Daily Forex Snapshots

Asian Session - Usd Falls

May 05, 2008 9:39 AM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	AUD	0.57
	SEL	0.43
	NZD	0.33
	EUR	0.30
	DKK	0.30
	CHF	0.29
	NOK	0.27
	GBP	0.24
	CAD	0.07
	JPY	-0.05

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	14,049.26	+ 2.05
Hang Seng Index	26.264.74	+ 0.09
Shanghai Index	3,761.01	+ 1.83
DAX futures	7,064.50	- 0.22
CAC futures	5,017.50	- 0.38
SMI Futures	7,663.00	+ 2.10
DJIA futures	13,013.00	- 0.36

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	863.15	+ 0.78
Silver	16.62	+ 1.28
VIX	18.18	- 3.70
Crude wti	116.44	+ 0.10
USD Index	73.29	- 0.29

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

PMI Services (Apr Final)	51.8	51.8p	EZ / 9.00
PMI Composite (Apr Final)	51.9	51.9p	EZ / 9.00
Interest Rate Announcement	10.00%	9.50%	Rom / 9.00
CIPS/RBS Report on Services (Apr)	51.7	52.1	UK / 9.30
Producer Price Index (Mar)	0.7%(+5.6%	0.6%(+5.3%	EZ / 10.00
ISM - Non- Mfg Composite (april)	49.1	49.6	US / 15.00
ABC Consumer Confidence (May 4th)	--	-41	US / 22.00

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9496
R 2: 0.9473
R 1: 0.9445
CURRENT: 0.9402
S 1: 0.9272
S 2: 0.9249
S 3: 0.9206

EURJPY
R 3: 163.88
R 2: 163.25
R 1: 162.62
CURRENT: 162.81
S 1: 160.60
S 2: 159.83
S 3: 159.70

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3887
R 2: 1.3746
R 1: 1.3661
CURRENT: 1.3607
S 1: 1.3554
S 2: 1.3470
S 3: 1.3318

Market Brief

Usd was weaker in Asian session as the markets prepare for a big week in Central Bank announcements. GbpUsd trended up to 1.9766 from 1.9720 while AudUsd bounced off the 21-MA (0.9348) climbing to 0.9412. Jpy funded carry trades were able to reverse last weeks decline with the EurJpy opening above the 5 – MA (162.17) and AudJpy made higher-highs at 99.01. A light week for economic data but heavy on interest rate decisions with the BoE, ECB & RBA ( Korea & Indonesia outside the G10) all announcing.

Last week the focus was on the Usd and the growing sense of optimism around economic data and Fed policy. The highlight was the modest 20k decline in NFP and unexpected fall of unemployment rates to 5.0%. These encouraging signs have increased the probability (temporarily) that the Fed will hold rate in June and was partially the cause for current Usd strength. The easing in oil and commodity prices also gave the greenback support. However both factors have significant downside risks and Usd euphoria might prove short lived. First if history is any guide, then the US labor market could get much worse in the near term with average monthly decline of well over 100k and unemployment creeping up to 5.4%, data consistent with the recessionary number we currently see. Second are the oil and commodity prices which are staying soberly elevated. Many analysts are expecting oil price heading to the 130brl and with solid commodity demand from China these factors will keep the Usd rally contained.

On a side note IMM FX positioning showed speculators closing out of Usd short position in most currencies. The CFTC reports the shift to a net EurUsd short was the first time since 2005 so the recent usd strength was backed by trading positions and any additional position building in Usd favor will have only a minor effect on Usd pricing.

We will cover the Central Bank announcements in depth in our Central Bank Weekly Preview.

ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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