index	2,470.07	- 5.20
FTSE futures	5,507.00	+ 0.50
DAX futures	6,610.00	+ 0.34
SMI Futures	7,306.00	+ 0.59
DJIA futures	11,680.00	- 0.06

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	859.85	+ 0.37
Silver	15.27	- 0.35
VIX	20.66	- 2.31
Crude wti	116.72	+ 1.31
USD Index	76.08	+ 0.31

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

Producer Prices (Jul) Input	1.0%(+29.8	2.1%(+30.3	UK / 8.30
Producer Prices (Jul) Output	0.5%(+10.3	0.9%(+10.0	UK / 8.30
Producer Prices (Jul) Core	0.4%(+6.5%	0.3%(+6.4%	UK / 8.30
Trade in Goods Balance (Jun)	-£7.4bn	-£7.5bn	UK / 8.30
Housing Starts (jul)	210k	217.8k	CA / 12.15
New Housing Price Index (Jun) m/m	0.0%	0.0%	CA / 12.30

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9206
R 2: 0.9131
R 1: 0.9074
CURRENT: 0.8873
S 1: 0.8889
S 2: 0.8875
S 3: 0.8819

EURJPY
R 3: 169.97
R 2: 169.49
R 1: 167.82
CURRENT: 164.58
S 1: 165.01
S 2: 163.00
S 3: 161.73

USDSGD
R 3: 1.4265
R 2: 1.4219
R 1: 1.4058
CURRENT: 1.4072
S 1: 1.3925
S 2: 1.3819
S 3: 1.3767

Market Brief

The Usd was broadly stronger in Asian session, as market prepare for a heavy week of economic indicators. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of last week aggressive Usd rally was the lack of strong confirmation from other financial markets, specifically rate and oil. The EurUsd strength clearly outpaced the gains in crude prices, while across practically all maturities the interest rate differential between the euro area and US are unchanged. This suggests the Usd is overbought. The EurUsd broke the critical 1.5000 support, trading down to 1.4911, while UsdJpy climbed to 110.40 before easing back to the figure. The AudUsd consolidated around the 0.8860 level, as August Statement of Monetary Policy held no real surprise one way or the other.

In Australia, the Statement of Monetary Policy didnʼt provide evidence that rates would be coming down near term. The main paragraph was unchanged from the last statement "On the assumption that the subdued demand conditions are likely to continue, scope to move to a less restrictive monetary policy stance in the period ahead is increasing." If there was a noticeable change in the statement it was a shift in the usual upbeat tone regarding China and India.

Consideration this week will be focused on if the long-bullish sentiment surrounding the Eur has come to an end, due to the slide in commodity prices and change in market perceptions regarding the direction of ECB monetary policy.

In the UK, todayʼs PPI report might show that prices pressures have peaked. However, the CPI released due Thursday is unlikely to have such positive news. We are expecting CPI to rise to 4.1%, with the potential to peak in September

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