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US Session - Market Trades Flat as FOMC Meets
June 24, 2008 6:14 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NOK | 0.98 |  | | | CHF | 0.71 | | | | AUD | 0.57 | | | | EUR | 0.51 | | | | DKK | 0.50 | | | | SEK | 0.39 | | | | GBP | 0.38 | | | | NZD | 0.28 | | | | CAD | 0.23 | | | | JPY | 0.08 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 13,849.56 | - 0.05 | | Nikkei 225 Index | 22,456.02 | - 1.14 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,634.70 | - 0.57 | | DAX Index | 6,536.06 | - 0.81 | | SMI Index | 7,026.08 | - 0.81 | | DJIA Index | 11,859.62 | + 0.14 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,320.60 | + 0.19 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 890.25 | + 0.72 | | Silver | 16.82 | + 0.11 | | VIX | 22.22 | - 1.18 | | Crude wti | 136.71 | - 0.02 | | USD Index | 73.17 | - 0.36 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Retail Sale (apr) | 3.4% | -0.5% | MX / 22.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9655
R 2: 0.9649
R 1: 0.9587
CURRENT: 0.9575
S 1: 0.9493
S 2: 0.9448
S 3: 0.9405
EURJPY
R 3: 170.00
R 2: 169.10
R 1: 168.25
CURRENT: 168.07
S 1: 166.77
S 2: 166.00
S 3: 165.53
USDMXN
R 3: 10.4695
R 2: 10.4690
R 1: 10.3880
CURRENT: 10.29
S 1: 10.2650
S 2: 10.2500
S 3: 10.2000
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Market Brief |
The Usd moved slightly lower in the European session as the market anticipated weaker economic data to be released today. The EurUsd traded in the 1.55-1.56 range, while the UsdJpy remains at the mid 107 level. The GbpUsd Is trading at the 197 level with little price movement pending the upcoming FOMC decision tomorrow, we still maintain our price target of 1.93 over the next several months. Equity markets are trading lower in Europe as well as the US, while commodities are mixed with oil trading slightly higher at 137, also metals dropped with gold at 893 and silver at 16. Bonds continue to move higher indicating that we are likely to see a hold by the Fed, and the tightening in the 2yr spread should be a solid indicator as to where the Fed Funds rate goes in the near-term.
Economic activity in the Eurozone was mixed, with data which was released in France and Germany today. French consumer spending came in higher than expected at 2.0% vs. the consensus figure of 0.6%. German consumer confidence fell to 3.9% vs. 4.6% expected, while this is a volatile number it lends to the notion that growth is still a concern for the ECB. Mortgage applications in the UK fell to its lowest levels since 1986 at 28k from 34.8k last month. The housing situation in the UK is clearly placing pressure on the consumer, which may force the BoE to remain dovish regarding monetary policy until conditions stabilize.
In the US, the Case and Schiller HPI (Home Price Index) dropped 15.3% vs. 16.0% expected. While this data point came in better than expected, double digit declines in housing prices confirm that the real-estate market is in a severe state. An additional point to keep in mind is that as home prices drop, the wealth of consumer who is a homeowner also declines, which may in turn have an effect on consumer confidence. With that said, consumer confidence came in lower at 50.4 vs. 56.4 expected. The Fed will keep the weaker economic data in mind as we expect to hear a rate decision tomorrow as the FOMC meeting winds down. We hold our view that the dollar should start to appreciate towards the end of the year, but weak economic growth and rising oil prices should keep us in the range of 1.54-1.60 in the near-term
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Asian Session - Light Trading in Asia
June 24, 2008 9:44 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | CHF | 0.37 | | | | NOK | 0.36 | | | | SEK | 0.34 | | | | EUR | 0.32 | | | | DKK | 0.29 | | | | GBP | 0.26 | | | | AUD | 0.27 | | | | CAD | 0.01 | |  | NZD | -0.01 | | | JPY | -0.28 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 13,849.56 | - 0.05 | | Hang Seng Index | 22,662.05 | - 0.23 | | Shanghai Index | 2,803.02 | + 1.54 | | FTSE futures | 5,706.00 | + 0.65 | | DAX futures | 6,670.00 | + 0.02 | | SMI Futures | 7,050.00 | - 0.57 | | DJIA futures | 11,855.00 | + 0.20 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 884.85 | + 0.11 | | Silver | 16.77 | - 0.14 | | VIX | 22.64 | - 1.00 | | Crude wti | 136.65 | - 0.06 | | USD Index | 73.39 | - 0.06 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| BBA Mortgage Lending (May) | -- | 38,704 | UK / 9.30 | | Case-Shiller 20-City House Price Index (Apr) | -15.9% | -14.4% | US / 14.00 | | Conference Board Consumer Conf. Index (Jun) | 56.4 | 57.2 | US / 15.00 | | Richmond Fed Manuf. (june) | -5 | -3 | US / 15.00 | | Retail Sales (inegi) | 2.4% | -0.5% | MX / 20.30 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9655
R 2: 0.9648
R 1: 0.9578
CURRENT: 0.9543
S 1: 0.9491
S 2: 0.9448
S 3: 0.9404
EURJPY
R 3: 170.00
R 2: 169.10
R 1: 168.13
CURRENT: 168.16
S 1: 166.77
S 2: 166.00
S 3: 165.52
USDSGD
R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3729
CURRENT: 1.3694
S 1: 1.3634
S 2: 1.3581
S 3: 1.3554
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Market Brief |
Usd was stable in the Asian session as speculators have begun to position themselves in front of Wednesday FOMC rate announcement. EurUsd started to gain some positive momentum, trading up to 1.5538 from 1.5495 while the UsdJpy tested the 108.20 resistance twice as the Asian day progressed. With a light event calendar in Europe and markets still uncertain as to the direction of the Fed we would expect market activity to be subdued and range-bound.
US stocks ended mostly weaker Monday as concerns about the outlook for financial companies weighed and crude oil prices climbed higher. Asian markets trading mixed this morning following Wall Street's mixed performance and on the back of higher oil prices. Japanese steelmaker shares fell after China agreed to record iron-ore price increases from Rio Tinto. Oil prices rallied despite the bounce in the dollar and a pledge from the Saudis to increase production by 200K bpd; the Aug '08 contract up $1.38 to $136.74. Gold closed with losses as the strength in the dollar dulled demand for the precious metal; the most active Aug '08 contract down $16.50 to $887.20. Jul '08 silver -60.7 ¢ at $16.790/oz.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Monday urged oil-producing nations to boost their output and warned that soaring energy costs threatened to prolong a U.S. economic slowdown. "This is a very, very important issue because the high price of oil is creating economic issues...and is a heavy burden for people around the world"
The US markets will be expecting a decline in the Case-Shiller 20-city house price index. The enormous inventory of unsold homes will likely pull down home prices further and will keep the risks to the downside. We expect the FOMC to hold rates tomorrow. The housing market is a source of worry for the Fed and a hike will not be welcomed given present market conditions, just another reason the Fed will hold rates. We believe the market should tone down its expectations for an aggressive inflation fighting statement and therefore possible short term Usd weakness.
Yesterday, the German Ifo business climateindex fell to 101.3 in June (lowest since December 2005). The decline was helped by a softer assessment of the current business situation and a fall in the business expectations index. However the long-run average and the survey still points to only a moderate slowdown Germany economic activity.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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