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US Session-Dollar Extends Recent Rally on Lower Oil and Positive News
July 29, 2008 11:59 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Gbp | 0.03 |  | | | Sek | 0.02 | | | | Nok | 0.02 | | | | Chf | 0.02 | | | | Eur | 0.02 | | | | Dkk | 0.01 | | | | Jpy | 0.01 | |  | Aud | -0.02 | | | Nzd | -0.03 | | | Cad | -0.05 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 11,370.00 | - 0.03 | | S&P future | 1,261.80 | - 0.05 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,842.25 | + 0.01 | | FTSE futures | 5,316.50 | + 0.08 | | DAX futures | 6,442.50 | + 0.84 | | CAC 40 Index | 4,331.50 | - 0.08 | | SMI Futures | 7,007.00 | + 0.44 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 918.55 | - 0.04 | | Silver | 17.37 | - 0.83 | | VIX | 22.03 | - 9.08 | | Crude wti | 122.09 | - 2.12 | | USD Index | 73.31 | + 0.91 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9794
R 2: 0.9675
R 1: 0.9637
CURRENT: 0.9580
S 1: 0.9527
S 2: 0.9477
S 3: 0.9451
EURJPY
R 3: 171.81
R 2: 171.07
R 1: 169.97
CURRENT: 169.41
S 1: 167.50
S 2: 166.01
S 3: 165.33
USDSGD
R 3: 1.3826
R 2: 1.3717
R 1: 1.3661
CURRENT: 1.3626
S 1: 1.3567
S 2: 1.3501
S 3: 1.3448
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Market Brief |
The Usd showed considerable strength in the European session based on additional positive economic data out of the US. The EurUsd traded through the prior support level of 1.56 to the high 1.55 price area, while the UsdJpy rose sharply to the 108 level. The GbpUsd is trading with a 1.97 handle, down significantly from previous close near 1.99 due mostly to the recent turnaround in the dollar. The Equity markets saw triple digit gains in the US, and also a positive move to the upside in Europe based on better than expected economic news and rhetoric that writedowns from major banks may be concluding. Bond Traders continued to sell off govt. securities as risk returns to the marketplace with lighter pressure from commodity prices with oil down to 122 and gold off 11.20 at 916.
Regional CPI in Germany came out mixed, with surprising results to the upside. Eurozone CPI is projected to come in around 4.1%, confirming the possibility for further inflationary pressure to the consumer. Consumer confidence in France fell to -48, which is slightly worse than market expectations of -47. If the consumer based data continues to point to the downside the ECB will be prompted to take some type of action against weaker growth. The EurUsd slid over 100 pips in today’s trading session and with the recent break in support there is certainly a higher potential for additional downside risks. The UK continued its trend of negative economic data which is reflected in the cable’s recent losses. Mortgage approvals dropped to 36k, which is a 1k less than the estimated figure. The CBI reading fell to its lowest levels in 25yrs and is currently running beneath the running average of +25. We maintain our bearish outlook on the cable, with expectations of the GbpUsd to fall to 1.93 closer to yearend.
The US financial markets demonstrated great resilience today, with a rally mostly inspired by lackluster economic figures. Even though consumer confidence and the Case and Schiller came in better than expected, the expectations are still negative and should be reason enough for us to remain cognizant of the current state of affairs in the US economy. Consumer confidence came in at 51.9 vs. 50.1 estimated, and the CS Home Price Index also came in slightly better than estimated at -15.78%. This is an eventful week, but regardless of what we see in terms of news on the economic side, oil remains a controlling factor. With oil trading at the 122 level it provides the Usd an opportunity to sustain a longer term appreciation without the heavy inflationary pressure from commodities. We hold our view that the dollar can approach the 1.50 level towards year-end vs. the Euro.
