Daily Forex Snapshots

Asian Session - Bernankes Comments Fade

June 11, 2008 10:28 AM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	NZD	0.62
	AUD	0.24
	CAD	0.15
	DKK	0.12
	EUR	0.11
	NOK	0.08
	GBP	0.07
	SEK	0.07
	CHF	-0.11
	JPY	-0.30

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	14,183.48	+ 1.15
Hang Seng Index	23,393.50	+ 0.07
Shanghai Index	3,024.24	- 1.56
FTSE futures	5,854,00	+ 0.94
DAX futures	6,795.00	+ 0.17
SMI Futures	7,315.00	+ 0.34
DJIA futures	12,331.00	+ 0.44

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	873.70	+ 0.77
Silver	16.63	+ 0.15
VIX	23.18	+ 0.26
Crude wti	132.55	+ 0.94
USD Index	73.57	- 0.17

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

Unemployment Rate (May)	2.5%	2.5%	UK / 9.30
Average Earnings (Apr) (%3myy)	4.1%	4.0%	UK / 9.30
Trade in Goods & Services Balance (Apr)	-£4.0bn	-£4.0bn	UK / 9.30
Trade in Goods Balance (Apr)	-£7.3bn	-£7.4bn	UK / 9.30
New Housing Price Index (apr) m/m	0.3%	0.2%	CA / 13.30
Capacity Utilizaition Rate (1q)	80.8%	81.8%	CA / 13.30
Monthly Budget Statement (May)	-$164.5bn	-$67.7bn	US / 19.00
Fed’s Beige Book	--	--	US / 19.00

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9655
R 2: 0.9648
R 1: 0.9527
CURRENT: 0.9476
S 1: 0.9430
S 2: 0.9392
S 3: 0.9291

EURJPY
R 3: 169.10
R 2: 167.65
R 1: 167.15
CURRENT: 166.63
S 1: 164.97
S 2: 162.27
S 3: 161.73

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3852
R 2: 1.3774
R 1: 1.3746
CURRENT: 1.3713
S 1: 1.3581
S 2: 1.3554
S 3: 1.3470

Market Brief

Usd was mixed Asian session as the US policy makers comments faded into the background. EurUsd trended off the 1.5440 support level moving back towards 1.5500 while UsdJpy broke through the 107.50 resistance to 107.76. Commodity bloc gained slightly asNzdUsd moved cautiously to 0.7548 from 0.7520 and the UsdCad slid to 1.0217 from 1.0246. With continued weakness in the Jpy and US equity markets only slightly lower, carry trades outperformed with EurJpy moving easily to 166.94 while AudJpy had little trouble pushing above 101.80 resistance to 101.91.

Stocks were mostly weaker on Tuesday, with only the Dow managing to close in positive territory. The sell off was led by raw-materials and energy producers as the possibility of higher rates sent oil prices lower. Asian markets were higher this morning, rebounding after early declines as a stronger dollar helped exporters. In Japan, bank stocks fell following a negative broker report, and property stocks slid for the 2nd straight day. Regionally, resource stocks traded broadly lower after crude-oil prices fell in overnight trading. Before climbing back above it, the Shanghai Composite slipped below 3,000 for the first time since April on concerns the govt will step up measures to tame inflation. Oil prices came under pressure for a second straight session, dampened by the bullish tone in the greenback and the IEA's forecast that world oil demand will rise at the slowest pace in six years during 2008; the Jul '08 contract down $3.04 to $131.31.Gold prices were pressured by the stronger dollar and softer oil prices; the most active Aug '08 contract down $26.90 to $871.20. Jul '08 silver -57.5 ¢ at $16.635/oz.

In a surprise move the Bank of Canada held rates at 3.00% and comments that monetary policy was “appropriately accommodative”. As is the global trend it was risks to inflation outlook which the central bank believes to have shifted to the upside. With rates expect to stay unchanged for the near futures (CPI likely peak at 3.0%) we expect to the Cad spike briefly above channel resistance before to trend down roughly to 0.9900 support.

In Japan a wealth of data was released this morning. Most importantly was the second estimate for GDP q1 which was revised up to 1.0% q/q (annualized GDP 4.0% vs. 3.8% exp) as capex was better than expected. However, the positive data did little to prevent the Jpy selling as the overall sentiment on the Japanese economic outlook is decidedly bearish. In addition the recent massive upswing in yields will undercut any Jpy potential.

In Australia Westpac’s consumer confidence sentiment index fell to -5.6% vs. 2.7% prior reading. The data briefly weakened the Aud however the market will be especially keen on RBA Governor Stevens' speech on Friday believing that it will help them guild interest rate expectations (market are currently pricing in almost 2 25bp hike in 2008).

Data from the UK will capture the markets attention in European session. Unemployment rate is expect to stay stable whoever with claimant count on the rise the risk to labor is toward the upside. April Trade data is expected to widen reversing Marches narrowing.

16.30gmt - ECB's Stark speaks
16.30gmt - Fed's Kohn & Fischer speak
18.00gmt - Fed's Bullard speaks

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