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US Session -Market Volatility is Keeping Prices Constrained
July 09, 2008 5:35 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 1.16 |  | | | CAD | 0.94 | | | | GBP | 0.52 | | | | AUD | 0.49 | | | | DKK | 0.46 | | | | NOK | 0.45 | | | | EUR | 0.43 | | | | SEK | 0.30 | | | | JPY | 0.20 | | | | CHF | 0.12 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 13,052.13 | + 0.14 | | Hang Seng Index | 21,805.81 | + 2.75 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,514.10 | + 1.35 | | CAC 40 Index | 4,328.62 | + 1.24 | | DJIA Index | 11,393.98 | + 0.08 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 2,292.23 | - 0.09 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,275.83 | + 0.16 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 923.50 | + 0.42 | | Silver | 923.50 | + 0.42 | | VIX | 22.92 | - 0.99 | | Crude wti | 136.07 | + 0.02 | | USD Index | 72.65 | + 1.01 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Corporate goods price index, % y/y | 5.3 | 4.7 | JP / 23.50 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9670
R 2: 0.9642
R 1: 0.9565
CURRENT: 0.9575
S 1: 0.9477
S 2: 0.9460
S 3: 0.9409
EURJPY
R 3: 169.45
R 2: 169.15
R 1: 168.62
CURRENT: 168.59
S 1: 167.13
S 2: 166.10
S 3: 166.00
USDSGD
R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3730
CURRENT: 1.3611
S 1: 1.3565
S 2: 1.3506
S 3: 1.3470
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Market Brief |
The dollar slipped in the European session as oil reversed its recent losses. The EurUsd is trading higher at 1.57, while the UsdJpy holds at the low 107 level. The GbpUsd showed strength moving up to 1.97, as the market is looking for the central bank to hold rates the same. Equity markets in Europe were positive, while US stocks are mostly flat on light news and continued uncertainty in the economy. Oil regained ground trading up to 137, while gold also rose to 926. There was heavy buying across the curve in treasuries, with prices up several ticks on the 10yr in particular, traders are looking to hedge losses in the equities.
In the Eurozone, Q1 GDP was revised lower to 0.7% vs. 0.8% in the initial report. While there is still growth, other pockets of the economy confirm the likelihood of a slowdown. The German trade balance fell to 14.4B vs. 17.4B expected representing a decrease in the overall surplus. The French trade balance also declined, coming in at -4.7B as opposed to -3.9B. The market has been generally quiet following the ECB meeting last week, with prices on the EurUsd staying rangebound between the 1.56-1.58 levels. The UK also released negative economic data with trade balance coming slightly lower than expectations at -7.5B vs. -7.4B. In addition, the BRC shop index increased 2.5% from 1.8% in the prior month, which means that the price of retail goods rose. Rising prices and tighter lending standards is placing pressure on the consumer, thus restraining growth. The cable will also remain in a range between 1.96 and 1.98, with limited fundamentals to support a firm move to the upside.
Traders are seeing increased volatility in the US markets, which is shown in the higher price of the VIX. Hedge funds suffered the worst first half performance in 20 years as relative value is becoming difficult to find as multiple asset classes are suffering losses. We probably won’t see significant moves on the dollar until commodity prices move substantially lower than current levels, and the credit crisis shifts into a state of conclusion. It will be interesting to see what the Fed does in September because the beginning of a tightening phase may be indicative of better economic conditions in the US.
