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US Session - Dollar Rallies Despite Weak Economic Data.
June 13, 2008 7:05 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | AUD | 0.53 |  | | | GBP | 0.23 | | | | NZD | 0.07 | | | | JPY | 0.01 | |  | SEK | -0.04 | | | DKK | -0.18 | | | EUR | -0.19 | | | CHF | -0.29 | | | NOK | -0.46 | | | CAD | -0.67 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 13,973.73 | + 0.61 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,802.80 | + 0.21 | | CAC 40 Index | 4,682.30 | + 0.21 | | DAX Index | 6,765.32 | + 0.75 | | DJIA Index | 12,223.16 | + 0.67 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 2,438.81 | + 1.43 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,350.00 | + 0.75 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 868.94 | + 0.08 | | Silver | 16.53 | + 0.30 | | VIX | 21.88 | - 6.21 | | Crude wti | 135.07 | - 1.22 | | USD Index | 74.05 | + 0.22 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9655
R 2: 0.9648
R 1: 0.9527
CURRENT: 0.9382
S 1: 0.9304
S 2: 0.9290
S 3: 0.9220
EURJPY
R 3: 169.10
R 2: 167.65
R 1: 167.15
CURRENT: 166.01
S 1: 164.99
S 2: 162.25
S 3: 161.70
USDSGD
R 3: 1.3940
R 2: 1.3889
R 1: 1.3850
CURRENT: 1.3799
S 1. 1.3700
S 2: 1.3580
S 3: 1.3554
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Market Brief |
The Usd moved higher in the European session mostly due to Traders beliefs that the Fed will raise rates by the end of the year, as well as an EU policy that may have been rejected by Irish voters. The EurUsd traded through the 1.54 level to 1.53, marking the largest one week again in nearly three years. UsdJpy touched the 108 level, and continues to trade in the high 107-108 range, confirming our bearish outlook on the yen. The GbpUsd is trading at 1.94, we still are confident the cable will break through resistance levels to 1.93.
Both European and US equity markets traded higher across the board, while gold fell $4 to $867 and oil dropped to $134. Bonds rose moderately due to weak consumer confidence numbers, and a rise in the CPI index by 0.6%.
Inflationary concerns remain a major challenge for the UK in European session; the May inflation print to be released next Tuesday will be a vital data point in gauging whether the BoE will tighten. German CPI was released and remained the same as last month at 3.0%, while the EU-harmonized prices were revised upward to 3.1% vs. 3.0% exp. In addition, labor cost rose to 3.3% from 2.9% thus providing further certainty that the ECB will raise rates next meeting.
The US market is looking to close out the week strong despite weaker economic data. Consumer confidence fell to 56.7 from 59.8, while CPI rose as mentioned above. While some portion of the market seems certain the Fed will tighten next meeting, there seems to be a degree of divergence from the way bonds are trading in the US session. The Usd rallied against most of the G10 this week, but the notion that a rate hike is priced in, may be something very important to monitor in upcoming trading.
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Asian Session - BoJ Holds at 0.50%
June 13, 2008 9:39 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | AUD | 0.51 | | | | SEK | 0.12 | | | | JPY | 0.02 | | | | EUR | 0.02 | | | | NZD | 0.02 | | | GBP | -0.01 | | | CHF | -0.01 | | | DKK | -0.02 | | | NOK | -0.07 | | | CAD | -0.13 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 13,973.73 | + 0.61 | | Hang Seng Index | 22,825.42 | - 0.81 | | Shanghai Index | 2,868.80 | - 3.00 | | FTSE futures | 5,780.00 | - 0.16 | | DAX futures | 6,702.00 | - 0.31 | | SMI Futures | 7,217.00 | + 0.04 | | DJIA futures | 12,172.00 | + 0.13 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 870.24 | + 0.24 | | Silver | 16.53 | + 0.27 | | VIX | 23.33 | - 3.27 | | Crude wti | 136.31 | - 0.31 | | USD Index | 73.86 | - 0.01 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Labour Costs (Q1) | 2.9% | 2.7% | EZ / 10.00 | | Employment (Q1) q/q(y/y) | -- | 0.2%(+1.7% | EZ / 10.00 | | Consumer Price Index (May) | 0.5%(+3.9% | +0.2%(+3.9 | US / 13.30 | | Core Consumer Price Index (May) | +0.2%(+2.3 | 0.1%(+2.3% | US / 13.30 | | Manufactoring Shipments (apr) m/m | 0.5% | -1.6% | CA / 13.30 | | Labor Productivity (1Q) | -0.4% | -0.8% | CA / 13.30 | | Univ. of Michigan Cons. Conf. Index (Jun Prov.) | 59.0 | 59.8 | US / 15.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9655
R 2: 0.9648
R 1: 0.9527
CURRENT: 0.9385
S 1: 0.9304
S 2: 0.9290
S 3: 0.9220
EURJPY
R 3: 169.10
R 2: 167.65
R 1: 167.15
CURRENT: 166.30
S 1: 164.99
S 2: 162.25
S 3: 161.70
USDSGD
R 3: 1.3940
R 2: 1.3889
R 1: 1.3850
CURRENT: 1.3783
S 1. 1.3700
S 2: 1.3580
S 3: 1.3554
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Market Brief |
Usd was broadly stable in Asian session as a lack of real data kept trading light. EurUsd was range-bound from 1.5410 to 1.5480 while the UsdJpy was constricted to 108.00 to 107.70 range. UsdNzd traded from 0.7490 to 0.7529 and UsdCad traded from 1.0217 to 1.0247. Gold recover slightly to 872.85spot and oil WTI rose to 136.60. US stock markets closed in the green and Asian markets are currently mixed. European stock markets are poised to open higher with the DAX leading the way.
In Japan the BoJ held rates at 0.50% as was universally expected. Inflation fears have increased in Japan so it will be interesting to hear if Shirakawa will shift its focus from sagging economic outlook to inflation (however CPI slowed to 0.9% but is expect to accelerate to 1.4% in May). Industrial production for April y/y tick up softly to 1.9% vs. 1.8% exp (but still a sign of a weak economy), while consumer confidence fell to 34.1 vs. 35.0 exp. - Lowest level since December 2001. Despite the rising VIX Jpy funded carry trades continue to perform on the back of hawkish CB inflation rhetoric. The G8 talks begin today in Osaka and we expect to hear official comment on inflation and FX throughout the day.
New Zealand Retail sales April m/m rose by 1.0% vs. 0.4% exp primarily due to an 8.1% spike in car sales. We expect this unexpected jump to be a one off as higher food and fuel prices wear away incomes and housing decline and softening labor market increase pressure on the consumer.
In the euro-zone the labor market data is expect to show a concerning combo of weak employment growth and increasing wages. Employment has stopped falling in recent months and employment intentions have also tick upwards. We expect the data to weigh on the Euro intraday.
In the US market the key release will be may CPI. The core driver will be motor fuel component which is expected to add significantly to headline. In addition, University of Michigan survey will help measure whether congress fiscal stimulate has helped improved sentiment or have other factors such as the housing market and gasoline prices continued to cause concern.
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