|
|
US Session - Dollar Holds Ground on Weak Data from Europe
July 07, 2008 7:09 PM CEST
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | CHF | 0.24 |  | | | SEK | 0.19 | | | | EUR | 0.18 | | | | DKK | 0.18 | | | | NOK | 0.15 | | | | JPY | 0.14 | | | | GBP | 0.11 | | | | CAD | 0.09 | | | | NZD | 0.08 | | | | AUD | 0.08 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 13,360.04 | + 0.92 | | Hang Seng Index | 21,913.06 | + 2.28 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,512.70 | + 1.84 | | CAC 40 Index | 4,342.59 | + 1.79 | | SMI Index | 6,815.73 | + 0.63 | | DJIA Index | 11,166.17 | - 1.08 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 2,219.38 | - 1.15 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 927.25 | - 0.63 | | Silver | 17.81 | - 1.51 | | VIX | 26.69 | + 7.66 | | Crude wti | 141.54 | - 2.58 | | USD Index | 72.80 | + 0.09 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| No Additional Releases | -- | -- | -- |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9829
R 2: 0.9700
R 1: 0.9670
CURRENT: 0.9560
S 1: 0.9580
S 2: 0.9535
S 3: 0.9514
EURJPY
R 3: 170.00
R 2: 169.45
R 1: 169.15
CURRENT: 168.19
S 1: 167.13
S 2: 166.10
S 3: 166.00
USDSGD
R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3730
CURRENT: 1.3626
S 1: 1.3565
S 2: 1.3505
S 3: 1.3470
|
|
Market Brief |
The Usd gained in the European session, based mostly on weak economic data out of Europe. The EurUsd traded down to the 1.56 level, while the UsdJpy started moved up to the mid 107 price. The GbpUsd fell below its support level of 1.97 trading at 1.96 based on additional weak UK economic data. Both U.S. and European equity markets are positive, while commodities fell, with oil lower at 140 and gold at 921. Bonds were mixed with little movement in U.S. treasuries, but a move to the upside in European govt. securities.
The UK showed continued weakness with a decline in industrial production to -0.8% vs. -0.1% expected. In addition, manufacturing production also fell to -0.5% vs. an estimate of 0.0%. The cable will experience additional weakness based primarily due to a retraction in economic growth. German industrial output came in much lower than expected -2.4% vs. 0.4% expected. Economists are stating that the negative industrial output numbers are indicative of weak Q2 GDP number. The ECB will have a difficult time combating inflation considering limited growth throughout the Eurozone. The Eur slipped further against the dollar based on this recent economic data to 1.56. We expect to see weakness in the euro and cable in the near term, but a full blown rally in the dollar is unlikely. We also believe that we will see a price target closer to 1.60 on the EurUsd, before we see long term dollar strength.
The US markets showed resilience as oil prices continue to soften, and pending economic data which is set to be released tomorrow. Investors expect positive comments regarding the dollar out of the G8 meeting. Bernanke is also set to speak tomorrow, following pending home sales and consumer credit. A retraction in oil and recovery in the housing market are the central issues in the US, and once we start to move in that direction we should a tightening cycle that set the stage for dollar appreciation.
|
|
Asian Session - FX Markets Seaching for Clues
July 07, 2008 9:50 AM CEST
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
 | NOK | -0.35 | | | GBP | -0.42 | | | CAD | -0.46 | | | EUR | -0.48 | | | DKK | -0.52 | | | NZD | -0.56 | | | SEK | -0.59 | | | AUD | -0.60 | | | JPY | -0.74 | | | CHF | -0.76 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 13,360.04 | + 0.92 | | Hang Seng Index | 21,783.63 | + 1.67 | | Shanghai Index | 2,792.40 | + 4.58 | | FTSE futures | 5,476.00 | + 0.89 | | CAC futures | 4,309.50 | + 0.84 | | SMI Futures | 6,835.00 | + 0.57 | | DJIA futures | 11,296.00 | + 0.53 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 922.53 | - 1.14 | | Silver | 17.87 | - 1.27 | | VIX | 24.79 | - 4.36 | | Crude wti | 143.36 | - 1.36 | | USD Index | 73.09 | + 0.49 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| Manufacturing Output (May) | -0.1%(-0.2 | +0.1%(+0.1 | UK / 8.30 | | Industrial Production (May) | -0.1%(-0.8 | +0.2%(+0.2 | UK / 8.30 | | Industrial Production (May) | +0.2%(+3.2 | -0.8%(+4.8 | GE / 10.00 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9829
R 2: 0.9700
R 1: 0.9670
CURRENT: 0.9576
S 1: 0.9580
S 2: 0.9535
S 3: 0.9514
EURJPY
R 3: 170.00
R 2: 169.45
R 1: 169.15
CURRENT: 167.99
S 1: 167.13
S 2: 166.10
S 3: 166.00
USDSGD
R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3730
CURRENT: 1.3647
S 1: 1.3565
S 2: 1.3505
S 3: 1.3470
|
|
Market Brief |
Usd is stronger against every major currency in the Asian session as speculation grows that the G8 meeting will focus on record high oil prices. EurUsd continued to decline from Thursdays sell-off, sliding to 1.5623 (on rumors that German bonds were to be redeemed rather then re-invested) while UsdJpy traded to 107.52 (7 day high). GbpUsd dropped from 1.9820 to 1.9722 as the market began to once again question the stability of the UK underlying economy. Carry trades gained on renewed Jpy selling and declining risk aversion, pushing EurJpy to 168.07 and AudJpy 103.12. The tight correlation between oil & Usd has lessened slightly in recent day with wti stable around the 143.50bll level while the Usd has taken a bullish tone. After the long weekend in the States, investors have been able to take stock and decide how to react to the Trichet statement that followed the ECB raising rates and the U.S. payroll numbers last Thursday.
Trading was still subdued despite the Usd strength with investors looking for more clues on the U.S. economic situation and to see if the Federal Reserve will be in a position to raise interest rates any time soon. Many will look towards comments from Fed officials over the coming days and in particular to Chairman Bernanke who may give some support to the Dollar during the week ahead.
Asian markets mostly trading higher this morning. Bargain hunters have taken the Nikkei from a 0.5% morning loss to a 1.0% afternoon gain as the market hopes to break its streak of 12 consecutive declines. Banks and exporters were popular choices. But, volumes were thin since the US was closed 4-Jul and could therefore not provide any direction. Chinese banks and airlines led Hong Kong and Shanghai up, but banks led a fall in Sydney over concerns about global credit markets. Also, miners and metals fell in Sydney.
BoJ Governor Shirakawa spoke saying said that global inflationary risks were growing and Japan's economy was slowing due to high energy and commodity prices. A very familiar script and preparing the market for the BoJs growth forecast downgrade expected this week.
A light calendar today will have the markets focused on the UKs Industrial production. The abrupt decline in the output balance of the June CIPS/RBS report on manufacturing suggests that output will soon be collapsing. We have already seen the Gbp come under significant selling pressure and expected the GbpUsd to continued to trade down (in choppy trading) to the 1.9300 mid term.
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|