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Asian Session - Waiting for Fresh Data
July 29, 2008 9:23 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NOK | 0.15 | | | | CAD | 0.10 | | | | AUD | 0.05 | | | | EUR | 0.01 | | | DKK | -0.01 | | | GBP | -0.02 | | | CHF | -0.04 | | | SEK | -0.10 | | | JPY | -0.13 | | | NZD | -0.33 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 13,159.45 | - 1.45 | | Hang Seng Index | 22,209.42 | - 2.10 | | Shanghai Index | 2,850.31 | - 1.81 | | FTSE futures | 5,312.50 | - 0.79 | | DAX futures | 6,325.00 | - 1.00 | | SMI Futures | 6,976.00 | - 0.67 | | DJIA futures | 11,132.00 | - 0.03 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 931.65 | + 0.76 | | Silver | 17.59 | + 0.43 | | VIX | 24.23 | + 5.76 | | Crude wti | 125.22 | + 0.39 | | USD Index | 72.69 | + 0.05 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| M4 Money Supply (Jun Final) | -- | (+11.5%)p | UK / 8.30 | | Consumer Credit (Jun) | +£1.0bn | +£1.4bn | UK / 8.30 | | BoE Mortgage Approvals (Jun) | 37K | 42K | UK / 8.30 | | German Regional CPI | -- | -- | GE / 9.00 | | CBI Distributive Trades Report (Jul) | -15 | -9 | UK / 10.00 | | Case-Shiller 20-City House Price Index (May) | -16.0% | -15.3% | US / 13.00 | | Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul) | 50 | 50.4 | US / 14.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9794
R 2: 0.9675
R 1: 0.9637
CURRENT: 0.9580
S 1: 0.9527
S 2: 0.9477
S 3: 0.9451
EURJPY
R 3: 171.81
R 2: 171.07
R 1: 169.97
CURRENT: 169.41
S 1: 167.50
S 2: 166.01
S 3: 165.33
USDSGD
R 3: 1.3826
R 2: 1.3717
R 1: 1.3661
CURRENT: 1.3626
S 1: 1.3567
S 2: 1.3501
S 3: 1.3448
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Market Brief |
The Usd was constricted to a tight range in the Asian session, as a lack of new data kept traders on the sideline. The EurUsd traded between 1.5737 – 1.5754, while the UsdJpy trended slightly lower from 107.60 to 107.30, on a string of stronger figures. The Jpy fueled carry trades were unchanged, with the king of carry,the TryJpy, trading around 88.950. Oil followed gold slightly higher to $124.98bll & $931.50oz. The US stock markets were sharply lower ( as financial shares led the DJIA and S&P -2.11% and -1.85% respectively), pushing down Asian indexes and European futures. The FDIC's seizure of two smaller failed banks, over the weekend weighed on sentiment and cast cloud over the health of the US's consumer banking sector. Quietly, the VIX has crept back up to 24.23, but FX 1 month implied vols are steadily easing. Oil prices seem to be the critical driver in Usd pricing, ahead of the late week's data releases.
In Japan, the economic data came out stronger than expected. Retail Sales for June printed at 0.0% vs. -0.5% exp m/m (0.3% vs. -0.2% exp y/y). Household Survey was also stronger than the expectations, but the outlook is gloomy: Household Survey shows that real spending in June fell -1.8% vs. -2.8% exp. However, the number of respondents (in the Cabinet office survey), which indicated that they would cut back on dining out and entertaining spending, significantly exceed those who were looking to increase spending. BoJ's Nishimura spoke with the media and said that the BoJ's policy was 'wide open' between increasing upside inflation and downside growth risks.
In New Zealand, Building permits for June fell less than expected to -20.1 vs. -42.3% prior reading. While the NzdUsd received a slight boost on the release trading up to 0.7457, we don't expect the gains to hold.
Market will be watching a string of UK data in European session. The CBI Distributive Trades Survey has stabilized in the past couple of months, but it still highlights weak demand. Spending on summer clearance sales are reported to have been strong, but with consumers coming under pressure from rising inflation, the threat of unemployment and the fall of housing prices, we don't expect spending to stay buoyant. The number of mortgage approvals for new house purchase fell below their early 1990s lows in May and are expected to fall further in June. Supported by the British Bankers Association, figures already released are showing a fall last week. While the weak fundamental data will be tempered by inflation concerns, we are expecting some weakness in Gbp today on the negative data.
German regional CPI numbers will released throughout the day, along with the final national figure. With consensus at 3.1% we expect headline CPI to surprise to the upside.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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