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Asian Session - Usd Strength Continues
May 29, 2008 10:22 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
 | NZD | -0.06 | | | AUD | -0.08 | | | NOK | -0.13 | | | SEK | -0.15 | | | CAD | -0.16 | | | DKK | -0.22 | | | EUR | -0.23 | | | CHF | -0.39 | | | JPY | -0.40 | | | GBP | -0.41 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 14,124.47 | + 3.02 | | Hang Seng Index | 24,234.93 | - 0.06 | | Shanghai Index | 3,401.44 | - 1.66 | | FTSE futures | 6,069.50 | - 0.09 | | DAX futures | 7,083.00 | + 0.31 | | SMI Futures | 7,483.00 | + 0.78 | | DJIA futures | 12,583.00 | - 0.12 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 896.75 | - 0.45 | | Silver | 17.38 | - 0.14 | | VIX | 19.07 | - 2.90 | | Crude wti | 130.65 | - 0.29 | | USD Index | 72.77 | + 0.30 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| M3 Money Supply (Apr) | 10.3% | 10.3% | EZ / 9.00 | | EC Economic Confidence (May) | 96.8 | 97.1 | EZ / 9.00 | | Unemployment Rate (may) m/m | 1.6% | 1.6% | NO / 9.00 | | CBI Distributive Trades (May) | -20 | -26 | UK / 11.00 | | Initial Jobless Claims (May 24th) | 370k | 365k | US / 13.30 | | GDP (Q1 2nd Est.) q/q Ann. | 0.9% | 0.6% | US / 13.30 | | Help Wanted Index (Apr) | 19 | 19 | US / 13.30 | | Current Account (q1) | $2.9b | -$0.5b | CA / 13.30 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9826
R 2: 0.9723
R 1: 0.9655
CURRENT: 0.9614
S 1: 0.9546
S 2: 0.9511
S 3: 0.9392
EURJPY
R 3: 166.17
R 2: 164.98
R 1: 164.51
CURRENT: 163.80
S 1: 163.12
S 2: 162.26
S 3: 161.60
USDSGD
R 3: 1.3774
R 2: 1.3732
R 1: 1.3673
CURRENT: 1.3655
S 1: 1.3566
S 2: 1.3554
S 3: 1.3470
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Market Brief |
Usd continued to strengthen in Asian session despite oils rebound above $130.00bll mark. EurUsd fell to 1.5664 in a late session slide. UsdJpy easily moved through the 105.00 level to 105.19 as Asian equity markets were stronger following Wall Street lead. Risk appetite remains strong, in the face of VIX moving steady upwards to 19.00, carry trades including TryJpy continue to outpace breaking through the 85.60 midterm resistance.
US markets had a volatile day of trading on Wednesday, opening higher, led by some positive retail results and falling crude prices, before markets sold off in the afternoon, as crude rallied. However, by the end of the day, markets closed up, with gains of between 20-40bps. Asian stocks are higher this morning, with the Nikkei up 3.0%, the Hang Seng is up 0.3% and MSCI A-P is up 1.6%. Tech and auto companies led gains, post the US durable goods figures, while commodity producers rose after MS said crude could hit $150 a barrel. BoJ board member Kamezaki spoke today, saying that inflation may rise but is unlikely to go beyond the 0 to 2% range, adding that the BoJ needs to be careful about downside risks to the economy. April retail sales barely increased (+0.1% y/y), weaker than the consensus. As expected, auto and fuel sales were robust (+0.4%p and +0.3% in terms of contribution to overall % change). However, sales in non-auto/fuel items were much weaker than our expectation, which contributed -0.7%p to overall % change.
In the UK Nationwide House Price index recorded the seventh consecutive monthly house price fall m/m -2.5% vs. -0.5% exp , y/y -4.4% vs. -2.1% exp. Given the decline in mortgage finance and low buyers interest there doesn’t seem to be a light at the end of the tunnel for the UK housing market. While we are wary to go against recent Gbp strength (brief spike above 2.100), we are willing to wait for the market to recognize the inevitability of BoE easing and subsequent cutting of IR and Gbp fall.
In Australia private sector capex for q1 dropped by 2.5% q/q vs. a 3% q/q exp. The fall was due to a 0.8% q/q decline in building & construction and a massive 2.6% q/q decline in plant & equipment. However the negative data did little to halt the AudUsd forward momentum as it broke thru 0.9600 resistance.
While the fireworks will truly begin in the US session, markets will be watching May’s euro-zone EC Survey which is expected to provide evidence that underlying economic activity is declining moderately.
We are expecting a very busy day on both the economic data front and policy makers on the wires. Fed’s Fisher started the proceedings overnight, commenting that inflation in the US is a larger & unacceptable risk to the economy then declining growth and will influence Fed member’s votes.
14.00gmt - Fed's Geithner speaks
19.30gmt - Fed's Bernanke speaks
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