|
|
US Session-Dollar Falls on Housing Market Concerns
July 28, 2008 10:10 PM CEST
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Nzd | 0.43 |  | | | Sek | 0.38 | | | | Jpy | 0.28 | | | | Nok | 0.28 | | | | Chf | 0.27 | | | | Eur | 0.26 | | | | Dkk | 0.27 | | | | Gbp | 0.16 | | | | Aud | 0.06 | |  | Cad | -0.29 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| DJIA Index | 11,165.00 | - 1.33 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,239.30 | - 1.16 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,810.00 | - 1.66 | | FTSE futures | 5,277.50 | - 1.45 | | CAC 40 Index | 4,309.50 | - 1.80 | | DAX Index | 6,352.50 | - 2.06 | | SMI Index | 6,976.00 | - 0.63 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 930.43 | + 0.06 | | Silver | 17.48 | + 0.42 | | VIX | 24.02 | + 4.85 | | Crude wti | 124.66 | + 1.14 | | USD Index | 72.65 | - 0.29 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| No Major Releases Scheduled | | | |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9795
R 2: 0.9675
R 1: 0.9637
CURRENT: 0.9555
S 1: 0.9525
S 2: 0.9477
S 3: 0.9450
EURJPY
R 3: 171.80
R 2: 171.07
R 1: 169.97
CURRENT: 169.13
S 1: 167.50
S 2: 166.00
S 3: 165.33
USDSGD
R 3: 1.3826
R 2: 1.3717
R 1: 1.3660
CURRENT: 1.3638
S 1: 1.3563
S 2: 1.3500
S 3: 1.3448
|
|
Market Brief |
The Usd fell in the European session based on pessimism surrounding the current state of the housing market. The EurUsd traded nearly 50 pips higher at the mid 1.57 price, while the UsdJpy fell to the mid 107 area. The GbpUsd rebounded trading with a 1.99 handle based primarily on dollar weakness. Equity markets dropped sharply in both the US and Europe, as concerns regarding the credit markets prompted a selloff in financials. Commodities are trading marginally higher, and we haven’t seen any substantial move to the upside or downside during the trading session, with oil at 123 and gold at 928. Bond yields tightened substantially, as risk aversion returned the marketplace, as investors look for safety in more secure assets.
German GfK consumer confidence came failed to meet expectations coming in at 2.1 vs. the consensus figure of 3.5. The drop in consumer confidence resulted in a slight retraction in the early part of the trading session, and solidifies the global softening in economic growth which has spread from the US to Europe. Economists are forecasting a 35% chance that the Eurozone will fall into a recession. Although the euro saw some weakness early on, the market was unwilling to liquidate their long EurUsd positions ahead of key financial data out of the US this week (GDP, Non-Farm Payrolls, and ISM Index). The EurUsd should stay rangebound between 1.56-1.59 in this week’s trading session, but we sustain our outlook for the EurUsd to move lower below the 1.50 price before year-end.
The US financial markets experienced triple digit losses in the Dow today, based on credit market concerns. The IMF stated that “there is no end in sight to the housing slump,” and the market reacted in a move to aggressive selling across the board. The key economic data points which are scheduled to be announced this week, will weigh heavily on the Usd. The GDP and Non-Farm Payroll numbers will be critical in assessing what position the Fed will be in to tighten monetary policy. The market expectations for GDP are at 2.3%, any drastic variation up or down will have a significant impact the Usd.
|
|
Asian Session - NZD Artificially Strong
July 28, 2008 8:58 AM CEST
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.23 | | | | SEK | 0.23 | | | | NZD | 0.18 | | | | CHF | 0.17 | | | | EUR | 0.07 | | | | DKK | 0.06 | | | | CAD | 0.05 | | | | NOK | 0.03 | | | GBP | -0.07 | | | AUD | -0.18 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 13,353.78 | + 0.14 | | Hang Seng Index | 22,822.89 | + 0.36 | | Shanghai Index | 2,898.44 | + 1.16 | | FTSE futures | 5,355.00 | - 0.10 | | DAX futures | 6,467.00 | - 0.29 | | SMI Futures | 7,020.00 | - 0.56 | | DJIA futures | 11,339.00 | + 0.20 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 930.58 | + 0.07 | | Silver | 17.43 | + 0.11 | | VIX | 22.91 | - 2.26 | | Crude wti | 123.56 | + 0.24 | | USD Index | 72.86 | + 0.01 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| No Majopr Releases Scheduled | -- | -- | -- |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9795
R 2: 0.9675
R 1: 0.9637
CURRENT: 0.9555
S 1: 0.9525
S 2: 0.9477
S 3: 0.9450
EURJPY
R 3: 171.80
R 2: 171.07
R 1: 169.97
CURRENT: 169.13
S 1: 167.50
S 2: 166.00
S 3: 165.33
USDSGD
R 3: 1.3826
R 2: 1.3717
R 1: 1.3660
CURRENT: 1.3638
S 1: 1.3563
S 2: 1.3500
S 3: 1.3448
|
|
Market Brief |
The Usd was stronger at the start of the trading week in the Asian session. The EurUsd traded around the 1.5700 levels, while the UsdJpy failed to hold above the 108.00 level, slipping down to 107.84 as the day progressed. The NZD was supported by heavy margin buying, according to the Tokyo Financial Exchange publicly released data last week. The UsdNzd was able to rally of the 0.7409 session low to 0.7439. The UsdMxn saw a massive gap on the open, spiking from 10.0200 to 10.1229, as the BANXICO announced the end of its daily selling net fx reserves from accumulated oil revenues. The Jpy fueled carry trades continued to perform well, as risk declined and Japanese economic fundamentals erode. The EurJpy continued to rally from Friday's sell off, which saw 167.50 lows to Asian session 169.70 highs. The Asian stock markets are following the US higher, with Shanghai up 1.78%. Commodities are slightly firmer with wti crude trading up 0.28% to $123.61brl.
Despite the sudden resurgence in the Nzd strength, due partially to the excessive buying of Japanese margin traders and low liquidity, we expect to Nzd to weaken considerable in the coming week. Trade balance narrowed with imports falling on slowing demand but exports grew unexpectedly. With a "normal" monetary policy rate round 6.00% - 6.25% levels and the RBNZ clearly signaling a shift to a growth focus, the interest rate differential long enjoyed by the kiwi will unravel.
No major events or economic data scheduled for release in the UK or Eurozone.
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|