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Asian Session - Iran Tests Missile
July 09, 2008 9:44 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | CAD | 0.44 | | | | SEK | 0.38 | | | | DKK | 0.36 | | | | EUR | 0.34 | | | | NOK | 0.34 | | | | NZD | 0.25 | | | | CHF | 0.16 | | | | GBP | 0.15 | | | | JPY | 0.07 | |  | AUD | -0.29 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 13,052.13 | + 0.14 | | Hang Seng Index | 21,577.82 | + 1.68 | | Shanghai Index | 2,920.55 | + 3.75 | | FTSE futures | 5,488.00 | + 0.34 | | DAX futures | 6,410.50 | + 0.73 | | SMI Futures | 6,859.00 | + 0.89 | | DJIA futures | 11,353.00 | - 0.19 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 923.39 | + 0.40 | | Silver | 17.88 | + 0.61 | | VIX | 23.15 | - 10.20 | | Crude wti | 137.25 | + 0.88 | | USD Index | 72.79 | - 0.30 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Trade in Goods & Services Balance (May) | -£4.2bn | -£4.3bn | UK / 8.30 | | Trade in Goods Balance (May) | -£7.4bn | -£7.6bn | UK / 8.30 | | GDP (Q1 Final) q/q(y/y) | +0.8%(+2.2 | +0.8%(+2.2 | EZ / 9.00 | | BRC Shop Price Index (Jun) | -- | +0.6%(+1.8 | UK / 9.00 | | Housing Starts (june) | 218.0 | 221.3 | CA / 12.15 | | Corporate goods price index, % y/y | 5.3 | 4.7 | JP / 23.50 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9670
R 2: 0.9642
R 1: 0.9565
CURRENT: 0.9501
S 1: 0.9477
S 2: 0.9460
S 3: 0.9409
EURJPY
R 3: 169.45
R 2: 169.15
R 1: 168.62
CURRENT: 168.62
S 1: 167.13
S 2: 166.10
S 3: 166.00
USDSGD
R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3730
CURRENT: 1.3635
S 1: 1.3565
S 2: 1.3506
S 3: 1.3470
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Market Brief |
The Usd was weaker in Asian session as news that Iran had tested 9 surface to surface missiles spooked the market. Eurusd trade up from 1.5660 to 1.5728 while UsdJpy slipped from 107.50 to 107.02. Risk sentiment had already been on shaky ground after the Lehman report on Fannie and Freddie and with rising tensions in the region the missile test (actually facts were a little vague) had traders quick to respond. Crude prices rallied back above the $137.00bll mark. Reassurance from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that the central bank will keep assisting financial markets in these turbulent times also helped both the Dollar and equities . In Mr. Bernankes prepared remarks yesterday stating that ``The Federal Reserve is strongly committed'' to financial stability and is ``considering several options, including extending the duration of our facilities for primary dealers beyond year-end,'' did help relieve some pressure.
US Stocks were sharply higher Tuesday, led by banks and transports as oil and natural gas prices retreated. The major indexes finished around their best levels for the session. Asian markets are trading higher this morning on the strength of Wall Street's finish overnight. The Shanghai stocks rose as investors plunge on bargain buying amid the steep recent losses and also on speculation that the Chinese government might need to provide support to the market. USD slipped in Asia after it was reported that Iran had test fired nine long and medium range missiles which could possibly strike as far as Israel. Gold closed lower, pressured by a strong dollar and falling crude prices ; the most active Aug '08 contract down $5.50 to $923.30. Sep '08 silver +3.5 ¢ at $17.955/oz.
In Japan machinery orders for May came in much better than expected at 10.4% vs. 5.5% exp while Core orders also strengthened, rising 5.1% vs. 3.4% exp. However while the BoJ expectations (and ours) has continued economic deterioration well entrenched, with markets trading on risk we could see short periods of Jpy strength (but we see those as opportunity to build short Jpy positions).
In Australia consumer sentiment fell -6.7% which was much weaker the Junes -2.0% reading. The number is at its lowest level since 1992 and doesn’t bode well for speculators expecting the RBA to continue higher (and maintain its neutral stance). AudUsd trade down from 0.9549 to 0.9480 on the disappointing data. We will be watching for a sell off in the commodities caused by the global slowdowns and mounting evidence that the RBA will need to shift towards a growth bias before we begin to look for opportunities to sell Aud.
In the UK consumer confidence in June dropped to 61 its lowest since the survey was launched in 2004. In addition the expectations index on the labor market & economy also fell to a new low of 64. Just more evidence that the BoE will need to address the growth side of the story sooner then later.
In European session today, markets will be watching Eurozone GDP (q1 final release) and UK external trade. Euro-zone GDP in Q1will give us a better suggestion of the composition of growth by income while markets will be watching for price change on import prices rather then change in deficit.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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